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Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
@charles_gaba
Sep 24, 2020 • 28 tweets • 23 min read • Read on X
📣⚠️ CRUNCH TIME: Going forward, I'll mostly just promote my two "focused" fundraising pages (links at end of thread), but once a week I'll also tweet out all ~20 pages (~600 state & federal candidates).

If you've been waiting to donate, NOW is the time. 1/
#DemCast
MICHIGAN: In 2018 we flipped 5 House seats and need just 4 more to #FlipMIHouseBlue. Donate to these races today! I strongly recommend Julia Pulver, Kelly Breen, Nicole Breadon, Barb Anness, Jody LaMacchia & Abigail Wheeler: 2/ #DemCast #DemCastMI
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
IOWA: Dems are also just 4 seats away from taking control of the state House! Boosting down-ticket enrollment also helps our federal candidates and #BidenHarris with their races! Help #FlipIABlue by donating to these races today. 3/ #DemCast #DemCastIA
secure.actblue.com/donate/flipiab…
MINNESOTA: Democrats already hold the state House, but if we flip just 2 more seats in the Senate we’ll have a trifecta! Help #FlipMNSenateBlue by donating to these races today! 4/ #DemCast #DemCastMN
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
ARIZONA: Democrats have a good chance of flipping BOTH the state House (2 seats) *and* Senate (3 seats). 5/ Donate to #FlipAZBlue today! #DemCast #DemCastAZ
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
KANSAS: By request, I've added 2 dozen of the most competitive KS state house races! It also helps Barbara Bollier flip the Senate seat. If you want Medicaid expansion, donate to these races today! 6/ #DemCast #DemCastKS
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
FLORIDA: The legislature has been a GOP lock for a long time, but the state Senate is within reach. Plus, boosting turnout for state races helps #BidenHarris win the state as well! Donate to these races today to help #FlipFLBlue: 7/ #DemCast #DemCastFL
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
GEORGIA: The odds are long on the GA legislature, but w/the right candidates & a lot of support we have a shot! Boosting state race turnout also helps #BidenHarris, Jon Ossoff, Rev. Warnock etc. Donate to help #FlipGABlue today! 8/ #DemCast #DemCastGA
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
NORTH CAROLINA: Democrats have a real shot at flipping BOTH the House *and* Senate this year! They need to flip 6 House and 5 Senate seats to #FlipNCBlue and PASS MEDICAID EXPANSION with Roy Cooper! Donate to these races today: 9/ #DemCast #DemCastNC
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
OHIO isn't gonna be easy, but with great candidates, some luck and your support, we can bring it back from the brink. Help #FlipOHBlue by donating to these races today! 10/ #DemCast #DemCastOH
secure.actblue.com/donate/flipohb…
PENNSYLVANIA: Flipping the PA *Senate* will require nabbing 5 seats. The PA *House* is a larger job (9 seats) but both are doable. Donate to these races to help #FlipPABlue today! 11/ #DemCast #DemCastPA
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
SOUTH CAROLINA: The SC state Senate is potentially IN PLAY! Dems need to flip 5 seats to take control...and with Jaime Harrison giving Lindsey Graham a run for his money, we could pull it off! Donate to #FlipSCSenateBlue today! 12/ #DemCast #DemCastSC
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
WEST VIRGINIA: Even more amazing, the WV state Senate could be flipped if everything goes right. Help make that happen and #FlipWVSenateBlue by donating to these races today: 13/ #DemCast #DemCastWV
secure.actblue.com/donate/flipwvb…
TEXAS: THE BIG ONE! Democrats are poised to take control of the state House, which has major implications for redistricting and would get a foot in the door for #ACA Medicaid Expansion. Donate to these races today! 14/ #DemCast #DemCastTX
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
WISCONSIN: Wisconsin's horrific gerrymandering makes it a tough nut to crack, but Dems have a narrow chance at flipping the state Senate and can make gains in the state House. Donate to #FlipWIBlue today! #DemCast #DemCastWI 15/
secure.actblue.com/donate/makewib…
This year has reminded us how vitally important GOVERNORS (#COVID19 response), ATTORNEYS GENERAL (defending the #ACA) and SECRETARIES OF STATE (protecting voting rights & election integrity) are! Donate to elect #MoreDemExecs today! 16/ #DemCast
secure.actblue.com/donate/gov_ag_…
Onto the CONGRESSIONAL races: Democrats flipped the U.S. House in 2018. Now we have to make sure to KEEP control of it! These are the 40 most vulnerable House Dems; donate today to #KeepTheHouseBlue: 17/ #DemCast
secure.actblue.com/donate/keepthe…
We flipped 40 U.S. House seats in 2018, but left *dozens* more on the table, coming up just a few hundred votes short in some cases! Donate to these swing district races to #ExpandTheBlueHouse today! 18/ #DemCast
secure.actblue.com/donate/expandt…
There are *other* House races which are a much tougher grind, but with the right candidates, a lot of luck and your support (financial or otherwise), we could pull off a few surprises! Donate to help Dems #CompeteEverywhere today! 19/ #DemCast
secure.actblue.com/donate/compete…
As long as I'm at it, we should really #LeaveNoDemBehind! These candidates are running in the deepest red districts, but they shouldn't be abandoned. Donate today! 20/ #DemCast
secure.actblue.com/donate/compete…
FINALLY, #FLIPTHESENATE! Some of these candidates are already swimming in money; CONSIDER *OTHER* GREAT CANDIDATES like Jaime Harrison, Al Gross, Barbara Bollier & M.J. Hegar as well...& don't forget incumbents like Doug Jones and Gary Peters! 21/ #DemCast
secure.actblue.com/donate/retakes…
Oh, while I'm at it, here's a shout-out to some LOCAL races! Donate to great OAKLAND COUNTY, MICHIGAN candidates like Karen McDonald for Oakland County Prosecutor and Kelly Dillaha for County Commissioner District 12! #DemCastMI 22/
secure.actblue.com/donate/blueoak…
Speaking of which, if you happen to live in Oakland County and want a high-quality #BidenHarris lawn sign, donate $25 to the OCDP. if you live in my neck of the woods I might even deliver it personally! 23/ #DemCastMI
secure.actblue.com/donate/ocdpbid…
📣 OVERWHELMED by so many candidates? Want to focus your dollars even more effectively? I've pared the ~600 above down to 50 Senate/Congressional & 60 State Legislative races which I think would have the most impact.

