Canada’s MoH, PHAC & CPHO: the “new” model fixes nothing. It’s wrong to set your sights on a “slow burn” target. This thread explains.

#Go2Zero ⁦⁩
⁦⁦@CBCNews⁩ : “PHAC officials are aiming for a ‘slow burn’ scenario, in which the number.. 1/ cbc.ca/news/politics/…
Canada’s MoH, PHAC, & CPHO are wrong on “slow burn”:
..of cases remains low enough for the public health care system to keep ahead of the influx of patients.”
“Slow burn” assumes you can control the virus, but you can’t. It’s a pandemic; the virus spreads easily.
#Go2Zero 2/
Canada’s MoH, PHAC, & CPHO are wrong on “slow burn”:
It’s a pandemic of a dangerous virus that spreads easily. “Slow burn” so cases won’t overwhelm hospitals is pretty calculating.
Who says how many deaths or long-term illness? There is no acceptable number of cases. #Go2Zero 3/
Canada’s MoH, PHAC, & CPHO are wrong on “slow burn”:
It’s a pandemic of a novel virus that grows exponentially. You don’t know all the model parameters and variables with certainty. So an attempt to control to just so many new cases via “slow burn” is doomed to fail.
#Go2Zero 3/
Canada’s MoH, PHAC, & CPHO are wrong on “slow burn”:
It’s a pandemic of a novel virus that may be fatal or lead to long-term health damage. You can’t control the course of this pandemic with certainty; to aim for “slow burn” risks a large magnitude, irreversible loss. #Go2Zero 5/
Canada’s MoH, PHAC, & CPHO are wrong on “slow burn”:
It’s a pandemic of a novel, dangerous virus.
To aim for “slow burn” is to risk a large magnitude, irreversible loss of lives or impaired health of many Canadians. That’s morally unacceptable. No model can fix that. #Go2Zero 6/
Canada’s MoH, PHAC, & CPHO are wrong on “slow burn”:
It’s a pandemic of a virus of which much is uncertain and a large magnitude, irreversible loss is possible. This calls for decision makers to take strong action to prevent harm, applying the precautionary principle. #Go2Zero 6/
Canada’s MoH, PHAC, & CPHO are wrong on “slow burn”:
It’s a pandemic of a dangerous virus that’s highly contagious. To aim for “slow burn,” like the UK’s “covid drift” or between herd immunity & zero covid, ignores pandemic dynamics.
You need to aim for zero covid. #Go2Zero 7/
Canada’s MoH, PHAC, & CPHO are wrong:
To aim at “slow burn” ignores pandemic dynamics.
To say “expect outbreaks” is fatalistic.
To blame Canadians for your failed covid response.
Don’t aim at “slow burn”.
Aim to eliminate the virus.
Aim to end covid. @endCOVID19
#Go2Zero /end

