1) This past Wednesday, Montreal health authorities disclosed a major #COVID19 outbreak at a seniors’ residence in the Quartier Latin that's infected at least 28 people, hospitalized six and killed one. Yet these stats still haven’t been listed in the provincial records. Why not?
2) Dr. Mylène Drouin publicized the outbreak at the Soleil Manoir Plaza to warn that a growing number of so-called mobile elderly are falling ill with #COVID19 in seniors’ residences as opposed to long-term care centres. She explained there was a lag in transmitting the data.
3) But four days later, the Soleil Manoir outbreak — which would appear to be the worst in the province — has still not appeared in the government’s updates, resulting in an undercount of at least 28 cases in the latest daily tally. Undercounts are a problem elsewhere, too.
4) Neighborhood breakdowns by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec undercount the true total of Montreal’s cases almost every day. The Education Ministry’s weekday reports also undercount, when compared with the up-to-the-minute updates by covidecolesquebec.org.
5) Such inaccurate data — or serious lags in reporting data — raise suspicions and breed mistrust at a time when conspiracy theorists are flourishing. Authorities should once again redouble efforts to communicate better with the public during this second wave in the #pandemic.
6) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 277 #COVID19 cases on Saturday, down from 345 the day before, according to the orange line in the chart below. Does the chart suggest a plateauing? The true pattern will probably emerge by the end of next week to answer that question definitively.
7) But at the neighborhood level, two trends have emerged. The city centre — Côte-des-Neiges, downtown Métro, Parc Extension and Outremont — continue to drive transmission of the #coronavirus, while cases are relatively low in the health district of Dorval, Lachine and LaSalle.
8) Finally, the metropolis added another two #COVID19 fatalities Saturday to a death toll of 3,495 that has sadly picked up momentum during this second wave, with seniors once again dying disproportionately. End of thread. Please stay safe at home and wear a mask in public.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Aaron Derfel

Aaron Derfel Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Aaron_Derfel

11 Oct
1) Montreal and much of the rest of Quebec are at a deceptive point in the second wave, as new #COVID19 cases have apparently plateaued in the city. In this thread, I will caution against jumping to conclusions and will call for the public release of more data in the #pandemic.
2) First, the good news: the number of net #COVID19 hospitalizations in the province has declined for the first time in almost two weeks. Quebec did not report any deaths in the past 24 hours. In Montreal, the city posted 227 cases Sunday, the lowest daily number since Sept. 23. Image
3) At the neighborhood level, the health district of Petite-Patrie—Villeray reported six #COVID19 cases, the lowest since Sept. 24. Other boroughs also declared much fewer infections. Keep in mind, though, that the government chart below frequently undercounts. Image
Read 9 tweets
10 Oct
1) Premier François Legault expressed guarded optimism on Friday that Quebec has “reached some level of stabilization” in #COVID19 cases. But a provincial health institute issued dire projections for Montreal’s intensive-care units. In this thread, I will review those forecasts.
2) This is what the institute had to say: “For the regions of Montreal, Laval, the Laurentians, Lanaudière and the Montérégie, projections suggest hospital capacity will be reached at the end of the next month and even more quickly with regard to intensive-care beds.”
3) Health Minister Christian Dubé tweeted his concerns about hospital capacity but didn't address the faster potential impact on the Montreal region’s ICUs. I’ve spoken with the chiefs of two Montreal ICUs, and they say they’re very worried their ICUs could soon be overwhelmed.
Read 10 tweets
9 Oct
1) Montreal health authorities released for the first time Thursday a breakdown of #COVID outbreaks in the workplace, revealing that most have occurred in restaurants, bars, gyms and hotels. In this thread, I'll try to explain what this means for the city's #pandemic's response.
2) Public health officials are scrambling to contain more than 130 #COVID19 outbreaks in the metropolis: at least 51 in the workplace, 42 in schools, 18 in daycare centres and more than a dozen in health-care institutions that include public and private eldercare homes.
3) The breakdown by authorities lists 25 outbreaks affecting restaurants, bars, gyms, hotels, motels and temporary employment agencies as of Oct. 7. It’s clear that some workers in restaurants and bars, which closed to customers on Oct. 1, are still reeling from #COVID19.
Read 10 tweets
8 Oct
1) In the span of a week, the number of #COVID19 hospitalizations in Montreal has more than doubled — from 61 to 125 — stretching the already-thin resources of the city’s health-care system. In this thread, I will return to the subject of Montreal’s fragile hospitals.
2) Authorities have set aside 1,000 out of the city’s 5,000 hospital beds for #pandemic cases. At the rate #COVID19 is spreading, Premier François Legault calculated on Wednesday that the province could be hit with as many as 1,600 new hospitalizations within a month’s time.
3) Montreal hospital emergency rooms are again starting to admit patients with #COVID19. ER nurses at the Lakeshore General Hospital are treating up to two COVID patients per shift. The chart below by the McGill University Health Centre from shows a recent COVID spike in its ERs.
Read 10 tweets
7 Oct
1) Quebec is now beset with more than 500 #COVID19 outbreaks as the province posted a record 1,364 infections on Tuesday amid an upswing in hospitalizations and deaths. In this thread, I will assess whether the second wave in the #pandemic may prove more dangerous than the first.
2) Certainly, the potential is there for a more dangerous second wave. That’s because unlike the shutdown of the first wave, schools have reopened, and many businesses are still operating. At the same time, Quebec’s health-care system is stretched to the limit as never before.
3) And as the weather grows colder, more people will congregate indoors, providing the opportunity for the contagious #coronavirus to spread more easily. In November, the annual flu season will be upon us, raising the prospect of a Twindemic — #COVID19 coupled with the flu.
Read 12 tweets
6 Oct
1) More than a month after the school year started, Quebec will require high school students in red zones to wear masks in class as of Thursday. But that won’t be mandated for primary school children. In this thread, I will argue why children in this age group should wear masks.
2) Dr. Richard Massé, a public health advisor to the government, acknowledged that “there is some transmission (of the #coronavirus) in primary schools, but it’s much more limited than what we see in secondary schools.” Massé did not cite any statistics to back up his assertion.
3) In the absence of stats from the government, let me provide some #COVID19 figures by age group drawn from the Montreal public health department from Aug. 25, just before the start of the school year, until the most recent date available, Oct. 4. The stats are quite revealing.
Read 16 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!