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18 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Good report, but I'm not sure that it does enough to inform readers about the background of the "economists" claiming that the Biden tax plan would be a disaster 1/ nytimes.com/2020/10/18/bus…
They're the same people who made extravagant claims about what the Trump tax cut would accomplish — claims supported by almost no reputable economists. The IGM poll: 2/ igmchicago.org/surveys/tax-re…
In the event, the promised huge surge in business investment completely failed to materialize 3/ calculatedriskblog.com/2020/08/the-fa…
Chart 4/
Aha. Forgot that the Tax Foundation, which predicts disaster from Biden's tax plan, didn't just predict great things from the Trump tax cut; it also predicted disaster from Obama's 2013 tax hike 5/ taxfoundation.org/simulating-eco…

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More from @paulkrugman

Paul Krugman Profile picture
14 Oct
What should economists work on? What kind of work should be honored? Branko has some intriguing thoughts, some — but not all of which — I agree with 1/
He's right that economics should be trying to answer the big questions. On the other hand, research should focus on questions it can actually answer. Raymond Chandler in "The simple art of murder": 2/
PS, "other things being equal" — Chandler sounding like an economist! Anyway, something to be said for not biting off more than anyone knows how to chew 3/
Read 7 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
14 Oct
This analysis got somewhat lost in the shuffle, but Charles Koch is going big for Barrett — not bc he hopes she'll destroy Roe or the ACA, but because he hopes she'll destroy the planet 1/nytimes.com/2020/10/12/opi…
That is, the most consequential effects of a stolen R court majority may not be on health care or right to choose — important as they are — but on gutting environmental policy. And the survival of civilization seems to me more important than imaginary norms 2/
A further thought. My guess is that if Ds take both the WH and the Senate, the stolen court won't overturn Roe or the ACA, which it knows would lead to quick court expansion. Instead, it will save its ammunition so it can engage in sustained sabotage of environmental policy 3/
Read 4 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
13 Oct
I'm fascinated by the way Trump keeps citing the stock market as proof of how well he's doing. Aside from the fact that it's a terrible indicator of the economy at large, I do not think this market means what he thinks it means 1/
The recent market rise has taken place mainly since the first presidential debate 2/
You know what else has happened since that debate? Biden's lead seems to have expanded by about 3 points, possibly putting him in landslide territory 3/
Read 8 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
12 Oct
As I and others often say, the stock market is not the economy. It never was. But it may be even less the economy than it used to be, according to a new paper by Schlingemann and Stulz 1/ nber.org/papers/w27942?…
They show that there's a declining correlation between a firm's share of employment and its share of stock market value 2/
Case in point: in the 1950s the biggest market cap was either AT&T or GM, which were also the top 2 employers. In 2019 it was Apple, which was only the #40 employer. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
9 Oct
Trump hasn't even been defeated yet, but he's lashing out like a vindictive man with nothing to lose. This will only get worse as the election approaches, and will be a nightmare during the lame duck 1/ nytimes.com/2020/10/08/opi…
One thing I didn't say in the op-ed is that a post-election Trump won't be like a normal ex-president, who can go on the speaking circuit, have somebody ghost-write his memoirs, and generally kick back a bit 2/
Instead, he — and his family — probably face personal financial ruin if they lose the shield of office and the flow of income to Trump properties. Given the rampant corruption of his administration, many of those around him probably face prosecution 3/
Read 4 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
8 Oct
Republicans take policy positions so toxic that voters refuse to believe that they're actually espousing them 1/ vox.com/21502189/preex…
Matt Yglesias quotes a very old column of mine on the same phenomenon after 9/11 2/ nytimes.com/2001/12/21/opi…
Here's the money graf 3/
Read 4 tweets

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