That doesn't mean the rest aren't important, of course! 24/
FEDERAL RACES: Donate to these 50 candidates today to #FlipTheSenate, #KeepTheHouseBlue, #ExpandTheBlueHouse *and* protect the POTUS results in case there's an Electoral College failure: 25/
secure.actblue.com/donate/final_f…
STATE RACES: State legislatures control redistricting, Medicaid expansion, reproductive rights and hundreds of other critical policies. Donate to these races today to help #FlipStateLegBlue in up to 10 states at once! 26/
secure.actblue.com/donate/final_s…
P.S. Aside from normal ActBlue/payment processor fees, 100% of donations go to the campaigns. I receive nothing besides peace of mind. If you'd like to support my work in ACA/healthcare policy data analysis/advocacy, you can do so here. Thank you! /END
acasignups.net/donate
FWIW, I just broke $2.9 million raised to help elect Dems up & down the ballot nationwide: Image

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More from @charles_gaba

Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 10
Here's an updated version of my "Dem Stop the Steal!" conspiracy theory thread which hopefully is less scattershot.

There's 3 main claims:

1. "How could there be 20M fewer voters than in 2020 w/"record-breaking turnout?"

2. "How could 15M fewer voter for Harris vs. Biden?"
3. "How could so many swing state voters vote for the Dem for Senate but not for Harris for POTUS?"

There's a few others, but these are the biggest ones, so let's tackle them first:
1. There weren't 20M fewer voters.

I've been compiling the data as it's being updated by CNN's tracking center via a Google spreadsheet. As of this writing, total POTUS turnout is ~147.6M, or ~10.8M lower than 2020's 158.4M.

cnn.com/election/2024/…

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 46 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 8
Yesterday I posted a thread digging into the actual data behind the "20M missing votes!" and "15M fewer than Biden!" conspiracy theories being tossed around the past few days.

I've updated my spreadsheet using the latest data from CNN:
cnn.com/election/2024/…Image
Short Version:

Via CNN, as of this writing, total 2024 POTUS votes are only down 13.9 million vs. 2020...with a likely 11.5 - 12.0 million ballots still to be counted across 30 states.

Total 2024 turnout will likely be ~156M or so...just a couple million fewer than 2020.
Again, using CNN's data & estimates, once every legitimate ballot has been counted, Trump will likely have around ~78 million votes to Harris' 75-76 million.

That'd mean he added ~4 million vs 2020 while she lost ~5-6 million.

Both of these would still suck, of course.
Read 14 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 3
As the guy who obsessed over precisely this data for nearly 3 years, let me address this:

My best estimate is that around 150,000 more Trump 2020 voters than Biden 2020 voters died between Nov. 2020 & Nov. 2022.

That's a lot of people. HOWEVER... 1/

acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
...the vast majority of this discrepancy happened in districts/counties which were heavily red to begin with, which is why the MAGA COVID Death Cult factor only ended up making a decisive difference in exactly one statewide race: Arizona Attorney General:
acasignups.net/22/12/29/updat…
At the House district level it didn't make a decisive difference in any races at all. To understand why, let's look at two extreme examples...

acasignups.net/22/12/13/updat…
Read 10 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 31
People have started asking why I'm still pushing fundraising for Dems just 5 days before Election Day. All the ad time has been purchased & the lit pieces printed & mailed out already, right?

There's several reasons: 1/
1. For state legislative races in particular, a last-minute cash infusion of even $50 can mean an extra few pizzas for tired & hungry canvassers or an extra burner phone for phone banking.

Blue24.org/state-leg
2. After the polls close, there's going to no doubt be some races which require recounts...which may or may not have to be paid for by the campaign requesting it, depending on the state and the margin. That's gonna cost money.

Blue24.org/endgame
Read 4 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 31
🧵THE DEAD POOL: Since @MikeJohnson and @JDVance are promising to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about that. 1/
acasignups.net/24/10/04/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 40 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 6
(sigh) OK, here we go again: Trump's Butler, PA rally crowd size.

Here's the best aerial view shot I've seen of the crowd at its peak. (the arrow shows the stage). 1/ Image
A standard dry U.S. trailer van is around 53' long. 2/
schneiderjobs.com/blog/semi-truc…
As it happens, the aerial shot shows several presumably standard trailer vans lined up neatly in a row just outside the perimeter in the lower right.

By copying & pasting one of them, it looks like the venue runs around 7 trailer vans x 4 trailer vans. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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