Thread by @AndrewPEllison

The results of our crowdsourced SurveyUSA Indiana poll are officially in, showing a single-digit presidential race, strong support for cannabis legalization and Roe v. Wade, and much more! Read the thread below for results and analysis! Link with crosstabs at the end. (1/25)

As a primer, SurveyUSA divides Indiana into four distinct regions for crosstab analysis. I've created this graphic to help visualize these four regions, along with the 2018 US Senate results by region for comparison, which show the benchmarks each party needs to reach. (2/25)

US President (Indiana)

Donald Trump (R): 49%
Joe Biden (D): 42%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 6%

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
527 Likely Voters

(3/25)

US President (Indiana by Region and % of Vote)

Northern (34%): Trump 49-39
Central (17%): Trump 58-29
Indianapolis (26%): Biden 56-35
Southern (23%): Trump 59-40

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
527 Likely Voters

(4/25)

(Asked 259 Trump Voters)
Is yours more a vote for Trump? Or against Biden?
For Trump: 82%
Against Biden: 16%
Not Sure: 2%

(Asked 220 Biden Voters)
Is yours more a vote for Biden? Or against Trump?
For Biden: 56%
Against Trump: 39%
Not Sure: 4%

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA

(5/25)

The president numbers squarely fit my suspicion that Biden is in the 42-46% range. Notably, Biden is winning the Indianapolis Metro 56-35 (Donnelly only won it 51-45 in 2018). If Biden is approaching 60% here, Christina Hale is likely winning #IN05. (6/25)

https://twitter.com/AndrewPEllison/status/1314321089477177345

Governor (Indiana)

Eric Holcomb (R): 55%
Woody Myers (D): 25%
Donald Rainwater (L): 10%
Undecided: 11%

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
527 Likely Voters

(7/25)

Governor (Indiana by Region and % of Vote)

Northern (34%): Holcomb 57-23-9
Central (17%): Holcomb 54-18-11
Indianapolis (26%): Holcomb 50-31-11
Southern (23%): Holcomb 56-26-9

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
527 Likely Voters

(8/25)

Holcomb's numbers are holding up despite some backlash to his mask mandate. He's winning 37% of black voters, 31% of Biden voters, and even the Indianapolis metro 50-31-11. Holcomb might win Marion County. Rainwater's 10% would also be a historic Libertarian performance. (9/25)

Attorney General (Indiana)

Todd Rokita (R): 48%
Jonathan Weinzapfel (D): 35%
Undecided: 17%

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
527 Likely Voters

(10/25)

Attorney General (Indiana by Region and % of Vote)

Northern (34%): Rokita 52-31
Central (17%): Rokita 56-22
Indianapolis (26%): Weinzapfel 47-41
Southern (23%): Rokita 46-35

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
527 Likely Voters

(11/25)

Weinzapfel is meeting Joe Donnelly's 2018 margin in the Indianapolis Metro and is even doing a little better in Southern Indiana. The problem is that Rokita is running up the score in Central and Northern Indiana, where Weinzapfel's name recognition is relatively lower. (12/25)

Which one of these 5 issues is most important in casting your 2020 ballot?

Economy: 38% (Trump 70-22)
Healthcare: 21% (Biden 61-32)
COVID-19: 20% (Biden 72-21)
Racial Inequality: 4% (N/A)
Crime and Safety: 13% (Trump 68-16)

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
527 Likely Voters

(13/25)

Approval and Favorable Ratings (Indiana)

Donald Trump (R): 51-46
Joe Biden (D): 45-51
Eric Holcomb (R): 67-24
Woody Myers (D): 26-21
Donald Rainwater (L): 18-14
Mike Pence (R): 51-41
Pete Buttigieg (D): 37-31

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
757 Registered Voters

(14/25)

Biden's numbers are pretty decent overall, including 56-37 favorables in the Indianapolis Metro. Trump is underwater 40-59 in the Indy Metro by comparison. Holcomb maintains a very robust approval rating. Buttigieg has good favs and could run for Gov/Senate in the future. (15/25)

Should marijuana in Indiana remain illegal? Be legalized for medical use but remain illegal for recreational use? Or be legalized for both?

Remain Illegal: 16%
Legalized for Medical: 24%
Legalized for Both: 53%
Not Sure: 8%

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
900 Adults

(16/25)

This is an incredibly notable result, particularly because legislative Republicans have staunchly opposed any efforts to end Indiana's prohibition of cannabis. Only 28% of Republicans support full illegality, with a 43% Republican plurality supporting full legalization. (17/25)

Do you approve? Or, do you disapprove? Of the requirement that Indiana residents continue to wear facemasks in public spaces?

Strongly Approve: 52%
Somewhat Approve: 23%
Somewhat Disapprove: 11%
Strongly Disapprove: 11%

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
900 Adults

(18/25)

This is another notable result, especially as @GovHolcomb considers his approach to COVID-19 regulations going forward. A vocal minority of conservative activists have loudly opposed his mask mandate, but most voters approve of it, including Republicans by a 63-35 spread. (19/25)

(Asked 615 Adults Familiar with Roe v. Wade)
Should Roe v. Wade remain the law of the land? Or, should Roe v. Wade be overturned?

Remain Law of Land: 58%
Be Overturned: 27%
Not Sure: 15%

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA

(20/25)

This is excellent evidence of how question wording can give you entirely different answers! In this group, 40% identify as pro-life; 30% are pro-choice; 27% are in the middle. 91% of pro-choice adults support Roe predictably, but 31% of pro-life adults support Roe too! (21/25)

It's hard to overstate how out on a limb Republicans are on Roe v. Wade. Only 42% of Indiana Republicans want it overturned, with 37% wanting it to remain. Even among evangelical adults, there is only 45-37 support for overturning Roe. It would be disastrous for the GOP. (22/25)

My main takeaways from this Indiana survey:
1.) Voters softly support Trump, but it could become a tossup
2.) Holcomb still gets high marks on his way to a historic re-election
3.) Voters want cannabis legalized
4.) Voters strongly support mask mandate and Roe v. Wade
(23/25)

Thank you to everyone who contributed to the crowdfunding effort that made this survey possible. I am so incredibly grateful to everyone who believed in this effort and gave what they could to help everyone learn how Hoosiers feel about this election! (24/25)

To read SurveyUSA's write-up of these survey results, as well as the full crosstabs of these results, please use the link below. Thank you for following along and giving the Hoosier state a bit of your time! (25/25)
surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…