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Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
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7 Oct, 4 tweets, 3 min read
1/ In much of Switzerland, we had a significant drop in temperature about 2 weeks ago. Likely people have come indoors, closed windows, & turned on heaters - all things that increase #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 transmission.

Winter isn't coming - it's here. And it's making things harder.
2/ In #Switzerland we have been teetering over the edge for weeks: a slow but sustained rise in cases. Our actions were slowing transmission, but not stopping it. The thermostat drop may have just given us a gentle push into more effective #SARSCoV2 spread.
3/ Rising #SARSCoV2 cases are bad on all counts:
- More chance of spilling into older age groups (worse outcomes) 👵🏼
- More chance of rare bad outcomes in younger ages 🤒
- And cases beget cases - the more there are, the harder it is to contain them 📈
4/ We could keep #COVID19 cases low without extreme restrictions (other countries have done it), but only if we bring them down. The longer we wait, the harder that will be.

The sooner we act, the sooner we are all safer! #SARSCoV2 waits for no one.

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Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
7 Oct
Thanks for helping to spread info about phylogenetics @Laurie_Garrett! But it's critical the info is accurate.

Couple of important points:
These great graphics are come from @nextstrain! You can see a tree with full menus here: nextstrain.org/ncov/global
We update every weekday!
Also, those early genomes aren't 1% different. That would be a difference of 300 bases, and they differ by 0-2 bases.

The divergence of the strain you pick out (see it in yesterday's run nextstrain.org/ncov/global/20…) is in number of changes, NOT percent! Much less worrying :) Image
As @pathogenomenick says, even the longest branches of the tree are incredibly similar - they differ by ~20 bases out of 30,000 - or ~0.07%

Also, the sequence highlighted has 4 amino acid changes, not 6. This isn't unusual, so no need for alarm!
Read 4 tweets
Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
30 Sep
1/ #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 transmission isn't equal: some cases transmit much more than others. We know that close, crowded, poor ventilated places (esp w loud talking/singing) link to superspreader events.

Minimising these situations will have an outsized effect - without 'lockdown'
2/ We can also reduce *risk* in those situations: make them less crowded (density rules), make them quieter (no singing, turn down music so talking is easier), increase ventilation (open doors/windows, turn up HVAC), reduce aerosols (wear masks if possible).
3/ @AdamJKucharski explains that this uneven transmission also means a person, on average, was infected by someone who infected others too. If we trace *backwards* & find the 'source' - then trace their contacts - we'll identify more cases.
More effective use of tracing efforts!
Read 11 tweets
Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
25 Sep
Is #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 evolving to bypass masks & hand-washing??

Good news - No! These measures physically remove 🧼👏🏼 or trap 😷 the virus so it never reaches you. These basically can't be evolved around. So keep up the mask-waring & hand-washing - it *is* protecting you!
Ah, you'd like more detail? Sure! The 'mutation' referenced is 'D614G' - it arose in Jan (long time ago!) & we've known about it for months. It's actually the variant that most ppl in Europe & many in the US already had!

So why are scientists still looking at it?
There is evidence the D614G mutation *may* slightly increase transmissibility. Studies in cell culture & looking at the virus structure think it might be /better at bonding to cells/.

That means it has to get to a cell before that mutation can have an effect!
Read 4 tweets
Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
23 Sep
The 'Texas Paper' is getting sensationalist headlines. Remember:
- D614G is same mutation we've known about since spring & been in media all summer
- It happened in ~Jan & most of Europe & much of US had it
- Great to confirm previous work, but not 'breaking'

#SARSCoV2 #COVID19
Worth noting that the authors of this study sat on 5,000 sequences *all summer* meaning they couldn't be used by other scientists to explore any findings in these sequences. Or to better understand Texas's epidemic during its biggest spike.
The author laments the low sequencing rates of #SARSCoV2:

“I think we need to be doing this pretty aggressively in multiple locations on a real-time basis,” Musser said. “I think it’s shameful that we’re not doing that.”

/It's shameful to sit on sequences that could be public./
Read 11 tweets
Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
23 Sep
1/ Has the UK ended up with the worst possible #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 combination?
- /Everyone/ is upset & confused
- Personal life greatly restricted
- Trust in strategy at a low
- Still possibly not applying restrictions consistently enough to make a decisive difference
2/ The local-lockdown strategy seems to have contained outbreaks over the summer - I was encouraged by this.

Convinced that was the end of it, however, the govt seems to have turned attention totally to businesses instead of the possibility that a 2nd wave could come in autumn.
3/ I do not believe a strict lockdown, as in spring, is necessary to stop #SARSCoV2. But the idea that people can totally isolate themselves in personal life, yet continue to patronise bars & restaurants & go work in offices like normal - & this stops transmission - is farcical.
Read 12 tweets
Dr Emma Hodcroft Profile picture
22 Sep
1/ This week much of Europe is about to experience a drop in temperature. In many places this will persist, & likely heralds the arrival of autumn.🍂

As people come indoors, shut windows, & reach for heaters, transmission of #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 becomes easier. We should prepare.
2/ In Europe, we've largely enjoyed a mild spring and a warm & length summer - making it easier to meet & socialize outside & keep spaces ventilated. This has likely had an impact on #SARSCoV2 transmission. These good behaviours will get harder as temperatures dip 🌡️🥶
3/ The recent increase in cases in Europe has turned attention back to limiting #SARSCoV2 transmission after our 'summer lull' - my hope is that this comes in time to help counter some of the effect of colder weather.

Read 4 tweets

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