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5 Oct, 5 tweets, 1 min read
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 41 percent, in a new Times/Siena survey.
Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally, 50 to 39 percent, in the US Senate race
nytimes.com/2020/10/05/us/…
This is not the first time we've had some better-than-average numbers for the Democrats in Arizona, so I looked a bit under the hood at something potentially material: the number of new voters.
nytimes.com/live/2020/pres…
In our poll, voters without a record of voting in 2016 make up 32% of the electorate, and they break overwhelmingly for Biden--who leads by 2 pts among likely 2016 voters.
32% may seem really high, but it's basically in line with 2016, when 30% of Arizona voters did not have a record of voting in 2012, per L2 data.
Unlike most polls we actually weight on turnout history. So we're going to have a lot more of these new voters than the competition, and that may be the difference here

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
3 Oct
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Florida, according to new Times/Siena polls taken after the first debate.
Biden leads in Pennsylvania, 49 to 42 percent among likely voters. He leads in Florida, 47 to 42.
nytimes.com/2020/10/03/ups…
In an analysis of interviews conducted yesterday, including in Arizona (where a poll is ongoing), there was modest evidence of a shift in Joe Biden's direction after Trump's COVID diagnosis. That said, one day of interviews is not nearly enough to reach any firm conclusions
The shift, though, would be material if confirmed and it was statistically significant, controlling for the demographic and political variables used in weighting. That said, it's still just one day of interviews. We'll have to wait and see here.
Read 11 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
2 Oct
Tomorrow AM: Times/Siena polls in Florida and Pennsylvania
We're still in the field overnight, so finishing touches in the morning and no need to set your alarm, as it seems some of you do.
Started Weds., so post-debate. Who knows what today will mean, though I'll see whether there's any serious sign of movement in the AM (doubt it)
Read 4 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
30 Sep
What a mess. There was no winner, certainly not the United States. And that makes Biden the winner. He's the frontrunner. It's Trump who needed the win, and I think most anyone would agree, as Chris Wallace said, that the president was largely responsible for the debate.
I don't think Biden was terribly strong, especially after the first half hour. He certainly didn't dispel concerns about age or something. But as I think back on the debate, I can't really think of any clip that's going to reflect too badly on Biden.
On the other hand, I can think of several clips that Trump's going to want back. The post-debate discussion is going to be about him, not Biden. And that's simply not what he needs.
Read 6 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
29 Sep
I rewatched and had the same impression. Yet what's interesting is that Clinton was judged the victor at the time.
I found myself thinking that evaluations of Trump are just a reflection of our assumptions about whether Trump's shtick works.
Trump was just Trump in the debates. If you thought that was a joke in '16, he was a joke. If now you take it seriously, now it looks effective
Or put differently, if you went through all of 2016 assuming the Trump act was an electoral catastrophe, you would have undoubtedly come away thinking he had blown it yet again. If after the 2016 result you revisit that assumption, you'd undoubtedly reinterpret the debate as well
Read 6 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
28 Sep
Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania, 49 to 40 percent among likely voters, in a new Times/Siena poll nytimes.com/2020/09/28/us/…
The poll reflects some significant GOP gains in voter registration, and the likely electorate here is just D+4 by registration. But Biden has an overwhelming advantage in the major metropolitan areas, and Trump isn't matching his targets in rural areas, either.
Obviously, it's a hotter result for Biden than I would have guessed heading into this, and it could just be that. I expect we'll be returning for another reading here in fairly short order. In the interim, it'll be interesting to see what ABC/Post has tonight.
Read 6 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
28 Sep
Biden by 5 among likely voters, per Monmouth, 50 to 45 percent. One of Trump's better national polls, though not meaningfully off of the 7 pt average. monmouth.edu/polling-instit…
I don't really agree with some of the replies about Monmouth usually tilting to the right, btw. Here are their national numbers so far this cycle: Image
And Monmouth's national polls and state polls simply aren't alike. They're not methodologically comparable. For the purposes of house effects and so on, they may as well be two completely different firms
Read 5 tweets

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