"Where did the future go" with David Graeber
Leaving big law firm: "on the outside everybody wanted in, on the inside everybody wanted to leave." People said it was "good to see someone could escape Alcatraz" when "all you had to do was go out the front door"
"Developing the developed world" (2013)
Globalization vs. technology
"Most of the companies in the Nasdaq are described as technology but they are really bets against technology"
->Fundamental bet that there will be no technological disruption
"Financial markets and the singularity"
Japan as the first "hyperboom" and "what if the mathematicians at LTCM were right?"
"Failures and self-hatred of big tech"
The pendulum of centralization vs. de-cententralization
Nature of progress: bits vs. atoms
"Technology is about people, human agency. Not inanimate forces, Marxist Historicism"
Also: reforming education and the Bitcoin origin story
Meeting Rene Girard ("one of the last great generalists") and implementing mimetic theory: preemptively avoiding internal conflict in a business.
"People don't fight about differences but about wanting the same things."
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In 1987, an unknown black lawyer rocked Wall Street with the $985 million LBO of Beatrice International.
Reginald Lewis had bootstrapped his way to the top of the buyout world, negotiating with the likes of Henry Kravis and Michael Milken.
Kenneth Frazier, CEO of Merck: “Reg Lewis opened up a world of possibilities for an entire generation of black business leaders. I distinctly recall my reaction when he engineered the acquisition of Beatrice Foods. I said to myself, “Who is this brother?’”
Lewis grew up in Baltimore and wanted to play professional football. However, after an injury he ingeniously worked his way into Harvard Law School.
He joined a prestigious law firm but was told he wouldn't make partner.
Larry Ellison in 2002: "I knew that the dot-com thing was madness."
At the height of the dot-com boom he crated a website called "HeyIdiot" where people could bid on HeyIdiot stock.
"The horrifying thing was we got messages: 'We're trying to buy the stock and it's not working.'"
Ellison once paid investigators to go through Microsoft's garbage
"I wouldn't want to through garbage personally, because I'm wearing a very expensive suit. If Microsoft wanted to deceive the American people and not get caught, they should have bought a few more shredders."
"Technology is going the same way as the car industry. There is going to be a handful of large technology competitors. The idea that the software and computer industries are going to be forever young is fanciful."
Even Bill Gates sat down with Playboy (in 1994). He was all over the internet and how it would change the world. web.archive.org/web/2010080107…
Netflix, Yelp, social media:
"Video on demand, finding people with common interests, picking a doctor"
"You'll want to know what movies others liked, based on what you thought of other movies. Afterward, you can even share what you thought."
"Community will expand"
So very 90's: "we're involved in a new generation of fax machines"
Meanwhile, his "wallet PC" is the iPhone: "buttons replaced with a graphics interface. Digital keys, tickets, money, maps."
"I don’t believe any Internet company is appropriate for short-term investors."
"It's too easy to check stock prices and it's a complete waste of time."
I almost spit out my coffee when he talked about dating:
"I am not the kind of person women fall in love with. I sort of grow on them, like a fungus."
Soros thought deeply about the self-reinforcing relationship between perception and reality:
"A boom/bust process occurs only when market prices find a way to influence the so-called fundamentals that are supposed to be reflected in market prices."
A recent example was the boom in "platform" companies as laid out in this excellent 2015 presentation.
"Shopify sells a simple SaaS solution that enables a business to quickly setup and run an online retail store. A typical customer signs up using their credit card and is up and running in a few hours"
@tobi
"We don’t feel like there is any immediate need to replace him as CEO"🧐
"He has a clear vision for building the business and recognizes his own shortcomings."