Thread by @39Magilla

@enchiridion47 @yaneerbaryam (1) Quick & Dirty Peru SITREP:

The test positivity data for Peru shows an extremely low Tests-to-Cases ratio of only about 4-to-1, where targets are 30-to-1 or higher to achieve significant benefits of testing and isolation. Most of the community spread is not being detected.

@enchiridion47 @yaneerbaryam (2) For recent data in Florida, the current Infections-per-Case ratio is estimated at 4.5X to 5.5X, and the fatality rate for people over 70 plateaus at about 10%.

In Peru, they are seeing 25-40% fatalities, suggesting I-to-C ratios of 12:1 to 20:1.

@enchiridion47 @yaneerbaryam (3) While Peru does seem to be conforming to mask mandates in Lima, there may be other transmission vectors in play. Peru is notorious for discharging untreated wastewater, including human fecal waste, directly in the ocean. This may be a rare vector impacting their spread.

@enchiridion47 @yaneerbaryam (4) Confirmed deaths by COVID-19 in Peru.

This map shows that the coastline of Peru is the region with the highest death rates, further suggesting that untreated sewage discharge into the ocean may be a key issue.

@enchiridion47 @yaneerbaryam (5) Lima accounts for roughly half of the cases in Peru.

@enchiridion47 @yaneerbaryam (6) Within Lima and Callao, certain districts have much have Confirmed Case counts. Let's see if we can find out anything about the location of their sewage discharge fall outs.

Confirmed cases in districts of Lima and Callao (below), from @Wikipedia.

@enchiridion47 @yaneerbaryam @Wikipedia (7) First we'll look at the major watersheds around Lima. The Rio Rimac and its major northern tributary, the Rio Santa Eulalia seem to be the backbone structure for the outbreak areas.

@enchiridion47 @yaneerbaryam @Wikipedia (8) The Rio Santa Eulalia has a hydroelectric dam on it, and the entire watershed is notorious for carrying untreated wastewater. I suspect this is playing a role, just as I suspect Combined Sewer Overflow outfalls did in NYC and Chicago.

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@enchiridion47 @yaneerbaryam @Wikipedia (9) In Chicago, Combined Sewer Overflow outfalls on the Chicago Shipping and Sanitary Channel, along with areas that were flooded and exposed to sewage, corresponding to the worst outbreak sites in the city.

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@enchiridion47 @yaneerbaryam @Wikipedia (10) In summary, I doubt the uncontrolled spread in the greater Lima metropolitan area was due to the failure of masks, but rather to its second-world sewage system that contaminates local waterways and the ocean shore with untreated wastewater.