Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Sep 24, 2020 14 tweets 11 min read Read on X
"So far the signs are positive..." @US4AfghanPeace tells @USIP #AfghanPeace about #Doha talks btw #Afghanistan & #Taliban

"The first days of the negotiations also showed more progress than many expected"
All stakeholder countries are supporting the #Afghan-#Taliban talks, "with the exception of #Iran" per @US4AfghanPeace
"I am hopeful" per @US4AfghanPeace "Nothing is guaranteed of course...the responsibility is w/the leaders of both sides"

#Afghanistan-#Taliban talks
"Based on what I see & what I've heard, they're serious about the negotiations" @US4AfghanPeace says of #Taliban "They've sent a very empowered senior team to negotiate...They have said to me they is no alternative to negotiations"
"They seek to be accepted as a partner, as a normal player" adds @US4AfghanPeace of #Taliban
#Taliban performance has been "mixed since we made this agreement but we see their ability and their willingness to deliver" per @US4AfghanPeace
"We will watch and monitor...but I do believe they are taking the negotiations seriously, for their own self-interest" per @US4AfghanPeace

re #Taliban
"Violence is too high" per @US4AfghanPeace, saying #Afghanistan #Taliban are using violence to strengthen their positions at the negotiating table

#AfghanPeace
"We believe the violence needs to be brought down by both sides...I am talking to both" per @US4AfghanPeace "The violence levels are unacceptably high"
"I assess their role as positive" @US4AfghanPeace says of #Pakistan's involvement in #Afghanistan-#Taliban talks

"Our relationship with Pakistan, as a result, has improved" he adds of US-Pakistan relations
"Being in #Afghanistan militarily is not an end in itself for the #UnitedStates" per @US4AfghanPeace

"It is the judgment of the military leadership that at that number [under 5,000], we still can do the mission..."

#AfghanPeace
"#ISIS is very active in terms of violence, in urban areas especially" @US4AfghanPeace warns, talking about other players in #Afghanistan wishing the peace talks harm "ISIS wants to derail the potential agreement"
#alQaida in #Afghanistan - "They are a very small number even if you include #alQaida in the Indian Subcontinent" per @US4AfghanPeace "They are mostly focused on survival bcs we are hunting for them"
#Taliban taking on #alQaida? "They have taken steps. But this is unfinished business from my point of view. They need to take more" per @US4AfghanPeace, who declines to share any details about what exactly Taliban have done to crack down on AQ

#AfghanPeace

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More from @jseldin

Feb 13
ISIS-Somalia has dug in - operating out of Buur Dhexaad, described by the UN sanctions monitoring team as "a strategic base secured by natural caves and defensive structures safe from aerial and ground offensives"
ISIS-Somalia leader Abdul Qadir Mumin has also sought to limit unnecessary exposure while focusing on boosting the affiliate's finances thru increased extortion campaigns, per the UN report
Some of that money has been poured into advanced weaponry and drones

ISIS-Somalia has "employed unmanned aerial vehicles for reconnaissance and limited explosive deployment" per the UN. with an aim at "building suicide unmanned aerial vehicles"
Read 5 tweets
Feb 13
NEW: "Growing confidence" that the global leader of ISIS is Abdul Qadir Mumin, also the head of ISIS-Somalia, per new UN sanctions monitoring team report

"But doubts continued to be expressed by other Member States"
If Somalia's Mumin is ISIS leader Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, "it may signify a deliberate pivot towards a more decentralized operational structure, further from the core conflict zone" per the UN report
Of the 9 regional offices set up by ISIS, only 2 remain active in Africa:

- the al-Karrar office in Somalia, which serves as a key financial hub
- the al-Furqan office in Nigeria

per UN report
Read 14 tweets
Jan 30
HAPPENING NOW: Senate Intelligence Committee confirmation hearing for Tulsi Gabbard to serve as US Director of National Intelligence
"It’s fair to say Ms. Gabbard’s nomination has generated a bit more interest and attention than do most nominees before this committee" per Senate Committee Chairman, Tom Cotton
"But I want to stress that Ms. Gabbard has been and will be treated with the exact same respect, consideration, and professionalism that we have extended to every other nominee" per Cotton
Read 65 tweets
Jan 10
NEW: US intelligence agencies pushing back vs claims health ailments linked to Havana Syndrome were caused by a foreign adversary

"The intelligence does not link a foreign actor to these events. Indeed, it points away from their involvement" per a US intelligence official
"5 elements of the intelligence community continue to assess that it's very unlikely of foreign actors responsible" per the US intelligence official

BUT 2 intelligence agencies have reevaluated - "shift from unlikely w/low confidence to roughly even chance with low confidence"
The US intelligence official, briefing reporters on the condition of anonymity, describe the shift in view about the possible involvement of foreign adversaries as "subtle" - "They have a low confidence in their judgments"
Read 9 tweets
Nov 20, 2024
NEW: Islamic State-Somalia getting boost from an "influx of foreign fighters"

A just-issued UN sanctions monitoring team report warns the foreign fighters "have expanded and enhanced the group’s capabilities against al-Shabaab"
Influx of foreign fighters to IS-Somalia " has coincided with the re-emergence of the Al-Karrar office as a
key administrative and financial hub for [ISIS] globally" per the UN report
IS-Somalia being led by "a cadre of former al-Shabaab
militants based in the Bari region of Puntland" per UN report

Abdirahman Fahiye Isse Mohamud is the emir of IS-Somalia, per report, "responsible for [ISIS] operations in Somalia"
Read 11 tweets
Nov 15, 2024
NEW: Senate Democrats ask @DeptofDefense @TheJusticeDept to look at Elon Musk's reported contact w/Russian officials - "determine whether this behavior should force a review of Mr. Musk’s
continued involvement in SpaceX’s varying contracts" w/the US government Image
Image
"Communications between Russian government officials and any individual with a security
clearance have the potential to put our security at risk" per @SenatorShaheen @SenJackReed

"We urge you to take appropriate action immediately"
Musk's alleged contacts with Russian officials was first reported by @WSJ, which cited current and former U.S., European and Russian officials
Read 5 tweets

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