Thread by @ThyConsigliori

3 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Setting Up For The Final Run - Major Chart Work

Our entire nation sits in hope, fear, and some strange new how, solidarity with our President and our First Lady. As they face Covid head on, personally, together, we all pause.

2) I didn't verify it, but if the headline I saw is true and Biden is pulling all negative ads for the moment, then my hat's off to him and his team. It may be expedient, but if so, it's one of those rare moments when expedience and doing the right thing are the same.

3) If anyone tells you today that they can call the coming election outcome, tell them they're a liar or an idiot or both. The what ifs are exploding right now. The term for that is imponderable. We're at a chaos moment, an impossible to predict explosion of factors.

4) What we can predict is that a new order will find its way to us sooner or later. Can't know when or even how, but we absolutely do know that it will. I want to share a story I once heard about such moments and then turn to some major chart work together.

5) I don't remember where I blundered into this story, fact actually, but I am pretty confident it's right. During WWII, as I heard it, the Hershey Chocolate company was one of the most beloved in the world. Oh, I remember where I first heard this! My father told me!

6) He fought in New Guinea, the Philippines and then shipped with McArthur into Japan for the occupation. If I recall it right, he was telling me about liberating POW camps in the Philippines when he mentioned Hershey's Chocolate bars being dropped down in care packs.

7) I'm pretty sure I've seen this depicted in film too. I think I remember my father telling me he saw this, and I think he termed it "the taste of freedom." I also believe this occured in the Third Reich's interment and death camps upon liberation as well. Can you imagine?

8) I share those fuzzy memories as an example of the beginnings of order setting in following the long night of chaos. Another example might be the election of George Washington's 1789 election as 1st President of these United States following the Confederation's run from 1776.

9) I have this faith. We, We The People of these United States will make it through to our next stage of true progress, to the next stage of our endeavor towards an ever-improving more perfect Union. That is my dream, and I hope yours too.

10) You might be surprised that an artful reading of charts can help us manage - or muddle less badly - our way through the chaotic challenges we face as a people. Now, fair warning must be given. I'm going to truly LOVE creating this thread. Meaning...

11) Some of you will remember our metaphor of chefs and diners, yes? Most people just want to eat the great food, and have ZERO interest in how it's made. When I go into major chart analysis work, in my zen mode of detail romance, well, this is the chef's area, yes?

12) Interested diners are absolutely welcome, yet, please know, no allowance or preference will be granted to impatience over how long it takes to both make and describe the making of our delicious repast. You're in the kitchen now, kids. Got it? Here goes...

13) In ancient times past on 29 September, I posted these 4 charts, with my best effort both at meticulously drawn lines and equally meticulous attempt at clear explanations. I was very proud. Take a look again, please.

14) There are some steps you might want to try in unpacking the meaning of those 29 September charts. First, click on the first chart so it opens up and spend some time looking. Don't worry where your eyes go or how much you understand. Simply take it in, visually.

15) If it was me, my next step would be to follow the support and resistance lines, and get the lay of the land. But, sometimes it might be better to read what's written onto the chart, and get that in your logical thinking place, before you seek out the lines. Your choice.

16) Again me, my third step would be to read the analysis written onto the chart and try to follow the chef's thinking and purpose. I'd be very critical at this point. If you're going to sell me on your logic, you had better do more than just believe your own thoughts, Chef.

17) So, in reading other chef's work, whoa, it isn't pretty. I can be so judgmental and agressive and hard to please. Still, that's precisely what I recommend that you be when taking in my own analysis. Test it. Break it. Disprove it. Have fun! Knock down the wood block tower.

18) If we both have time, you'll find I completely delight in fielding any and all comers. You may be surprised that if you win the argument, I will bow and recognize your superior point, and call you friend. I actually need all the strength you can hit me with in your attack.

19) My next step requires your understanding of what the following 3 charts actually are. They are the exact same data, but showing ONLY 1 of the 2 campaigns for clarity of analysis, and do NOT show the Insignificant Difference Area that the first chart provides.

