Just watched the @TuckerCarlson segment with Trump interview by @DrMarcSiegel. Takeaway: Trump looks good, his voice is strong, no visible shortness of breath, he's finishing sentences without stopping for air. Mental status and judgment seem unchanged from his usual. (1/9)
Siegel actually did a decent interview – asking questions testing recall, along with others that got at judgment and insight (latter included asking about lessons learned from this experience). I'm not a Trump fan but it's hard to make 25th Amendment case from what we saw. (2/9)
And, while Trump is still not completely out of the woods – there's still a small (<5%) chance of a significant setback – with a patient this stable 8 days into the illness, his most likely course is a relatively uneventful recovery. (3/9)
Did the interview make any news? A little. If Trump is to be believed, he was never short of breath; his main symptoms last Thursday were sore throat and weakness.

He says he wanted to leave the hospital after the second day; his team wanted him to stay for observation. (4/9)
Per Trump, he is off all medications "as of 8 hrs ago." That includes the dexamethasone. Since starting it seems like a clinical toss-up (at best) and Trump did well, stopping it before completing a 10-day course seems prudent – at some point, the risks exceed the benefits. (5/9)
Any tests in hospital? “They tested the lungs, they have incredible equipment….it tested good; initially they said I had some congestion in there…w/ each day it got better."

If he means they found lung congestion on his x-ray, that's more info than we got from Dr Conley (6/9)
How bad is the virus? "It's highly contagious. That's one thing you learn." (Sad if that's how he learned this.) Re: mortality: “Generally you get better...If you look at mortality rate, I think it's up 95 or 85%.” (I'd guess he means survival rate; if so, an overstatement) (7/9)
His final message. "I have great respect for the doctors... I have such respect for the people that have suffered, and my sympathies for the families that have been horribly hurt.” One of the more empathic things I've heard him say. (8/9)
Overall, if he were my patient I would reassure him that he is doing very well, and is highly likely to continue to have a benign clinical course. Given that he had a 5-8% predicted mortality when he was diagnosed, up to ~20% after he was hospitalized, he's a very lucky man.(9/9)

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More from @Bob_Wachter

9 Oct
1/ Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 205

It’s hard to believe that we first learned of Trump’s Covid diagnosis exactly one week ago tinyurl.com/yxq2vbv3. Here are a bunch of hot takes on today’s issues, which continue to move at hyper-speed.
2/ On Trump’s clinical status. Yesterday, his doc reported that Trump's vital signs were stable, including normal oxygen saturation w/o supplemental O2. Today’s videos show no obvious shortness of breath (he completes sentences without stopping for air): tinyurl.com/y3p9l8lh
3) Based on his @FoxBusiness phone-in today tinyurl.com/y5h5brpe, his mental status & judgment seem to be at his baseline (that's the standard we use). Whatever you think about Trump's mind, there’s no new evidence of lack of capacity to do his job based on Covid or meds.
Read 25 tweets
4 Oct
Impressions of today's Walter Reed presser:

a) Conley's mea culpa: “I was trying to reflect the upbeat attitude of the team. Didn’t want to give any information that would steer the course of his illness.” Trump's fingerprints.

But even so, today was only slightly better. (1/8)
b/ Biggest news is that T had 2 episodes of hypoxia (down to 93-94% O2 saturation), & Conley evaded whether sat was ever <90. "Never in low 80s" is all he offered.

c/ Re: Chest CT: "There were some expected findings but nothing of concern." What the hell does that mean?...(2/8)
...To be clear, the "expected findings" on a chest CT is NORMAL. If it was normal, he should say that. Anything else should have been described.

(The only semi-benign interpretation would be if the prez has a known chronic finding – like a benign nodule – that was seen)...(3/8)
Read 8 tweets
3 Oct
I’ve not yet seen report on whether Trump has received dexamethasone (steroids); we know he already got remdesivir (antiviral) & “cocktail” of monoclonal antibodies.

But steroids, the only drugs proven to lower Covid mortality, raise a complex set of issues. An explainer. 1/9
The key is the dynamics of the immune system in Covid: early on, damage is being done by the virus itself, so rapid treatment w/ an antiviral & other efforts to bolster the immune response make perfect sense (although “making sense” & “proven to work” are 2 different things). 2/9
But steroids act differently – they suppress the immune system. Why could that work? Because later in Covid, some of the harm is by damage caused by our own immune systems going haywire – attacking our bodies in a frenzied effort to kill the intruder tinyurl.com/yyra4qnd 3/9
Read 10 tweets
3 Oct
1/ Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 199

OK, now this is now officially mind-blowing. Of course, today’s thread will be all about the President’s illness, what might come next, and what it means.
2/ Once Hope Hicks tested positive, the thinking was that she might have given it to Trump on flights Tues (to OH for debate) or Wed (rally in MN) tinyurl.com/y4e5sgmf But that theory was kiboshed yesterday: the >3 day incubation period meant the exposure was likely earlier.
3/ The perfect timing would have been last weekend. Perhaps a big event where people were mask-less, not distanced, with backslaps and hugging.

Like the Saturday nomination ceremony at the White House for #AmyConeyBarrett.
Read 25 tweets
29 Sep
1/ Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 195

As a politics junkie, I spend much of each day refreshing the election projections @538politics (tinyurl.com/y4vqs85a; it currently has Biden at a 78% chance of victory).
2/ While @NateSilver538’s model has many variables, I’m guessing it’s missing one of the most important: Covid status in swing states. That’s today’s topic.

I’ll focus on the 8 states that 538 deems the most likely to be tipping points: PA, FL, WI, MI, AZ, NC, OH, and NV.
3/ My thesis: in a close race, whether Covid is front of mind may determine whether persuadable voters base their votes on Trump’s handling of Covid, or on other things.

The fact that the US is likely now starting its 3rd surge (whether in your state or not) should be enough…
Read 25 tweets
25 Sep
1/ Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 191

Wonderful @UCSF medicine grand rounds today, focused on San Francisco’s remarkable Covid response. It’s here: tinyurl.com/y3uhy6tz.

As I said on Monday, if U.S. had had SF’s Covid mortality rate, we'd be at 36,101 deaths, not 200,000.
2/ San Francisco continue to do quite well, even as U.S. (particularly Midwest; a bit in South & West, Fig on L) begins to surge. @UCSFHospitals, only 15 Covid pts, 5 on vents (Fig R). Test positivity 3.3% in pts w/ symptoms, 0.53% in those without – both lowest # 's since June.
3/ San Francisco: still under 100 (99) deaths since the start; remarkable. 64 cases/day (Fig on L). Hospitalizations also at 64 – both numbers not as good as they were in March-June but about half of the July peak (Fig L).) Test positivity rate: 2.1%, the lowest % since June.
Read 25 tweets

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