Here's some of the things we discussed and learned from @cmyeaton 1. What prompted her to become an epidemiologist?
2. Dr. Yeaton and colleagues wrote the essential report in April providing guidance for reopening. @JHSPH_CHS centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/pubs_…
If only the states had adhered to the guidelines, we could have achieved containment of the virus
3. 2 sentences that summarize the report
4. Why did we fail? Political pressure, mainly
5. Worst case scenario is the seasonal flu added on. But the good news is how little effect that has had in the Southern Hemisphere
6. How many Americans have been infected now? Some modelers suggest ~15%
She thinks about 10%
7. What about herd immunity?
Below and "Its a bridge too far to say we can rely on T-cell immunity to really change our epidemic dynamics."
9. She, like many of us, is very keen on the prospects for rapid testing
10. She's a big thinker and had worked out plans for a Disease Forecasting Center before the pandemic with @dylanbgeorge, something we desperately need for the future
11. What was it like to give testimony on Congress twice on the pandemic?
12. Vaccine implementation will be tricky, tough
13. When do we get back to pre-COVID life?
"I'm thinking toward the end of 2021"
Many factors will influence that projection, such as public trust and willingness, proportion who get the vaccine
14. My favorite @cmyeaton quote is:
"We must not become numb. Those numbers represent people who were loved"
She's a great inspiration, one we surely need these days.
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Recall I had sent an open letter to him August 31 after the convalescent plasma "breakthrough" press conference, w/o any supportive evidence, and the prior EUA on hydroxychloroquine medscape.com/viewarticle/93…
He didn't take either option I suggested. He called me. 2/
We've since spoken several times and now I understand his intentions, what he's been through, the immense pressures that have been placed upon him. For me, the trust in him and the FDA has been restored. 3/
Dr. Conley does it again. He clears Trump for public engagements in 2 days, without evidence that he is not infectious, without viral load data, without providing when/timeline he became infected.
Yesterday Dr. Conley ordered & reported a positive IgG antibody test in a patient who received a massive dose of IgG antibodies.
Today, without even committing to simple PCR tests to verify Trump is not shedding virus, he's cleared to meet with large crowds of unmasked people.
BTW CDC Guideline of 10 days (this is 9 days) is a *guideline*. This is a unique individual (in many ways) who received monoclonal antibodies, not expected to achieve mucosal immunity. And the early dexamethasone would suppress T cell response.
On today's message from Trump about his mAb treatment: "The gave me Regeneron" "at my suggestion" "I felt well immediately"
He now claims: "I call it a cure," "I've authorized the EUA" "Everyone will get them free"
All false. All predictable.
Did monoclonal antibodies save the President's life?
We'll never know, but it's possible and the implications are profound.
Let me explain 1/
Trump's risk profile by demographics was high (age, male, obesity) but it markedly increased when he had blood oxygen desaturation, had an abnormal lung CT scan of pneumonia, and was hospitalized
Mortality risk > 32% isaric4c.net/risk/ 2/
Sometime on Friday (<-presumably) he received a monoclonal antibody cocktail (2 different antibodies to override the potential of a virus escape variant)
Diagram from @VirusesImmunity 3/
The lies are coming out now 1. There was a rapid decline in oxygen saturation Friday 2. He received supplemental oxygen 3. He had a high spike in fever
4 .Lung CT abnormal 5. Transferred expediently d/t change in condition time.com/5895970/trump-…
Now dexamethasone has been added to the kitchen sink of drug interventions. For his "brief" need for oxygen? (compared with no oxygen). Patients in the pivotal trial showed no benefit, and potential harm, if oxygen was not received.
Examples of the extreme deception
—How low did the oxygen saturation go? In the low 90's?
—It did not go into the low 80's
—What did the lung scan show?
—The expected findings