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David Boxenhorn Profile picture
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11 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
This might be the answer to your question about covid rates, @ScottAdamsSays.

Cultural practices (we don't know exactly which ones) are really, really important!
I find the Swiss data the most convincing. German, French, and Italian rates are in the exact order that you would expect
The difference between German and Italian rates *within* Switzerland are a factor of 10, similar to the difference between Germany and the US, @ScottAdamsSays. That is much more of a mystery than comparing two separate countries!
This makes sense, since small differences between cultures are amplified *exponentially*

@nntaleb
@normonics
@yaneerbaryam
This can be generalized. *Any* difference between regions, whether it's culture, age structure, weather, etc. will be amplified exponentially. Even random things. So it is not at all surprising that their are many unexplained weirdnesses in the the data!

@razibkhan

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More from @davidboxenhorn

David Boxenhorn Profile picture
17 Sep
This is the podcast on Covid self-tests that you have to hear. It answers all your questions. Takeaway: It's the bureaucracy, stupid! Only 21 minutes, and Gladwell is an excellent interviewer. My notes are below

@realDonaldTrump
@ScottAdamsSays
@nntaleb
@normonics
@yaneerbaryam
Gladwell: Why are we not doing this?

Mina: It's been first and foremost a regulatory hurdle
The only paths we have to evaluate tests like this in the US are medical diagnostic pathways. They're pathways designed specifically to ensure that a physician, like a detective, is getting all of the information they need to diagnose a sick person in front of them
Read 14 tweets
David Boxenhorn Profile picture
6 Aug
*THIS* is the problem, and Trump can fix it!

The tests need FDA approval!

Because they are a "biological test that are likely to alter the decisions that a person makes"

@ScottAdamsSays can we get Trump to change this??
Trump can save the world by a one-line change in these regulations!

@ScottAdamsSays let's do this!

fda.gov/medical-device…
Right now you can get a CLIA waver (and rapid tests have *not* gotten wavers yet) but even if you *do* get a waver you can't sell to anyone, but only to "trained and designated" people!

This is what has to change!

@ScottAdamsSays
Read 5 tweets
David Boxenhorn Profile picture
26 Jul
We have a solution to COVID-19

Inexpensive, fast, easy, frequent, but less-sensitive tests beat expensive, slow, difficult, infrequent, but more-sensitive tests.

We have the capability NOW

@nntaleb
@normonics
@yaneerbaryam

microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-640/
$1 tests, printed on paper that you lick, that give immediate results.

This test is cheap and easy enough to test EVERYBODY, EVERY DAY.

We can test school children at the beginning of the day, employees as they come to work, restaurant patrons before ordering, etc. etc.
Because viral load in the body increases exponentially by the hour, there's a gap of only a few hours when you are infectious but test negative.

If you have covid, and the test doesn't catch you today, it will catch you tomorrow. Or when you go out to eat.

This will work
Read 5 tweets
David Boxenhorn Profile picture
11 May
Quarantine Regions, thread

1. To head off future pandemics, we should divide the world into quarantine regions, now. These can be likened to the compartments of a submarine. People understand that in case of a leak, you can close off one compartment and save the whole ship
2. Similarly, we can close down a quarantine region, and save the rest of the world. Or a quarantine region can close itself down, and save itself *from* the world
3. For small countries, the quarantine region can be the whole country. But larger countries should have sub-regions. In the United States, quarantine regions should be states, though small states can combine into a single region, and large states should be subdivided
Read 9 tweets
David Boxenhorn Profile picture
19 Jul 19
I read Pinker's letter of defense (linked) and was disgusted. Not because he did a favor for a friend, and not because contributed to Epstein's defense, but because he now regrets it

whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2019/07/12/tar…
An ethical person does not regret telling the truth in a court of law, even when a bad person benefits from it. This is so important that it's one of the Ten Commandments
And a good person does not regret doing a favor for a friend, when the favor does not violate any ethical boundaries, or have any bad results (the result, here, is being an honest witness in court)
Read 4 tweets
David Boxenhorn Profile picture
15 May 19
I think this is the problem that I'm having with @nntaleb's views on intelligence: IQ is well-defined, it's how well you do on an IQ test. But I haven't seen Nassim's definition of intelligence
In The Black Swan, @nntaleb carefully defines Mediocristan and Extremistan. So when he goes to war against Gauss, it's clear that he means that we shouldn't apply the metrics of Mediocristan to Extremistan
So, I know what IQ is, but I don't know what this other thing is, that @nntaleb is going to war against. In earlier tweets, I tried to make sense of Nassim by understanding that IQ is not a good measure of ability to avoid risk. This agrees with my intuition
Read 15 tweets

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