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Rachel
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5 Oct, 6 tweets, 2 min read
1. Yes- there has been a crime in plain sight since day 1 of early vote returns in NC. My sense is that bc the GOP knows democratic accountability is broken. The Rep & R-leaning Ind portion of the electorate will support even blatant disenfranchisement of black & other
2. voters bc the right-wing media, Trump, and GOP pols have so effectively gaslit that side of the electorate into thinking that their side is the party protecting voter integrity that they would equate these measures w being more democratic and ethical- not less (again, we have
3. really slipped so much into similar territory of other nation's who, via propaganda, found their populations accept transitions into authoritarianism. Oh, and if you are a skeptical R who thinks, no YOU are the baddies! Do me a favor, go spend some time reading international
4. news. It's you. What is happening in the U.S. is a global crisis that our Nato allies are looking at in horror. And Black voters' ballots are disappearing in NC in a massive, anti-democratic scam that YOU should be standing against. MUST stand against if you want to consider
5. yourself small d democrats. But so far moderate Rs and right-leaning Inds have been complicit in Trump's push towards authoritarianism and some of these people are here, on twitter. You can really see how broken dem accountability is by looking through this youtube/economist
6. poll, post-debate- see how Reps and Indies (realize within that Indie category, what you are seeing is propped up by right-leaning Indies and their closet partisan behavior) hold up Trump, even keeping him competitive on questions that defy reality. docs.cdn.yougov.com/qmlxn6ghki/202…

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More from @RachelBitecofer

Rachel
5 Oct
1. Update: we know for sure that 1st time mail voters are much more likely to have their ballots flagged for issues.

We also have a distinct pattern in mail data this cycle. Rs "invented" use of absentee ballots to ⬆️R turnout. Its how they dominated FL elections. Ds got wise
2. to this system over the past couple of cycles & started to up their focus on absentee voting. Where they could, they changed voting laws to allow more mail voting (CA, CO, more recently VA) & once the GOP figured out they'd no longer hold the advantage on this technique THEN
3. they started to try to frame it as risky to fraud. Still, this attack on mail/absentee voting is/was controversial in the party bc the operatives understand how much a role its played to their dominance (bc again, they've been winning by focusing on partisan turnout). When
Read 17 tweets
Rachel
5 Oct
1. That's bc nothing matters but partisanship + national conditions. Pure Is have are about 60/40 pro-Dem split. R Leaners, like actual Rs are STILL voting Trump at close to a 90% prob.

This hasn't moved even: Ukraine, pandemic, economic collapse, or Trump COVID.

It won't move
2. Our forecast will go back up tomorrow with the House ratings included. The 40 seats that flipped (actually, 39 now bc Ds gave up 1 for no reason in a special, CA 25, simply by failing to invest equally in ballot return operation) are pretty much universally safe,@BenMcAdams'
3. seat included. At the end of the day- his SLC-centric, suburban surge district is not "breaking bad" while that shit-show is sitting in the Oval Office. After that, assuming Ds don't change their electioneering strategies to run like the GOP's all bets are off. McAdams'
Read 31 tweets
Rachel
4 Oct
Trump flaunted CDC guidelines for COVID- led thousands, if not millions of his supporters to cavlier behaviors spreading infection- some died. Then when their recklessness at the WH causes an inevitable cluster- got state of the art treatment the regular public can't access.
2. The coddling of Trump, the Trump family, Republican politicians at both the fed and state level- all of that- must stop after this.

It can't continue w/o enablers like the presidential debate commission.

No masks/social distancing- no service

And people who are high risks
3. who are attending large rallies and in congregating and not masking, etc- these people are high risk. They should not be allowed to come into spaces with other people until they have quarantined after their last risky behavior. Stop making it easy for them to endanger innocent
Read 10 tweets
Rachel
4 Oct
1. That's bc that "debate" performance from Trump was literally the worst thing ever seen in American politics- & that's after 5 yrs of seeing Donald Trump do his thing.

He was advised against the "strategy" & spent the whole next day convinced he'd killed it 🙄

In my 2016 book
2. I didn't do what so many others did in their books and suddenly apply magic filters to the two 2016 campaigns. In my chapter, A Tale of Two Campaigns, in the '16 cycle as in now, I recounted how shitty Trump's 2016 campaign was, from beginning to end and on every single metric
3. Especially contrasted w HRC's campaign. It wasn't until Trump's freak accident win that all the Clinton hit books had to be quickly revised to recount what a shitty campaign she ran- they were all set to be print about how much better the Clinton campaign was than the Trump
Read 7 tweets
Rachel
3 Oct
1. The absolute folly of the GOP's "COVID is a hoax we can simply pretend away & thumb our nose at" is being exposed as this massive cluster spreads:

So Far: Sens Johnson, Tillis, Lee, Kellyanne Conway, Hope Hicks, Donald Trump, Mark Meadows, Ronna McDaniel, Bill Stepien

With
2. these folks- they made decisions that led to them contracting the virus. They purposely exposed themselves to the virus, & each other while taunting and criticizing appropriate safety measures. So its hard to feel bad for them. BUT they also insisted on putting innocent people
3. in danger & at some point, positive tests are going to start to pop up for those folks. People who DO follow safety recommendations. People who just wanted these people to wear a damn mask, limit their social contacts, behave as if there is a deadly pandemic out there instead
Read 10 tweets
Rachel
3 Oct
1. Yes, @kkondik is spot on in terms of the assessment here. In my forecast- which comes back out Sunday, the NC Senate seat is seat 50- although there are reasons to believe it was looking soft before this happened. Primary bc the @CalforNC was focused on wooing Indies & mod Rs
2. to the exclusion of any other efforts and messaging as I knew it would be when I was fervently hoping a stronger nominee would emerge. Sadly, NC's bench sat out, failing to realize how good the atmosphere would be in 2020- looking at 2020 & Burr's open seat which si DUMB,
3. my research being blacklisted off election twitter, it was hard for me to convince people back in 2019 that come fall of 2020 it would be a dominant environment to topple Tillis. So they end up w Tillis, and for the 2nd time the Ds find themselves getting screwed by the sexual
Read 7 tweets

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