1) Montreal and much of the rest of Quebec are at a deceptive point in the second wave, as new #COVID19 cases have apparently plateaued in the city. In this thread, I will caution against jumping to conclusions and will call for the public release of more data in the #pandemic.
2) First, the good news: the number of net #COVID19 hospitalizations in the province has declined for the first time in almost two weeks. Quebec did not report any deaths in the past 24 hours. In Montreal, the city posted 227 cases Sunday, the lowest daily number since Sept. 23.
3) At the neighborhood level, the health district of Petite-Patrie—Villeray reported six #COVID19 cases, the lowest since Sept. 24. Other boroughs also declared much fewer infections. Keep in mind, though, that the government chart below frequently undercounts.
4) Do the latest numbers suggest that the partial lockdown that Health Minister Christian Dubé announced on Sept. 24 is starting to work? Are the collective efforts of Quebecers in following the latest public health measures in avoiding large gatherings beginning to pay off?
5) My answer to those questions is twofold: First, it’s far too early to draw conclusions amid high case numbers; and second, authorities aren't releasing enough data to gain a clear understanding of the latest trends. For example, what are the testing positivity rates by region?
6) Quebecers are entitled to this information, along with the percentage of #COVID19 cases linked to the workplace, eldercare facilities, schools, hospitals and homes. Over the weekend, a group of Canadian scientists launched a petition urging the government to release this data.
7) The petition below warns that "unless Quebec's pandemic response is transparent, clear, accurate, and consistent, countless more Quebecers will fall ill, and more lives will be needlessly lost." change.org/p/fran%C3%A7oi…
8) The government should also heed the advice of Dr. Mylène Drouin, director of the Montreal public health department, who argued last week against the yo-yo effect of lockdowns, followed by the easing of restrictions, followed by more lockdowns.
9) Until a vaccine that protects against #COVID19 becomes available and is administered to everyone — likely next spring at the earliest — Quebec must devise a minimum set of restrictions to follow in the #pandemic and stick to it. End of thread. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
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1) Two Montreal schools announced over the long weekend that they're closing for two weeks after #COVID19 outbreaks. Quebec also reported an upswing of 20 hospitalizations Monday. In this thread, I'll try to explain why the province is in for a long haul during this second wave.
2) Collège Pasteur and Loyola High School will close for 14 days, marking at least the third private educational institution to shut in Montreal during the #pandemic. It’s worth noting private schools have acted more prudently to close than public ones. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) In addition to schools, covidecolesquebec.org has begun tracking #COVID19 in daycares, reporting Monday at least 11 affected in the province. The rise in cases corresponds with Montreal demographic data showing a marked percentage increase among children up to the age of 4.
1) This past Wednesday, Montreal health authorities disclosed a major #COVID19 outbreak at a seniors’ residence in the Quartier Latin that's infected at least 28 people, hospitalized six and killed one. Yet these stats still haven’t been listed in the provincial records. Why not?
2) Dr. Mylène Drouin publicized the outbreak at the Soleil Manoir Plaza to warn that a growing number of so-called mobile elderly are falling ill with #COVID19 in seniors’ residences as opposed to long-term care centres. She explained there was a lag in transmitting the data.
3) But four days later, the Soleil Manoir outbreak — which would appear to be the worst in the province — has still not appeared in the government’s updates, resulting in an undercount of at least 28 cases in the latest daily tally. Undercounts are a problem elsewhere, too.
1) Premier François Legault expressed guarded optimism on Friday that Quebec has “reached some level of stabilization” in #COVID19 cases. But a provincial health institute issued dire projections for Montreal’s intensive-care units. In this thread, I will review those forecasts.
2) This is what the institute had to say: “For the regions of Montreal, Laval, the Laurentians, Lanaudière and the Montérégie, projections suggest hospital capacity will be reached at the end of the next month and even more quickly with regard to intensive-care beds.”
3) Health Minister Christian Dubé tweeted his concerns about hospital capacity but didn't address the faster potential impact on the Montreal region’s ICUs. I’ve spoken with the chiefs of two Montreal ICUs, and they say they’re very worried their ICUs could soon be overwhelmed.
1) Montreal health authorities released for the first time Thursday a breakdown of #COVID outbreaks in the workplace, revealing that most have occurred in restaurants, bars, gyms and hotels. In this thread, I'll try to explain what this means for the city's #pandemic's response.
2) Public health officials are scrambling to contain more than 130 #COVID19 outbreaks in the metropolis: at least 51 in the workplace, 42 in schools, 18 in daycare centres and more than a dozen in health-care institutions that include public and private eldercare homes.
3) The breakdown by authorities lists 25 outbreaks affecting restaurants, bars, gyms, hotels, motels and temporary employment agencies as of Oct. 7. It’s clear that some workers in restaurants and bars, which closed to customers on Oct. 1, are still reeling from #COVID19.
1) In the span of a week, the number of #COVID19 hospitalizations in Montreal has more than doubled — from 61 to 125 — stretching the already-thin resources of the city’s health-care system. In this thread, I will return to the subject of Montreal’s fragile hospitals.
2) Authorities have set aside 1,000 out of the city’s 5,000 hospital beds for #pandemic cases. At the rate #COVID19 is spreading, Premier François Legault calculated on Wednesday that the province could be hit with as many as 1,600 new hospitalizations within a month’s time.
3) Montreal hospital emergency rooms are again starting to admit patients with #COVID19. ER nurses at the Lakeshore General Hospital are treating up to two COVID patients per shift. The chart below by the McGill University Health Centre from shows a recent COVID spike in its ERs.
1) Quebec is now beset with more than 500 #COVID19 outbreaks as the province posted a record 1,364 infections on Tuesday amid an upswing in hospitalizations and deaths. In this thread, I will assess whether the second wave in the #pandemic may prove more dangerous than the first.
2) Certainly, the potential is there for a more dangerous second wave. That’s because unlike the shutdown of the first wave, schools have reopened, and many businesses are still operating. At the same time, Quebec’s health-care system is stretched to the limit as never before.
3) And as the weather grows colder, more people will congregate indoors, providing the opportunity for the contagious #coronavirus to spread more easily. In November, the annual flu season will be upon us, raising the prospect of a Twindemic — #COVID19 coupled with the flu.