20) The most exciting chart to me is the 3rd, where we explore both a possible surge line and a possible new resistance line. I adore the gentle end of one formation and the often not so gentle emergence of the new. Heaven. Seriously, look at this with me!

21) Also, I have two friends who guided me to employ Excel's mighty and truly user friendly markup functions for the charts. I was afraid, but they held my shaking hand. Great thanks out to @teddyspeedboat and @JohnBasham!

I confess, I use two hands on my mouse. Have to.

Alright, that's a lot. Plus, I have to take a break and then line up the next set of charts. So...

End of today's Part 1 comes at #21.

Part 2 will commence after a brief intermission...

22) Back again, with 3 new charts to share. What I've done is retained all the same lines and comments that you saw above, from September 29, but I've added all the data that brings us up to today. Not a single line has been changed. How fun is this? Here is the 1st.

23) Well, I did find a few data entry errors I entered previously, but, thank goodness, they were very minor! Also, I did have to move the September 21 comment boxes as the new data required. But no comment or line has been changed. Can you figure out why that's so important?

24) The first is quite gratifying to the analyst. Lines are guesses, estimates, every bit as emotional as they are logical. There are logical rules, very objective, that a chartist employs, but in the end the decision is art, not science. So, when your lines hold, it's a big YAY!

25) Allow me to demonstrate from 2016 with the final chart of the election. This is the actual chart I drew that day. Back then, I was using only black and white images, with blue pen lines. Let me generate this again right now, in full color for you!

26) Here's the brand new version, attempting to as perfectly replicate the original, but in color and using Excel's wonderful mark up tools. I have been looking forward to drawing this chart again for a LONG time!

27) Here's the important thing about testing your lines and analysis again and again over the campaign period. You have to discover how much, to what degree you can believe BOTH in the line itself AND then you have to find your belief in the predictive power of the analysis.

28) I'll never forget how, the morning of November 8th, I checked the number times I came close to drawing these precise resistance lines. Remember my rules for an honest line demand at least 3 tests (when the rise hits and then drops). So, November 4 was when I had my 3 tests.

29) November 7 was actually a 4th test, but it also raised the slope of the line for Trump confirming that there was - assuming the data was right, which in retrospect we know with 100% certainty that it was! - no chance of defeat for Trump, no chance of victory for Clinton.

30) I'd have to ask my son Nico - he likely won't remember - whether he asked for my call the evening of the 7th, or the morning of the 8th. In any case I gave him a no qualified Trump call. He placed a bet on it and won around $1,900. I think he wagered around $250.

31) But even though I'd made my call formally and publicly on the October 15, it was not until the final days that the simple elegance of just these two resistance lines telling the entire tale of the election overwhelmed and awed me. If you would understand 2016, look here.

32) I won't reminisce anymore for now, but I truly hope you're seeing and feeling the power of the analysis. We're working so hard to truly understand what's actually happening, as it occurs. Then, we giving our all to project the meaning and force driving that story.

33) For our last lesson, let's finish up with today's 4th chart with current data added to lines drawn on September 29.

34) As you can see, the support line looks like it may just hold. After our coming break, I will redraw the lines and test my comments against the new data, no longer looking at the old lines for reference. New data always indicates redrawing the lines honestly.

35) It may surprise you to realize that when it comes to my lines I am EXTREMELY conservative. So, I can already tell you when I draw new lines on this chart, I will NOT claim actual confirmation. I have 4-ish tests so far, but the current almost 4th test hasn't clarified yet.

36) For instance, any serious drop, maybe replicating the moment Trump bounced off his resistance line a few days back will begin to look like a Bear Market formation not only breaking support, but far worse, breaking his previously stable channel.

37) I'm not going to get into the definitions of Bear vs Bull markets right now. I am going to repeat that I have severe questions about Dornsife's methods and motives this year. And, I also repeat that this is their one and only data presentation that even tempts me.

