Thread by @RachelBitecofer

1. That's bc nothing matters but partisanship + national conditions. Pure Is have are about 60/40 pro-Dem split. R Leaners, like actual Rs are STILL voting Trump at close to a 90% prob.

This hasn't moved even: Ukraine, pandemic, economic collapse, or Trump COVID.

It won't move

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1312827600243429380

2. Our forecast will go back up tomorrow with the House ratings included. The 40 seats that flipped (actually, 39 now bc Ds gave up 1 for no reason in a special, CA 25, simply by failing to invest equally in ballot return operation) are pretty much universally safe,@BenMcAdams'

3. seat included. At the end of the day- his SLC-centric, suburban surge district is not "breaking bad" while that shit-show is sitting in the Oval Office. After that, assuming Ds don't change their electioneering strategies to run like the GOP's all bets are off. McAdams'

4. is sensitive to negative partisanship w about 39% college education rates. It is about 16% Latino. The focus @BenMcAdams campaign places on turning out low-propensity Democrats & voters who would likely vote for Dems (Latinos, women-esp college edu women, women under 30, all

5. voters under 30-really, and Black voters) but aren't coded as D already on the VAN versus wasted effort talking to Rs and R leaners and trying to get them to do something THEY WILL NEVER DO. Like Fox News distorts extremism on the Left and makes antifa seem like a "thing" (its

6. only a "thing" in Portland & Seattle & barely even there. It sure as hell doesn't control the Dem Party. It HATES the Dem Party almost as much as it hates the GOP, wrongly arguing there's no diff between the GOP & the Dem Party (it's only the size of the Gulf of Mexico). If it

7. was ever true, it sure as hell isn't true now and even a blind man can see these diffs. There are precisely 8 "radical" Ds in Congress (defined by math) and their radicalism is moderate compared to the radicalism of the GOP- which is now electing Q'Anon people to run their

8. state parties, fill congressional seats, and I'm sure that next cycle, some of these nuts will be coming for the few regular conservative senators left in the form of primaries. Which, incidentally, is why you'd think they'd be somewhat motivated to fight back at this point

9. (and at long last). In fact, here are the GOP senators up that cycle that are likely to be Q'Anon'd as once they were Tea Party'd (@SenShelby, @lisamurkowski, @Boozman4AR, @marcorubio (for shiz), @MikeCrapo, @ToddYoungIN, @ChuckGrassley, @JerryMoran, @RandPaul, @SenJohnKennedy

10. @RoyBlunt, @SenJohnHoeven, @robportman, @jameslankford, @SenToomey, @TimScottSC, @SenJohnThune, @MikeLeeforUtah, & @RonJohnsonWI. Oh yes- many of these men (plus Lisa M.) don't face competition in the G.E.- that actually means they're even MORE vulnerable to a GOP electorate

11. and a primary challenge. These guys face a decision, start pandering to people who are certifiably NUTS, who are nation's top intel & law enforcement agencies classify as a domestic terror threat & cite, w frustration, that GOP voters are now sending them to Congress. And I'm

12. here to tell you, & YOU, GOP senators, that these nuts will be coming after your senate seats in 2022 and will be well-positioned to do so. And all the pandering you're doing now- it won't do shit to stop them. And these right-wing fear merchants you call journalists on Fox &

13. talk radio guys- the ones whose asses you have to kiss aren't going to give two shits about all the ass-kissing you're doing now. Nope. Its not gonna get you jack shit. They're likely to throw all, if not most, of you under the bus in favor of these wackos. Hell, some of them

14. may very well be your challengers! I mention this bc its actually RIGHT NOW that is your best, last, & only chance to get yourselves out of this shitstorm but the window of opportunity is closing and closing fast. There is safety in numbers and if y'all banded together right

15. right now and were ready to pounce on election night, you could rid yourselves and your once-proud party of a fairly good chunk of the MAGA problem. But you'd need to start moving now, and you'd need to move decisively. And if you can't bring McDaniel w you (assuming she's

16. still on the game board, you need to coup her ass. BC you can dethrone Trump/MAGA w/o the RNC & you can't prevent the 2022 QAnon purge of you w/o keeping the RNC from executing its "the war begins on Nov. 4th" lunacy. Once that plan kicks in, all the exit rows are officially

17. closed off and you are going down with the ship. But I digress- the re-release of the forecast, this time w the House race ratings update, will also premier my new elections analysis website, which I am SO EXCITED to be launching. For the rest of the election cycle, it will

18. be focused pretty squarely on hosting the forecast but I'm also planning on running live shows of @ElectionWsphr at noon, perhaps even daily on the site starting maybe even mid-week- this week! It'll be the website I've wanted to run/have for a long time, but couldn't bc I

19. constrained by working at Centers (academic & think tank). I'm as free as a bird now, and def jazzed to be creating a website for election analysis that will be a Festivus for the rest of us. It's going to start off pretty me-centric, given that we're 30 days away from

20. the end of the cycle, but it won't be staying that way. Indeed, I intend to create the most inclusive site in the political analysis/political commentary space- a space where those creating content are connected with those consuming it. A space where the status quo is that

21. there IS no status quo. It's going to be challenging, & scary, but also invigorating and meaningful. And my deepest hope is that its going to be a space that makes those that come across it hungry to know more. More about politics, and elections, and how everything ties back

22. to their own lives- that there is no issue that isn't a "kitchen table/bread & butter" issue. That in fact,if they hear someone say something ISN'T important to regular voters, it almost certainly IS. I want to create a space where a chemistry PhD w a passion for politics and

23. more than average ability to engage in research on it DOES get a chance to see his research taken seriously, even if its by someone who went to state schools and lacks the "right" connections. I want to make cool research interesting and relatable to regular people bc if this

24. past 4 years has taught us anything, its taught us the fragility of the American Experiment and the reality of its "thread-like" stability which can't be fixed via elites. Its a comforting thought, of course, to think that all of our woes are concentrated within the political

25. class & fixing them is all we need to do. But fixing them requires democratic accountability, a mechanism that hyperpartisanship & polarization has broken. MASS polarization. The citizen problem can't be fixed so long as political engagement remains an exercise of elites.

26. That is the power of @joerogan's show. Rogan is making the discussion of political topics accessible by meeting his audience, the average American, where they are. And avg. Americans are NOT twitter. They aren't stuffy, or super wonky. They ARE reachable, but they don't like

27. bullshit. In the main you can reach millennials and zoomers on a lot of stuff if you're not full of shit. So above all, the site won't be full of shit. I'm super excited to go on this adventure with you, my friends- those who've been following me on my little thread since the

28. beginning, back when there was just 600 of you! and all you new friends too. I'm not perfect- lord knows I fuck up. But when I do, I say "hey, I fucked that up." And I am upfront that Donald Trump presents an existential threat to the survival of democracy- but if he (or his

29. party look good to win I'm gonna tell you and I'm going to see it coming. I have massive incentives to be right and more than most people- can not afford mistakes. So I look forward to tomorrow and the debut of the new site! Thanks for your patience on the repost, I had to

30. build the new site and of course, we wanted to carefully vet the model and ensure it was in good shape. I think you'll be very pleased with the revised version and I know I am madly impressed with the model and how thoughtful it is- the 3 neg partisanship variables and 3

demographic realignment variables are so well thought out and present, I think, the best of what I was trying to capture theoretically. More on that tomorrow though!!!