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14 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Florida mail vote update 10.14.20:

@FlaDems +402,675
(+18,334 from yesterday)

DEM: 967,036 (37.2% returned)
GOP: 564,361 (31.8)
N/3/I: 385,523 (29)

TOTAL: 1,916,920
Mail ballots yet to be returned & processed:

DEM: 1,596,355
GOP: 1,206,246
N/3/I: 943,138

Early voting begins 10.19.20.

Combined mail/early/e voters remaining*:

DEM: 4,236,759
GOP: 4,455,838
N/3/I: 3,455,713

*9/1/20 registration data
Blue counties to watch rates:

Palm Beach 39.3%
Broward 29.8
Miami-Dade 22.3*
Hillsborough 34.8
Orange 25.6*
Leon 30.3

Red:
Lee 43.7
Brevard 28.4
Sarasota 40.1
Volusia 38.1
Polk 32.2
Pasco 43.5

Swing:
Duval 35.1
Pinellas 28.1
Seminole 15.9*
St. Lucie 33

*lowest 3 out of 67

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More from @KevinCate

Kevin Cate Profile picture
15 Oct
Florida mail vote update 10.15.20:

🚨@FlaDems +420,119🚨
(+17,444 from yesterday)

DEM: 1,043,514 (40.5% returned)
GOP: 623,395 (35)
N/3/I: 425,222 (31.7)

TOTAL: 2,092,131
Mail ballots not yet returned/reported:

DEM: 1,532,064
GOP: 1,157,483
N/3/I: 914,574

PSA: Return your mail ballots by USPS (sign the back) or drop your mail ballot off at your local SOE's office.
To put today's registered @FlaDems +420,119 mail vote advantage in perspective, at this point in 2016, it was GOP +19,649 out of 1,004,917 total votes.
Read 6 tweets
Kevin Cate Profile picture
14 Oct
Saw Trump is still airing the Dr. Fauci ad, despite Dr. Fauci's objections. Per usual, it's basically all stock footage with actors. Drop a like and I'll show you that, plus a heart warming ending. I promise it's worth it.
Here is the ad.
(I muted it for you, you're welcome).

It opens with some 1980's era "business closed" footage and includes some nondescript "medical research."

But let's focus on the "real people."

Like to keep it going and see where they bought it.
First up, we've got "mother with two children" via FILMPAC (not a political committee).

Hopefully they get a cut of that $49.

Like for the next one. Image
Read 11 tweets
Kevin Cate Profile picture
13 Oct
I’ve got some more Florida turnout news. Y’all into that or no?

If so, drop a like & follow this chain.
Democratic turnout rates are higher than Republicans in every single county in Florida. 67 out of 67.

Want more? Drop another like.
Out of the 1,782,663 mail ballots returned & reported, there are 386,799 voters who didn't vote in 2016.

Of these new voters, registered @FlaDems are leading registered Republicans by 99,842.

DEM: 189,139
GOP: 89,297
N/3/I: 108,363

Shall I continue? Drop another like.
Read 8 tweets
Kevin Cate Profile picture
11 Oct
Florida mail vote update 10.11.20:

🚨@FlaDems + 358,265🚨
(+16,982 from yesterday)

DEM: 841,355 (33.2% returned)
GOP: 483,090 (27.7)
N/3/I: 327,943 (25.2)

TOTAL: 1,652,388
This far from E-Day 2016, 316,149 Floridians had voted & GOP held a +6,521 advantage.

Dems went into E-Day +88k.

Final was GOP +55k b/c 31.5% of GOPs waited until E-Day to vote (+157k more than Dems) —h/t @electionsmith.

Final '16 by Reg:
DEM: 38.1%
GOP: 38.7
NPA: 20.7
Blue counties to watch rates:
Palm Beach 37.8%
Broward 27
Miami-Dade 14.8*
Hillsborough 32
Orange 22.2
Leon 26.7

Red:
Lee 40.5
Brevard 25.3
Sarasota 382
Volusia 36
Polk 27.7
Pasco 41.5

Swing:
Duval 31.7*
Pinellas 25.2
Seminole 13.4
St. Lucie 30.8

*unchanged from yesterday
Read 5 tweets
Kevin Cate Profile picture
15 Sep
Guys, literally everything @realDonaldTrump does is fake. He hired models for his announcement. But, since we're talking about stock pictures & footage, allow me...
Here is the last commercial I've seen in Florida — touting the "Great American Comeback." Watch it on mute. And then I'll show you how they made it.
First. Good news. The Trump team found a scientist in a lab with Matrix-style computer screens who invented a COVID—19 vaccine. And it's being manufactured right now.

All for less than $500!
Read 15 tweets
Kevin Cate Profile picture
1 Aug 18
Rough 2018 TV spending numbers in #flgov primary:

Greene: $13,495,158
Levine: $10,685,644
Graham: $5,402,488
King: $3,877,897
Gillum: $98,490

But not all TV is equal. In gross rating points...
Broadcast TV gross rating points through this week:

Levine: 33,390
Greene: 32,990
King: 21,657
Graham: 9,490
Gillum: 0

What this means is...
Hypothetically, spread over 10 markets imperfectly because markets are different and not everyone is spending in all, the average voter has seen ads by these candidates this many times:

Levine: 33
Greene: 33
King: 21
Graham: 11 (number above was actually 11,417 GRPs)
Gillum: 0
Read 8 tweets

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