What do the swing states look like today? My colleagues and I (who live in or have roots in and around each) give you a tour of AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, MN, PA and WI

Tweet 1 of 10
2. Once crimson-red, Arizona looks as if it could seriously go blue

via @lbarronlopez politi.co/34YdaVD
3. Florida gonna Florida

by me politi.co/3lPy2p9
4. Sure, the Georgia cities and suburbs get loads of attention. But look at what Trump is doing in rural parts of the state

via @ec_schneider

politi.co/33Z3dIp
5. Michigan's @TimAlberta sees the sign of a potential Biden blowout

politi.co/374xsQ4
6. Minnesota looks as if Biden's keeping it blue, writes native son @davidsiders politi.co/3k0cO7c
7. North Carolina's @michaelkruse writes that a crucial US Senate race and ultra-competitive presidential race make this battleground a real swing state again

politi.co/377m7iq
8. Pennsylvania's @hollyotterbein writes that Trump's campaign appears to have hit a wall there as Biden has lavished attention on a state where he was nicknamed its third senator politi.co/33XSgGX
9. Democrats are voting in huge numbers already in Wisconsin, but Republicans tell @natashakorecki that their strongholds are "glowing red" politi.co/3k50iDO
10. It's great to work at a place with so many talented colleagues, great edit and leadership from @PoliticoCharlie

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More from @MarcACaputo

14 Oct
We have 67 counties in Florida, but since presidential campaigns are marketing campaigns that orient spending by media market, here's a comparison of the past three presidential election results broken down by media market (thanks @DavidCypkin for the graphics!)

Tweet 1 of X
2 of X

Let's drill down on 2016 vs. the other elections, especially by looking at the I-4 corridor (Tampa and Orlando) compared first to 2008

Notice how Obama 2008 won it and the difference with Trump 2016
3 of 3

Look at Tampa v Miami

In Miami, Clinton’s '16 margin was 3 points bigger than Obama '12. Clinton won it by 579,583 ballots. Obama: 472,840

In Tampa, Trump's margin 7 points bigger than Romney's over Obama. Trump won it by 190,281 ballots. Romney: 38,811
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct
As President Trump demonized mail-in voting, FL Dems pushed its base to vote as early as possible

The result: Ds have a historic 384k lead over Rs in absentee ballots cast

The GOP’s planning to swamp the polls @ in-person early voting & Election Day 1/x

politi.co/373BB6N
Though the Democrats’ 905k-521k lead is big, Republicans have about 400k more high-propensity voters in reserve

Those voters came in handy in 2016 when Clinton led by 247k pre-Election Day votes but so many Trump voters showed that she lost by nearly 113k
politi.co/373BB6N
On the other hand, Ds say this time they’re turning out more low-propensity and first-time voters as well, and that the 20% of independents who have voted so far look more like Democratic voters than Republicans.

So stay tuned. The numbers will change politi.co/373BB6N
Read 6 tweets
6 Oct
We often talk of a race “tightening” but is it fair to say it’s “loosening” in states like PA?

politi.co/2GKYrVW
Looks looser
Florida Lol
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep
FL state Sen @JoeGruters & GOP chair to me: “It’s idiotic.”

I asked him if he would have pro-Trump electors declare him the winner even if Biden carried Florida & he said “no.” Asked again, he said “No. We would not do that”
Incoming Florida House Speaker @ChrisSprowls was sent the tweet in question about electors & told my colleague @Mdixon55: “no. Because it is totally crazy. We are fresh out of tin hats.”
A spokeswoman for incoming Florida Senate President @WiltonSimpson similarly denied this claim, referencing statute 103.011 says electors are bound by the actual election results 👇 bit.ly/304Dw6R
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep
Asked if this is true, @jdbalart said: “Of course not. He was asked to answer questions from Telemundo viewers —they were on a monitor. He would answer the monitor. In one moment the monitor went to black — he said ‘I lost the lady’I told him he could answer looking at me“
1/2
...”and that was that.” I asked @jdbalart about it because I know him well and he’s a helluva reporter first and foremost and he would never agree to something like this, where a subject gets interview questions or is allowed to answer off a teleprompter

@TLMDPR should clarify
Maybe I’ll add a third tweet explaining why I checked this: it was tweeted to me this morning on an unrelated matter.

So I checked it out

Read 8 tweets
19 Sep
Let’s go Canes
Good ole Canes. Open up with an 18 yard play and then shut the bed into a 3 & 24.

Why Miami does not recruit good linemen or coach them properly is beyond me. A decades-old problem
Time to get scored on? Let’s see if it’s the same old defense or worse
Read 7 tweets

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