Some of the best scientific minds of India shared some findings today in a virtual press conference on the mathematical model “#COVID_19 India National Supermodel”. It is significant that such models are being used by the policymakers to serve as input in making decisions. 
The committee accessed:
1. Potential impact of the lockdown measures - did it help reduce the peak load on our healthcare system, and thus gave time to build on our capacity
2. Assess the impact of migrant labourers travelling back to their places of origin in May and June
1. Potential impact of the lockdown measures - did it help reduce the peak load on our healthcare system, and thus gave time to build on our capacity
2. Assess the impact of migrant labourers travelling back to their places of origin in May and June
The following conclusions have emerged about the course of the pandemic:
a) With no #lockdown, the #pandemic would have hit India very hard, with a peak load of 140+ lakh cases arriving in June.
a) With no #lockdown, the #pandemic would have hit India very hard, with a peak load of 140+ lakh cases arriving in June.
b) Had India waited until May to impose the lockdown, the peak load of active cases would have been around 50 lakhs by June.
In view of this and the scenarios analysed, as well as the upcoming festival season the committee strongly recommends that:
a) The existing personal safety protocols need to continue in full measure. Otherwise, we may see a sharp rise in infections.
a) The existing personal safety protocols need to continue in full measure. Otherwise, we may see a sharp rise in infections.
b) Fresh lock downs may not be imposed on a district and statewide levels unless there is imminent danger of the healthcare facilities being overwhelmed.
c) In actuality, the peak of active cases came in late September at around 10 lakhs.
c) In actuality, the peak of active cases came in late September at around 10 lakhs.
By this time, we were far better equipped to handle the pandemic in terms of diagnostics and vital equipment inventories.
In view of this and the scenarios analysed, as well as the upcoming festival season the committee strongly recommends that:
a) The existing personal safety protocols need to continue in full measure. Otherwise, we may see a sharp rise in infections.
a) The existing personal safety protocols need to continue in full measure. Otherwise, we may see a sharp rise in infections.
b) Fresh lock downs may not be imposed on a district and statewide levels unless there is imminent danger of the healthcare facilities being overwhelmed.
The mathematical model developed by the National Supermodel Committee has been integrated with public domain data from covid19india.org, and users can generate plots and look at predictions at sair.iitgoa.ac.in.
Those interested can read in detail the mathematical model at iith.ac.in/~m_vidyasagar/….
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
