Thread by @TracyNovick

Let's plan on starting the livetweeting thread here (I'll be jumping off this around 11:30, as I have a presentation to do) #mapoli #MAEdu

https://twitter.com/RepMichlewitz/status/1313812613806067713

Rep. Michlewitz regarding MA's net contribution to federal taxes on President's tweets: he "should stop referencing us as a blue state and start calling us a green state" #mabudget

Rodriguez precarious position: still no help from federal government, high unemployment, ravaged by health
revenues up a meagre 1%

"glaring federal dysfunction and ongoing health emergency"
need to "close an anticipated budget shortfall without federal assistance for at least the foreseeable future."

DOR: "confronted with an array of unknowns" for tax collection in FY21 #mabudget

$7.27B collection for September after adjustment (legislation counted some as FY20)
$69M more than FY20

projections of DROP of what was agreed upon in January ranging from a bit over two and half billion to five point six billion...which is quite a range! #mabudget

(remember that total Ch. 70 state aid is a bit over $5B)

ooooh. Snyder speaks of the "disconnect between stock market and real economy" #mabudget

(he's now running through the subsets of where tax revenue comes from, which I'm not going to try to keep notes on here)

"there is considerable uncertainty in these forecasts"
"unprecedented challenges in revenue projections for the Commonwealth" #mabudget

Michlewitz: why are we having projections for a drop when revenue is up?

(Good Q!)

A: several components of tax revenue
"the question is, is it going to be sustainable"
"a lot of uncertainties on the withholding side" as job market, unemployment
"withholding happens to be one of the major categories"

Rodriguez: range of FY21 forecasted revenue: "that's over a 2 1/2 billion delta"
"we need to select a finite number" for the budget; why such a material difference?

And if you had to pick a number, what would it be?

Synder: a lot will depend on stimulus, as it comes
How the national and Commonwealth's economy responds to any amount of stimulus
"I appreciate the consternation, if you will, on such a wide range" #mabudget

vendors put more weight on higher end of revenue than on lower end
more than 50% probability on higher end (from vendors)

(but when did they do those projections? Probably not since last night's tweet storm from the President, right?) #mabudget

Treasurer Goldberg (in talking about pensions): "the stock market is not the economy"