mngander Profile picture
17 Oct, 17 tweets, 5 min read
THREAD MN Early and VBM Statistics - Oct 17 Morning Update. Thanks to all who have commented and let me know they like this analysis. RT & follow, please
@CottoGottfried @LarrySchweikart
(2) I have added some rows and columns to my table. Here's the one I've got for today that updates the state of things here in MN with yesterday's data drop from TargetSmart.
Let's go through it!
(3) I have columns for pct of 2016 vote and % of the vote each candidate got in '16. I added in the remaining vote for Trump and Biden to reach the '16 totals in each CD.
(4) The first colored columns are where I have the Trump and Biden vote coming in compared to the average (the first column. This metric is like looking how fast a horse is running around the race track and also how much "gas in the tank" the horse has to keep at that pace.
(5) If you're under 90%, that means you haven't brought all the votes in you have yet and have upside. If you are over 130%, you're eating into your available vote before ED is even here. What you notice is a lot of red on Biden's side, showing he's getting votes in faster.
(6) He does have a lot of votes available to bring in compared to '16, but if you look along the bottom, Trump has 954K remaining vote to bring and Biden only has 821K to bring -- so Trump has plenty of upside to bank 132K votes as we move through ED.
(7) I also took a stab at figuring out what might happen to the "Others" -- non Trump/Clinton vote from '16 that cost Trump MN. Those voters will show up and I've modeled their turnout % and then the margin that Trump would bank out of the turnout. Margin % = Trump% - Biden%
(8) So on the right you can see Trump would get a banked margin today of 56K votes and Biden would end up with a banked margin of 232K votes, so 175K margin to Biden as things stand right now.
(9) But, HOLD IT -- TAKE NOTE! CD4 and CD5 have monster vote for Trump that hasn't shown up yet - Can Trump get all remaining vote from '16 out to vote & will Biden be able to do the same? Trump has 136K votes and Biden has 244K remaining across these 2 districts.
(10) Moving on through the other columns, we can add up Trump's incoming ED vote margin bank from the green column on the bottom left to get 229K. His total margin on ED + Early/VBM is 285K the way things sit right now.
(11) I am assuming Biden will only bank vote margins from here up to ED & not on ED. So, for Biden, it's question of whether he can get his remaining vote out. If he does, then you get a Trump win by around 1.75% or 53K votes. That 232K in yellow is Biden's total vote bank...
(12) ...through yesterday's update. What this is telling us is unless Biden can find votes to bring to increase his turnout and vote banking above what HRC got in '16, he can't win MN. There are just too many places for Trump to find available votes to get out now.
(13) Keep it tuned to this channel. I'll be able to issue daily updates as TargetSmart drops new data. Will add some geographical buckets to this table with numbers for CD4 and CD5, then the Twin Cities suburbs in the 7 county metro area, and then outstate. RT and follow!
(!4) Get out and vote and bring your neighbor/friend to vote too! Trump needs every single one of us to show up and MAKE OUR VOICE HEARD! The silent majority will speak! We will not be silenced!
(15) Sorry, forgot my manners. \END THREAD -- Happy for any comments below! Glad my fans find this useful and informative!
New Tweet (2) -- Sorry for jumbling this up, but wanted to get a better screenshot. Let me know if this works.
Here's a clearer screenshot.

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More from @mngander92

16 Oct
THREAD MN Early and VBM Statistics - Oct 16 Morning Update. Thanks to all who have commented and let me know they like this analysis. RT & follow, please @CottoGottfried @LarrySchweikart @TRElections @PollWatch2020 @quantuspolling @Politics_Polls @Barnes_Law (1)
(2) I'm going to get uber-geeky today, but it's the data scientist/mathematician in me. Let's take a deep dive into yesterday's numbers. I wanted to answer two questions:
- Where does the net vote margin banked stand today?
- What is ahead in terms of available votes to bank?
(3) So, here's a graphic we can dig into. It breaks down the vote totals and vote margins banked by each of the 8 Congressional Districts in MN. I'll go from left to right, column by column and then from top to bottom, District by District.
Read 19 tweets
14 Oct
MN Early Voting & VBM Update -- October 14 THREAD @CottoGottfried @LarrySchweikart @TRElections @davidchapman141 @RealAPolitics @quantuspolling Follow me to get updates! RT also to send to your friends! Many thanks to all who have let me know they appreciate this analysis. (1)
(2)As of today's update, 24.5% of the vote that showed up in 2016 has now been banked by Early In Person & VBM in Minnesota. So, we can begin to get an idea of some of the math that carries us from here into Election Day.
(3) We have 720K votes in so far, and TargetSmart modeling has that breaking down D 361K, R 196K I 163K I had forecasted last week that to keep a flat rate of vote margin banking, we had to get these to 374K 196K and 161K this week So, Rs are OVER their target & Ds are under.
Read 11 tweets
12 Oct
@CottoGottfried @RealAPolitics @PollWatch2020 @davidchapman141 @LarrySchweikart THREAD - MN Early Voting/VBM Update - Lunchtime October 12, 2020. Quick update today, but will have more as we go through the week, so follow me to see more updates. (1)
(2) I checked the D/R/I numbers on ballot returns in Dakota County. Only 1,000 net vote margin banked for Biden so far here and Hillary got almost 25% of her 44K statewide vote margin here. Key county for Trump to keep even with Biden, or flip to red and it's looking good.
(3) CD2 has 36%R, 33%D in its ballot returns so far and that's key to flipping that district back to red. If it goes red, as Dakota County is its biggest population center, it would also flip that county, likely to red.
Read 8 tweets

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