We have 67 counties in Florida, but since presidential campaigns are marketing campaigns that orient spending by media market, here's a comparison of the past three presidential election results broken down by media market (thanks @DavidCypkin for the graphics!)
Tweet 1 of X
2 of X
Let's drill down on 2016 vs. the other elections, especially by looking at the I-4 corridor (Tampa and Orlando) compared first to 2008
Notice how Obama 2008 won it and the difference with Trump 2016
3 of 3
Look at Tampa v Miami
In Miami, Clinton’s '16 margin was 3 points bigger than Obama '12. Clinton won it by 579,583 ballots. Obama: 472,840
In Tampa, Trump's margin 7 points bigger than Romney's over Obama. Trump won it by 190,281 ballots. Romney: 38,811
What do the swing states look like today? My colleagues and I (who live in or have roots in and around each) give you a tour of AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, MN, PA and WI
Tweet 1 of 10
2. Once crimson-red, Arizona looks as if it could seriously go blue
Though the Democrats’ 905k-521k lead is big, Republicans have about 400k more high-propensity voters in reserve
Those voters came in handy in 2016 when Clinton led by 247k pre-Election Day votes but so many Trump voters showed that she lost by nearly 113k politi.co/373BB6N
On the other hand, Ds say this time they’re turning out more low-propensity and first-time voters as well, and that the 20% of independents who have voted so far look more like Democratic voters than Republicans.
FL state Sen @JoeGruters & GOP chair to me: “It’s idiotic.”
I asked him if he would have pro-Trump electors declare him the winner even if Biden carried Florida & he said “no.” Asked again, he said “No. We would not do that”
Incoming Florida House Speaker @ChrisSprowls was sent the tweet in question about electors & told my colleague @Mdixon55: “no. Because it is totally crazy. We are fresh out of tin hats.”
A spokeswoman for incoming Florida Senate President @WiltonSimpson similarly denied this claim, referencing statute 103.011 says electors are bound by the actual election results 👇 bit.ly/304Dw6R
Asked if this is true, @jdbalart said: “Of course not. He was asked to answer questions from Telemundo viewers —they were on a monitor. He would answer the monitor. In one moment the monitor went to black — he said ‘I lost the lady’I told him he could answer looking at me“ 1/2
...”and that was that.” I asked @jdbalart about it because I know him well and he’s a helluva reporter first and foremost and he would never agree to something like this, where a subject gets interview questions or is allowed to answer off a teleprompter