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More from @ecovals

Jun 29, 2020
In a pandemic, what can ordinary Canadians do to prepare and help themselves if their governments won’t help them, as Harvard epidemiologist @BillHanage advises?
#Masks4Canada
@jkwan_md @jeremyphoward @AmyTanMD @jvipondmd @robshirkey @SharkawyMD @drmwarner @picardonhealth 1/
Can Canadians join together in mass action - send a strong message to Public Health and governments on the critical need for mandatory masks in indoor public spaces?
#Masks4Canada @jkwan_md @jeremyphoward @AmyTanMD @jvipondmd @robshirkey @SharkawyMD @drmwarner @picardonhealth 2/
What kind of grassroots mass action could ordinary Canadians take to effectively send a message on mandatory masks in indoor public spaces?
#Masks4Canada
@jkwan_md @jeremyphoward @AmyTanMD @jvipondmd @robshirkey @SharkawyMD @drmwarner @picardonhealth 3/
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Jun 1, 2020
Aerovirologist & Public Health Professor @UF John Lednicky et al. (2020) “Collection of #covid19 from Air of a Clinic” is essential reading for leaders, policymakers, researchers & healthcare workers, others. 1/
#cdnpoli @janephilpott @jkwan_md @DFisman
aaqr.org/articles/aaqr-…
Aerovirologist Lednicky & others (2020) “Collection of #covid19 from Air of a Clinic” find the virus in air 2+ m away from source. “Collection of a positive sample from a distance more than 2 m away from nearest patient traffic implies the virus was in an aerosol.” 2/ #cdnpoli
Aerovirologist Lednicky et al. (2020) found the virus in an aerosol over 2 m away was viable; clinic then changed its PPE protocol, requiring N95 masks for all its healthcare workers even if not working directly with #covid19 patients. #cdnpoli @janephilpott @jkwan_md
Read 4 tweets
May 30, 2020
1/ Which is Canada’s Public Health’s #covid19 response? Wish it was zero transmission to save lives. #cdnpoli
Global PH expert @devisridhar: in UK one camp wants govt to try “get over the worst of the pandemic by allowing the virus to spread through the population..
2/ Which’s Canada? Global PH expert @devisridhar on what the first UK camp wants in #covid19 strategy: allow virus to spread: “..albeit at a slower pace to ease the strain on the NHS, and by creating more hospital and mortuary capacity to cope with a spike in deaths.” #cdnpoli
3/ Which’s Canada’s #covid19 response? Global PH expert @devisridhar on what the UK second camp wants in its #covid19 strategy: “reduce the rate of infection – or R – to as close to zero as possible. It recognises the uniquely dangerous nature of this virus..” #cdnpoli @jkwan_md
Read 4 tweets
May 23, 2020
1/ Canada, science on masks for all clear some time ago.
Yet Canada’s Liberal Trudeau govt & supporters cite “changing science” for delay in mask advice. Perhaps science was ignored? #cdnpoli #covid19
Oxford @trishgreenhalgh & SFU @jeremyphoward summary:
fast.ai/2020/04/13/mas…
2/ On April 13 @trishgreenhalgh & @jeremyphoward wrote on science of #Masks4All. Since virus R0 was estimated at 2.4 by Imperial College researchers, as high as 5.7 by others: “This means that without containment measures, #COVID19 will spread far and fast.” #cdnpoli
3/ In early April, Oxford @trishgreenhalgh & SFU @jeremyphoward wrote on science of #Masks4All: “Importantly, #COVID19 patients are most infectious in the early days of the disease.. during which they generally have few or no symptoms.”
#cdnpoli
Read 6 tweets
Mar 23, 2020
Canada #cdnpoli failed to implement early & wide testing for #covid19 because of Liberal MoH Patty Hajdu’s flawed risk assessment - ultimately political - the federal govt can “manage” the surge of the pandemic, ignoring best science advice, WHO.
#covid19Canada
@janephilpott
MoH Patty Hajdu’s flawed political risk assessment ignored best science advice on critical role of testing in #covid19 response, so the federal Liberal govt has not allocated enough funds for testing rapidly & broadly, including mild illness, no travel. #cdnpoli #covid19canada
The federal Liberal government needs a radical change in a political-based risk assessment of the importance of rapid & broad testing in its #covid19 response to provide enough funding now, in days, not weeks. #covid19canada #cdnpoli
Read 4 tweets
Mar 18, 2020
Canada’s testing policy is weak. What chances of fighting #covid19canada?

Experts find severity of #covid19 outbreak in Italy vs South Korea due to testing differences. “Aggressive and sustained testing is a powerful tool for fighting the virus.”

reut.rs/2IIe79X
Some say Canada #covid19 test levels stellar. Miss relevant benchmark is containment.
When Italy realized community transmission from a large number of unknown cases had occurred, raced to test to find them.
italy expanded #covid19 testing quickly to find sources of community transmission; 25,000 tests as of 03/05, now 77,000 tests, 15,000 cases, 1,000 deaths. South Korea had an aggressive testing policy from the start, now 222,000 tests, 8,000 cases, 67 deaths.
#covid19Canada
Read 4 tweets

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