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13 Oct, 17 tweets, 13 min read
The @IEA #WEO20 is out!

My deep-dive analysis:

🌞 solar 20-50% cheaper than IEA said last yr
🏭 coal in "structural decline"
⛽️ no peak yet for oil
🔥 gas to rise 30%
☁️ CO2 plateau…unless more climate action
🎯 + 1st-ever modelling on 1.5C

THREAD

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
Backdrop is #COVID19 pandemic and huge uncertainty, so #WEO20 changes usual roster of scenarios:

CPS out (for now)
STEPS gets "delayed recovery" (DRS) side case
SDS more prominent than before
NZE2050 = 1.5C pathway

The choice for the world:

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
One intriguing little nugget I found is that the SDS seems to be getting more prominent in recent WEOs.

Chart by @joejgoodman confirms a suspicion I'd been forming. (Any tips on PDF text tools tho? This was a bodge!)

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
#WEO20 includes a major new bit of work by @WannerBrent + colleagues @IEA on financing costs for solar + other renewables.

Result? Outlook says best solar now generates some of "lowest cost electricity in history" & solar generally cheaper than coal/gas:

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
Combined with policy developments over the last year eg India's higher targets, this means renewables grow much more quickly than expected before:

🌞 43% higher by 2040 than in STEPS 2018
🌬️ 16% higher

See also how coal never recovers from #COVID19

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
*pausing for late-waking toddler*

Back soon and there's more I've yet to finish adding to my analysis article so watch this space…
I'm back! We've just updated my piece with more:

Many of you will have been waiting for the "IEA solar" chart – and the news this year is STEPS now has rising growth (esp if you account for retirements)

See earlier tweets re solar costs…

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
The WEO has also historically cut the outlook for coal in successive outlooks, due to coal phaseout policies etc.

This year sees coal in "structural decline" after #COVID19

Coal is past its peak – yet far from a 1.5 or 2C path

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
But the rapid rise of renewables & coal's decline are not enough to force CO2 into retreat, with oil & gas continuing to rise without stronger climate policies

Chart shows how *all* fossil fuels would have to decline over next 20yrs to stay below 2C

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
This yr for 1st time, IEA has also modelled a 1.5C pathway, unfortunately without publishing the detailed numbers that come with STEPS/SDS

Many challenges, but one "essential" part of this "NZE2050 case" is behaviour change, mainly less driving & flying:

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
This builds on some new analysis, also a 1st for the WEO, looking at what impact various behaviour changes would make to CO2 emissions.

It sees savings reach 2bn tonnes of CO2 by 2030 – a significant contribution – with transport at forefront

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
(Many thanks to @Josh_Gabbatiss for writing up this section of the WEO, it just wasn't possible to crunch the numbers and at least *skim* through nearly 500pp on my own… plea for a longer embargo lead @merveerdill 😃)

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
Anyway there's loads more I could have focused on and plenty I have missed in the #WEO20 report, do check out tweets from @IEABirol and @IEA for more!

@IEABirol @IEA Oh, while we're here I might as well share some other charts that I made, which didn't make the cut…

Solar costs 2019 v 2020 set against coal/gas. This one's interesting!
@IEABirol @IEA Chart of analysis in the article text, showing rising reference to "1.5C" and "net zero" in successive WEOs
@IEABirol @IEA The STEPS is still the main scenario in the WEO, contra wishes of #FixTheWEO @mckinnon_hannah et al – but the SDS is catching up

(mentions per 100 pages)
@IEABirol @IEA @mckinnon_hannah Two views of how fossil fuel use (and CO2 emissions) must decline by 2030 to meet global climate goals, with particularly steep declines for 1.5C.

See my previous analysis on this:

carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-c…

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More from @DrSimEvans

Simon Evans Profile picture
7 Oct
I see the £50bn price tag of building another 30GW of offshore wind is making headlines, so some context

Most impt is that the invst will be private & we'll pay via bills, which will be lower than for alternative sources

carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
Also worth noting that estimated investment of £50bn to build 30GW of offshore wind capacity is about 2x the amount invested for the first 10GW

So 2x invst yielding 3x capacity, which will yield perhaps 50% more electricity per GW as larger turbines etc.

auroraer.com/insight/reachi…
Finally, investment over a decade is bound to sound big. But we already collectively spend colossal sums on energy in the UK.

50bn/10yrs = 5bn/yr
~67bn/yr = consumer energy spend
~18bn/yr = consumer spend on electricity

gov.uk/government/col…
Read 5 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
6 Oct
UK to target 40GW of offshore wind

A few points to note

1/ offshore wind is set to be "negative subsidy" within just a few years

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the…
2/ Offshore wind is much cheaper than the government expected only a few years ago

carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
3/ Reaching 40GW means tripling the rate of growth over the past decade

auroraer.com/insight/reachi…
Read 8 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
5 Oct
Eye-popping new data just out for UK car sales in Sep20

⚡️ new record for BEVs, up 3x in a yr & 7x since 2016
🔌 >10% of cars now come with a plug
⛽️ just 2/3 are conventional cars (cf 98% in 2015)
🚗 overall sales down ~40% since 2017 peak

THREAD with my analysis of @SMMT data Image
More than 10% of UK new car sales now come with a plug ie pure EVs or plug-in hybrids

With the rise of hybrids, now at a record 21% of sales, that means only ~2/3 of new cars sold in the UK today are conventional petrol or diesel, down from around 98% just five years ago (!) Image
Remarkably, diesels now make up just 14% of UK new car sales, down from around 50% in 2015 Image
Read 7 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
17 Sep
THREAD: What's going on with UK new nuclear plans?

This week has seen one project finally cancelled – plus heavy briefing from No 10 on new support for nuclear.

Let's recap where things stand today and look at what might happen next…

1/
TL;DR

UK govt still vv keen on new nuclear but options dwindling due to Wylfa cancellation & aversion to Chinese $$ in Sizewell

Briefing suggests No 10 looking for ways to get Sizewell over line, but I doubt final decision imminent

Energy white paper likely to have more…

2/
So…some background

Nuclear supplies a little less than 20% of UK electricity generation, which it has been doing for decades

But output has slipped a bit in recent years due to retirements and lengthy closures for maintenance.

3/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-lo…
Read 27 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
27 Aug
Everyone knows renewables have made staggering cost reductions in recent yrs

Now, the UK government has finally admitted it, slashing its cost estimates for wind & solar by 30-50%

All the details of its new "levelised cost" figures in my new piece:

1/
carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
It's not the 1st time UK govt has dramatically revised its estimates of wind & solar costs, having cut <30% off in 2016

This time it also made big reductions to its estimates for CCS…just in time for CCS to feature in the upcoming white paper 🤔

2/
carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
Also 'interesting' to note that BEIS had updated its cost estimates in 2018 & 2019, but never published the results despite many many questions in parliament…

3/
Read 6 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
24 Jul
EU govts agreed a covid recovery deal this week inc plans "with a view to" starting a carbon border tax from 2023.

Details are thin & nothing yet final, but European Commission is consulting on the idea.

What does it say & why am I sceptical?

THREAD

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…
Just for background, here is my thread on the EU deal

Also notable is that the draft US Democratic climate platform mentions carbon border adjustments.

An idea whose time has come?

Read 15 tweets

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