Thread by @TUmarov

1/9 Kyrgyzstan is facing the biggest political crisis in a decade. One of the differences in the current situation from the last 2 revolutions is the reluctance of external powers to get involved. What to expect from 🇨🇳&🇷🇺? @AlexGabuev & I explain it here: carnegie.ru/commentary/829…

2/9 First, to understand what's going on the ground there's a great zoom-event by @CarnegieEndow's @pstronski co-organized by @tahirmuh & @OxusSociety w/ awesome speakers @VeneraSagyn, @Ericamarat, @bektour, and @ADoolotkeldieva.

3/9 In a nutshell, the current resident lost much of his authority, his enemy, ex-president Atambayev, is back in the game, as are many other players. The roots of today's battle for power goes back to the last year's scandal I wrote about @Diplomat_APAC:

carnegie.ru/2019/08/23/fai…

4/9 Last year when two presidents fought, 🇷🇺President Putin clearly stated his preferences when Atambayev made a quick trip to Moscow, talking about the importance of consolidating around the current president, Jeenbekov. This time everything is different & much more serious.

5/9 This time Moscow: 1. was caught unawares by the escalation 2. is preoccupied with the COVID-19 pandemic, Belarus, Karabakh, Navalny, etc. But it possesses the most effective tools to influence the situation & played an active role in the 2010 revolution.

6/9 China officially highlights that it doesn’t interfere in other country’s domestic affairs. In fact, 🇨🇳 wants to be portrayed as the main external power in Central Asia but doesn’t (yet) know how to convert its economic presence into political leverage.

7/ Just as telling is the response of Moscow & Beijing to Kyrgyz events. While Putin stays in contact with all parties of the conflict (ria.ru/20201007/kirgi…), Beijing "hopes that all parties in Kyrgyzstan will properly resolve the issues" (fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_6…)

8/9 Whatever happens in Kyrgyzstan for the next several days, the Kremlin will not hurry to take sides. For now, none of the main contenders for power in Kyrgyzstan are deemed unacceptable for Moscow.

9/9 The defeat of the current influential families would be a tactical setback for China's network among the Kyrgyz elite, but Beijing is likely to adapt and work with the winner. Kyrgyzstan needs both China & Russia much more than the other way round. carnegie.ru/commentary/829…