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19 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Sweden is set to unveil a set of tough new regulations amid growing COVID-19 cases

businessinsider.com.au/sweden-shifts-…
Depressingly, there is little evidence that the pre-existing immunity from the first wave has substantially dampened viral spread, despite earlier hopes
Worth noting that Tegnell himself predicted that Sweden would reach "herd immunity" by mid-May originally, until serology studies proved that this was wrong
Worth noting

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More from @GidMK

Health Nerd Profile picture
20 Oct
Calling government action on COVID-19 "Health fascism" - a good start to what I'm sure will be a measured, balanced piece Image
Hm well I guess if the Human Rights Commission doesn't care about human rights during COVID-19 that would be a proble-oh, wait ImageImageImage
Moving on we have...oh, some classic denialist tropes. That's not ideal

We're now numerically above the death toll of any pandemic since 1918, and the "survival rates" give your average 60 year old a 1 in 200 risk of dying Image
Read 5 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
18 Oct
People have been asking me to debunk this thread "proving" that COVID-19 deaths are false positives by correlating things, but instead I thought I'd simply list a few things that are more well correlated than this
US spending on science, and suicides by hanging/strangulation/suffocation

99.97%

"Biology just isn't like that"
Divorce in Maine, consumption of margarine

99.26%

"Biology just isn't like that"
Read 8 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
15 Oct
Something that I think is worth explaining:

The term "herd immunity" has a few different meanings, all of which are quite precise. This is an important point
In a very strict mathematical sense, herd immunity is the slowing of disease spread due to sufficient infected people in a population (such that Rt<1)
This leads to the second definition, which is the ability to calculate immunity within a population based on dynamics of disease spread
Read 9 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
14 Oct
John Ioannidis, of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame, has now had his paper on IFR published

Let's do one, final, twitter peer-review on the study 1/n
2/n You can find the study here
who.int/bulletin/onlin…

And my previous threads on it here


3/n I should say at the outset here - the only personal comment I would like to make about Professor Ioannidis is that he is a very smart man who I respect tremendously

I will, however, examine the paper, because I think that is what science is all about
Read 39 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
13 Oct
Imagine if someone was to say "COVID-19 hasn't caused most businesses to close, they were all doing badly anyway"
"Lots of businesses close every year, how do we know that they didn't just close WITH COVID-19 rather than FROM it?"
"All this economic impact is overblown. My friend's cousin's third ex-wife lost her business, but it was in the red anyway"
Read 6 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
12 Oct
Have lockdowns been bad for the economy?

A new report from the International Monetary Fund has a very interesting answer to the question 1/n
2/n The report is here, and well worth reading. At the outset I should say that ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE IS UNCERTAIN

The IMF is great, and has tried very hard to be accurate, but it is important to take care when reading these findings imf.org/en/Publication…
3/n The basic summation is simple:

- lockdowns probably cause economic harm
- large outbreaks of COVID-19 also cause harm
- it is hard to disentangle this complexity
- there are almost certainly situations in which lockdowns are beneficial to the economy
Read 18 tweets

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