Here's a remarkable detail buried in @IEA #WEO20

India will build 86% less new coal power capacity than expected last yr

Long seen as driving global coal growth, IEA now says India will add just 25GW by 2040

The result? Global coal capacity will fall.

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
@IEA That's the outlook in the IEA "STEPS", a scenario based only on current policies + firmly backed targets.

If India – & the world – want to move towards well-below 2C, then India's coal capacity should fall by some 40% by 2040…

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
@IEA According to #WEO20 the picture for coal power generation in India is even more stark under the SDS, where it falls to 84% below current levels by 2040.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Simon Evans

Simon Evans Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DrSimEvans

13 Oct
The @IEA #WEO20 is out!

My deep-dive analysis:

🌞 solar 20-50% cheaper than IEA said last yr
🏭 coal in "structural decline"
⛽️ no peak yet for oil
🔥 gas to rise 30%
☁️ CO2 plateau…unless more climate action
🎯 + 1st-ever modelling on 1.5C

THREAD

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
Backdrop is #COVID19 pandemic and huge uncertainty, so #WEO20 changes usual roster of scenarios:

CPS out (for now)
STEPS gets "delayed recovery" (DRS) side case
SDS more prominent than before
NZE2050 = 1.5C pathway

The choice for the world:

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
One intriguing little nugget I found is that the SDS seems to be getting more prominent in recent WEOs.

Chart by @joejgoodman confirms a suspicion I'd been forming. (Any tips on PDF text tools tho? This was a bodge!)

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
Read 17 tweets
7 Oct
I see the £50bn price tag of building another 30GW of offshore wind is making headlines, so some context

Most impt is that the invst will be private & we'll pay via bills, which will be lower than for alternative sources

carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
Also worth noting that estimated investment of £50bn to build 30GW of offshore wind capacity is about 2x the amount invested for the first 10GW

So 2x invst yielding 3x capacity, which will yield perhaps 50% more electricity per GW as larger turbines etc.

auroraer.com/insight/reachi…
Finally, investment over a decade is bound to sound big. But we already collectively spend colossal sums on energy in the UK.

50bn/10yrs = 5bn/yr
~67bn/yr = consumer energy spend
~18bn/yr = consumer spend on electricity

gov.uk/government/col…
Read 5 tweets
6 Oct
UK to target 40GW of offshore wind

A few points to note

1/ offshore wind is set to be "negative subsidy" within just a few years

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the…
2/ Offshore wind is much cheaper than the government expected only a few years ago

carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
3/ Reaching 40GW means tripling the rate of growth over the past decade

auroraer.com/insight/reachi…
Read 8 tweets
5 Oct
Eye-popping new data just out for UK car sales in Sep20

⚡️ new record for BEVs, up 3x in a yr & 7x since 2016
🔌 >10% of cars now come with a plug
⛽️ just 2/3 are conventional cars (cf 98% in 2015)
🚗 overall sales down ~40% since 2017 peak

THREAD with my analysis of @SMMT data Image
More than 10% of UK new car sales now come with a plug ie pure EVs or plug-in hybrids

With the rise of hybrids, now at a record 21% of sales, that means only ~2/3 of new cars sold in the UK today are conventional petrol or diesel, down from around 98% just five years ago (!) Image
Remarkably, diesels now make up just 14% of UK new car sales, down from around 50% in 2015 Image
Read 7 tweets
17 Sep
THREAD: What's going on with UK new nuclear plans?

This week has seen one project finally cancelled – plus heavy briefing from No 10 on new support for nuclear.

Let's recap where things stand today and look at what might happen next…

1/
TL;DR

UK govt still vv keen on new nuclear but options dwindling due to Wylfa cancellation & aversion to Chinese $$ in Sizewell

Briefing suggests No 10 looking for ways to get Sizewell over line, but I doubt final decision imminent

Energy white paper likely to have more…

2/
So…some background

Nuclear supplies a little less than 20% of UK electricity generation, which it has been doing for decades

But output has slipped a bit in recent years due to retirements and lengthy closures for maintenance.

3/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-lo…
Read 27 tweets
27 Aug
Everyone knows renewables have made staggering cost reductions in recent yrs

Now, the UK government has finally admitted it, slashing its cost estimates for wind & solar by 30-50%

All the details of its new "levelised cost" figures in my new piece:

1/

carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
It's not the 1st time UK govt has dramatically revised its estimates of wind & solar costs, having cut <30% off in 2016

This time it also made big reductions to its estimates for CCS…just in time for CCS to feature in the upcoming white paper 🤔

2/

carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
Also 'interesting' to note that BEIS had updated its cost estimates in 2018 & 2019, but never published the results despite many many questions in parliament…

3/
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!