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Seth Frantzman

@sfrantzman

9 Oct

Thread: do you notice a tendency among reports and commentators to sometimes use terms like “Kurdish groups” but don’t use ethnic terms when writing about some other groups in Syria or even Iraq, for instance Kataib Hezbollah or Faylaq Sham etc

Another aspect of this is that the same people who will use the Ankara media narrative of “PKK/YPG” as if it is the same, will differentiate SNA groups, Syrian rebel groups and even those TFSA or others sent to Libya etc; they will debate nuances of “are they jihadist”

But when it comes to “PKK” or “YPG”, suddenly these nuances disappear and the Ankara narrative sets in of “terrorists”...but the groups that murdered Hevrin Khalaf don’t get the “terrorist” label. Why?

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Seth Frantzman

@sfrantzman

7 Oct

The days of relaxing in eastern Syria, where they were detained, and being treated like VIPs in interviews, with soft, sympathetic questions as if they are "one of the guys" at a coffeehouse, having a nice time...might be over; edition.cnn.com/2020/10/07/pol…

ISIS was a supremacist genocidal organization, with an ideology similar to Nazism that treated captives and minorities similarly. It received tens of thousands of volunteers, many from privileged backgrounds, who travelled to Syria and Iraq to harm the vulnerable and poor.

Many of those who went to join ISIS viewed it as a kind of genocide vacation, the way some people go on a cruise, some got a plane ticket and flew and joined ISIS, they didn't respect local customs but helped genocide minorities who had been in Middle East for thousands of years

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Seth Frantzman

@sfrantzman

7 Oct

Thread: People who see the Azerbaijan-Armenia war strictly through some bizarre "Russia and Iran vs. Turkey" lens, don't understand the war or the way Russia, Turkey and Iran work together. This is not a proxy war so far. Trying to fit into an imagined narrative is a mistake.

You can test this by noting that Iran and Russia have both supported Azerbaijan's claims to international law and Nagorna-Karabkah, but they both oppose military escalation. Turkey entirely supports Baku, but buys S-400 from Russia and Iran and Turkey work on trade.

The minute that the war appears to weaken Iran or Russia, the war will likely stop because these two countries work well with Turkey on the Syria file and Russia and Turkey deal on Libya and other issues; so far Iran and Russia don't mind some losses for Artsakh fighters in NK.

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Seth Frantzman

@sfrantzman

4 Oct

Thread: #writing Sometimes people ask me "how do you write so much," but I don't see it as writing a lot, I cover a few subjects consistently and develop ideas and connect dots by doing so; I view my writing as kind of open-ended books and I'm just adding a chapter a week;

That isn't to say I don't put a lot of work into articles, some articles are based on months of research, but while I'm doing that I'm learning other details that often work for shorter pieces, maybe a sentence in a larger piece could be developed into a whole different article

I'm not trying to be "prolific"...I have a lot of energy, I like to focus on writing, and I have a lot of ideas and I'd prefer to get them on paper as it were than have them come and go. One downside though is that I'm less in the field because of the lockdowns, so there's that.

Read 8 tweets

Seth Frantzman

@sfrantzman

3 Oct

Thread: If Iran judges that the conflict in Armenia and Azerbaijan is creating any instability in Iran or stoking ethnic tensions, it will move quickly to secure a ceasefire via work with Ankara and Moscow based on the Astana model. Those talking about "Turkey vs. Iran" are wrong

Why are they wrong? Because the hidden deal between these countries, who may not always share interests, is no stoking tensions inside sovereign borders of the other. For instance Russia is wary of extremists, Turkey of PKK, Iran of ethnic tensions;

The idea that the conflict which Turkey encouraged between Azerbaijan and Armenia might be used in any way to weaken the Iran regime will stop immediately if Tehran feels this way through quick calls to Ankara and Moscow.

Read 15 tweets

Seth Frantzman

@sfrantzman

2 Oct

Thread: I see these odd debates, mostly among westerners, about whether something is "jihadist"...it reminds me of the old debates about what kind of "Marxist" people were...it views "jihadist" as some academic reality, when the reality on the ground is not so simple, or binary

It also reminds me of the debates in the US about what group is "far right" or "white supremacist"...in the end what we are talking about is groups in the Middle East on a spectrum of far-right extremism as well, some of whom are genocidal.

It misses a key aspect, which is that groups may profess some ideology, some worldview...but the people that join and leave the and move in their circles and commit crimes sometimes for these ideologies, are not so doctrinaire.

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