38) I additionally repeat that, when even drawing a chart at all, you have to put all your questioning of the data's integrity aside and use the hypothetical assumption that the data is solid. This is very hard on one's brain and heart, as I bet you can imagine.

39) Qualifiers repeated, my instinct is that this actually is the least worst data and comes as close to reflecting reality as they're going to get this year. Also, my instinct tells me that Trump's channel will hold, although that is of course what I want. That's Danger Land.

40) So the other theory, the counter-case to what I desire, is to foresee a Bear Market kicking in, and when it does, that's Trump's death spiral ending in 1 term only. Excruciating to contemplate, and therefore absolutely critical to do so and be ready.

41) On that sad note, I have to ask. Can you begin to see the shapes I'm talking about, BEFORE I actually draw them? Are you coming to the place where, if you took the same data, on the same charts, you might be able to draw your own lines? I hope you already know that's my goal.

42) So, as I head off for my second break, and today's final chart tranche, if you're still interested, please attempt to visualize what's coming. Attempt to see yourself drawing a line you have analyzed and are ready to fight for and defend against all attack. It's good!

Part 2 ends at #42.

After both a relaxing and then a working interlude, your ever faithful Consigliori will return and bring this long cooking and baking process to its delicious conclusion.

I can hardly wait! Back soon...

An interlude moment...

Proper care and feeding of analyst is critical to excellence at work. And, of all protocols, proper espresso by far the most important. 2nd of the morning ready, now back to drawing lines.

43) Well then! This was absolutely one of the most challenging balancing acts of painstaking analysis, interpretation, and presentation. If you're still with me after all we've covered, I can't tell you how grateful I am. If not, you can come back soon, to finish up with us.

44) I've decided to present these 3 final charts for today in this sequence of confidence per chart:

* Easiest To Analyze And Draw (Highest Confidence)
* More Difficult (Dropping Confidence)
* Most Difficult (Lowest Confidence)

Trump's was the easiest.

45) Can you see how simply clear - and reminiscent of 2016 - his resistance line is. Sure, he hit it hard and fell - so far - straight to the bottom of the channel. If, however, 2020 replicates 2016, he's likely to dip just a little below support and commence a strong rebound.

46) Out of all our current lines, this is absolutely one of the strongest. 3 fantastic tests. A clean, lovely line, at a completely sustainable slope. Gotta love lines like these!

If Trump doesn't plummet. breaking support hard, and if support holds, this channel strengthens.

47) And, if the rise is strong, and we test or break resistance, then this becomes very likely the victory run. But, resistance does NOT need to be broken. The more tested the better, and then this becomes the victory channel. Crossed fingers for our guy!

48) Biden's comes next. I'm pretty happy with how clean it looks, but NOT so happy about its strength. I tried and tried to find the new resistance line and call out a new formation. Just couldn't do it. I wanted to give him the benefit of this possible surge, but I'm not there.

49) Do you see how the possible new resistance line has ONLY 2 tests, not 3? I could - and did - play with that resistance line on about 3 or maybe 4 different slopes, and none of them stand up and says, "Yo, analyst, stop screwing around, I'm the one." I don't like that.

50) Channel support also has ONLY 2 tests, and I feel like I'm pushing it to even call it support. I probably, but couldn't bear to, should have made it a dotted too. There is one possible support that does have 3 kinda sorta tests, but it's too wimpy for me to even display.

51) And then there's that damned possible surge line. Obviously, its slope is completely unsustainable. Worse, the weight of the chart slopes down, giving the likelihood of this being some big deal is very low. It could be. I might be. Get the idea? Just not feeling it.

52) Now don't get all jumpy on me as try to tell me it's due to my bias. It's not. I know what that is, and this ain't that. Nope. This is the irritating, frustrating inability to call anything. And its makes me suspicious of hinkyness, again. why's this data so non-committal?

53) Enough on that, the worst is yet to come...

Gotta give me a moment to collect myself. I think my chart is kinda pretty. But it may just be the most meaningless damned chart I've ever drawn. Oh well...

