Thread by @BBCkatyaadler

While UK side keeps *banging on* about fish fish fish .. the Brussels end of post #Brexit trade negotiations now *harps on* (AND ON) about governance ie need for a robust dispute mechanism with teeth allowing for swift legal action (including suspending chunks of whole deal) /1

EU keener on this than ever in a deal with UK following the government threat to override parts of the Withdrawal Agreement with its internal market bill. EU leaders say they need to justify an eventual deal to their voters. Proof haven’t sold out French/Dutch/German interests /2

In a deal with UK and that if UK businesses suddenly get an unfair competitive advantage bc spending less on environmental regulations or receiving more in state aid, then EU wants to be able to take speedy action via dispute mechanism. /3

It’s seen as v positive in EU that UK chief negotiator David Frost yesterday spoke of this dispute mechanism also working in UKs favour. EU sees that as sign of UK ´coming round’ BUT /4

While this means the issue of level playing field is en route to possibly being worked out via robust governance mechanism ie UK sovereignty *protected* by not having to sign up to agreed rules on state aid etc while EU single market is protected via a tough dispute mechanism../5

Problem is: what should that governance look like? This conundrum means we could be so very very very near to a deal (because fish can definitely be resolved. See below) and yet still fail to get one by end of transition. Governance conundrum: /6

UK rejects ECJ involvement. EU accepts that. EU says can’t go through UK courts bc they follow domestic legislation. Both sides could found a stand alone court for this deal but that means agreeing norms bilaterally..Maybe have a bilateral arbitration panel? It’s not insoluble /7

But it’s far, far from straightforward. Is there enough time for agreement? One high level diplomat suggested to me maybe both sides need a few months of no deal to clear their heads and get them to finish the deal in 2021. No-one in the EU thinks a deal possible in October /8

Of big three remaining issues EU wants to leave fish till last. First governance, then level playing field, then fish BUT there’s dawning recognition that won’t work for UK. David Frost has been sounding a loud warning over fish /9

This could be to distract public from concessions UK is preparing to make over governance and level playing field in the knowledge that the EU will make concessions for the UK over fish but EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier has also recognised the UK will have difficulty /10

Compromising over governance and level playing field UNLESS it can clearly see the EU will make key concessions over fish. And here we’re stuck in #Brexit chicken and egg AGAIN. While UK won’t move fully on LPF and governance till fish compromise is clear, EU coastal countries/11

Won’t move from their fishing rights claims till see UK concessions over governance and LPF. But I disagree with recent reports saying EU coastal nations have toughened their stance against concessions over fish, full stop. EU won’t let this deal die over fish /12

But EU coastal nations will only move (and yes, reluctantly so) when they see the UK has moved too over other issues. It’s seen as important in EU that Boris Johnson now in contact with EU Commission Pres von der Leyen. “He’s left it lamentably late to get involved” is EU view/13

Of course everyone EU-side recognises challenges of Covid and economic consequences but.. I’ve heard predictions of a Johnson-Merkel meeting or at least ‘high profile phone chat’. Germany has rotating presidency of EU. Merkel also seen as able to bring EU centre around her /14

Including the central and Eastern Europeans. Macron described to me as divisive figure in EU and as being “up a tree over Brexit”. We can’t forget Macron is also in election mode ahead of next French presidential vote and wants to be seen as protecting French interests /16