55) Where to begin? Might as well tackle the worst thing first. It's, once again, Dornsife's stunningly stupid use of an Insignificant Difference Area (aka Too Close To Call), both of which are names I had to come up with for them so as to avoid embarrassing them more.

56) You can look me up if you want. On 20 August in my #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis that day, I started whomping out my points of angry disappointment for all these horrible changes they've made. Of these, this one is absolutely the dooziest. Wow.

57) I rapidly came up with my theory that neither Trump nor Biden would ever break the limits of this range. So far, albeit very possibly coincidental and for other reasons altogether, my theory's prediction remains 100% accurate. Not one bit of data yet fails to support it.

58) And remember, this is the very BEST of their data - least worst - whereby all the other charts support my theory as if it were a new law of physics. So we see both campaigns draw right up on to it and voila, next day, we begin to build our lovely margin yet again.

59) In order to stop obsessing, I have to share again, the "why" behind my theory. This method MOST obfuscates the data. Their other steps appear to my cynical eye to each and everyone work perfectly to forecast an absolute, unquestioned and unquestionable Biden victory.

60) I've described previously the LA Times boardroom scenario I imagine. Remember LAT pays for Dornsife, every penny and farthing, 100%. So, they're telling their loyal scientists, look, we let you get away with calling 2016 for Trump thinking it didn't matter.

61) So let's be clear, fellas, that is NOT happening again. Do your magic things that you do, and we're calling for Biden from day one, and all the way through. Got that? Good. What, no we do NOT need to know how you're going to do it. Just get the job done.

62) And this ridiculous chart is the strongest evidence supporting my theory, yet. Look at that resistance line on top. It is the one that anchors this chart. It is the definitive vector, with greatest force. The one we question, or can question least.

63) But what about that shorter support line on bottom? Why so much less time covered than the resistance line above. For a shorter line, though, its got wonderful testing and therefore excellent strength. But still, why? Theory says that Trump's support demanded a change.

64) Theory says that, no matter how much this data is corrupted and fudged and dirty, even still they couldn't stop Trump's support from breaking the rule and forced their hand. Some magical change was made, and support for the Insignificant Difference Line was reestablished.

65) I don't know if I can explain this well. Trump's support brings Biden's resistance down. And that breaks the theory's basic rule about the Insignificant Difference Area's (IDA) resistance. Then, if Trump bounces, jumps way up, he could break out of the IDA completely. No!

66) Wow. Believe it or not I'm absolutely exhausted now. I have no more analysis left in me. All gone. All done. That's it. I have two more points to make, but neither is analytical. I promise.

67) Friends, Patriotic Democrats and Trump Supporters alike, corruption reaches deep in the so-very rigged system. The Fake Polling of 2016 was a travesty, but Dornsife was an island of safety. This year, I can't give them a single plug. And this flows directly from evil forces.

68) We're being fooled again. We thereby lose the light of truth. The divides that separate us grow. The evil darkness of division and disunity stiffles conversation, destroys love, tears down relationships, and weakens America Herself. And that is the purpose. Be very clear.

69) Then finally, I am boldly asking for your help. Please head over to BetweenTheLines.Vote, and VOTE!

Please bring your friends and family, and most especially those with whom you disagree the strongest yet may still somehow bridge the divide!

70) I'll have a new tranche of data available tomorrow, but I can't promise my next release and analysis until Monday or Tuesday. We'll see, I might be able to get there tomorrow, but can't promise. Our data is NOT strong enough for full confidence yet, but it's gaining momentum.

71) When you go, also do this one last thing. Remember to take full ownership over our 5 questions, and start practicing conversation polling with them. Just ask the question. Quietly yet attentively listen. Then, follow up each question with the additional question: Why?

72) At BTL it is our dream to make a pollster out of every American. We dream that our method will empower the creation of a new strongly forged bond of unity inclusive of all disagreement. We do provide the path, and sincerely hope you'll take it with us!

73) Thread actually, really, and in all truth...

Ends at #72.

Believe it or not.