In this whole episode, the least discussed is our staying out of RCEP, BRI

Lets examine and see where we stand on a strategic, operational and tactical perspective now and what should be our next steps. What have we done well and where we need to improve a lot. Here goes

1/n
RCEP and BRI are two major Chinese initiatives to build a Chinese Economic and Military Power hegemony. The first is economic, trade control and the second is physical control of roads, commerce. This is basically East India Company 2.0 for 21st Century

India staying out

2/n
has angered China because it poses a serious threat (if we ever get our act right) to their hegemony plans. GOI has shown great wisdom in not joining 👏

Their 'invasion' is to teach us a lesson and ensure world knows that messing with Company Sarkar has consequences

3/n
Finger 4, Depsang, SSN China Pak collusion, DSDBO threat from multiple axis are all important by themselves but the greater imperative is to teach bloody Indians a lesson so that Vietnam, Philippines, Myanmar, Japan all toe the line

All good but there is a big flaw here

4/n
When someone defies mafia or company sarkar they have to be physically beaten up. And if they respond then you have to be ready to fight. This is where Xi goofed up. Some chap called Sun Zu wanted to win without fighting and did not cater for people who had willingness

5/n
and क्षमता to fight ! So what do you do ? You try to sap their will to fight through proxies like @PravinSawhney who does not know Mike (M) about military spewing nonsense, and you carry on your salami slicing to project a victory to world

How has that worked out for Xi ?

6/n
He is currently holding Y junction in Depsang thereby stopping our access to about 80-100 sq km of territory. He is also holding F4-F8

We hold heights opposite Spangur Gap and entire Kailash range thereby endangering his positions on F4-F8 and blocking breakout from

7/n
Spangur that can threaten entire DSDBO road

Its advantage us even though they are in effect holding some territory

This could have been much worse but for the #GalwanBraves. They saved the day for us. Chinese had every intention of rolling down Galwan n threatening DSDBO

8/n
We were trapped (lets be honest) in the shackles of the various 'Peace and Tranquility' pacts and our 'Patrolling = Control' mindset. But these braves changed everything. The nation woke up and govt, army started realising the futility of playing by Chinese rules

Now what ?

9/n
The main strategic goal of Xi is to humiliate India publically - company sarkar/mafia need to show their strength. If we defeat that comprehensively we win. Else staying out of RCEP and BRI will be futile

What is Chinas main aim - to win without fighting

10/n
So we must never allow that and also show world that China lost

How ?

1 Hold onto Kailash heights at all costs regardless of weather difficulty
2 Take some more territory as negotiating chips for F4-F8 and Depsang
3 Drop mindset of patrolling = domination. We need to hold

11/n
4 Don't brush #GalwanBraves victory under carpet to give Xi a way out. Company Sarkar will come back again n ground you into dust if you do. Humiliate China by telling world how r braves smashed their ambush , killed 80 + of theirs. World needs to know China can be beaten

12/n
and that we beat them. This is CRUCIAL

This is tactial victory is key to the strategic victory

We are being too keen to find a way out, negotiate etc. We need to get out of this mindset. If we can do that we will have defeated Xi

n/n

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More from @Ak5985965

18 Oct
Shawney, you have NO clue about military dynamics. You spent YO days as partying in peace postings n later as ADC to Govnr. You have no idea of war fighting, ratios, tactics, op art. We are in far superior position to Pak + have an edge over China. I explain...

@KanwalSibal

1/n
Pak has 19 Armd, Mech, Inf Divs plus FCNA plus 3 Arty Divs. Of these they need to keep atleast 4 Divs oriented towards Iran and another 2-3 for internal pacification including in Balochistan. The majority of their forces are in Pakjab -13 Divs. Pak is split East-West by

2/n
Indus. But Pakjab is split North West by Jhelum, Ravi, Chenab, Sutlej. Why is this important ?

Because we can trap majority of Pak Forces in Pakjab by smashing bridges on Pakjab rivers + hinder East West movement by smashing bridges on Indus

One look at a map shows this

3/n
Read 16 tweets
12 Sep
My views :

1. Dominating Spangur is critical to deny Chinese break out with mech formations via Spangur Gap. We cannot vacate our newly occupied positions unless Chinese retreat all the way back to Xinjiang and Tibet

2. Our positions on North Bank ridges also necessary

1/n
till Chinese completely vacate F4-F8 .Also imp to deny link up with Gogra

3. I don't see Chinese going back and it seems we are trying very hard to avoid any kinetic action and certainly war

4. Therefore we will have to maintain our positions + keep reinforcements in place

2/n
till such time Chinese fully withdraw

5. You are right. Significant defence budget increase for all 3 services is critical. If not now, war will happen in 5-10 years. That is Chinese plan and declared 'war zone' concept - attack adversaries one by one. We are 100% next

3/n
Read 6 tweets
10 Sep
Let's look at your coercion capabilities n record

1. 15/16 June - #Galwan you changed troops, occupied high ground on a narrow pass, equipped yourselves with lethal weapons and launched an ambush on an unarmed party lead by Col Santosh Babu. He had come to negotiate....

1/n
Result - our troops snatched your weapons and launched a bayonet charge. We KIA 45-100 of your men, captured many officers. You know well that your men were shrieking with fear - so called shock troops

Ambush time, place, weapons of your choosing and yet you lost...badly

2/n
2. Spangur 29/30 Aug - Your troops tried to take heights around Spangur but our troops outran them and took the heights not only around Spangur but right up to Rezangla - 30 km frontage. Your entire position in Chushul has been made untebable. You were thinking you would..

3/n
Read 15 tweets
8 Sep
So

1. We are on LAC heights (our perception 😉)
2. Chinese tps under pressure to dislodge but old
baseball bat drill won't work. They will need big numbers and will have to asslt with wpns. Local commanders have probably not relayed full situation to top

#Ladakh

contd..

1/n
They may be purged if they tell Xi full extent of the problem

3. Warning shots are normally fired when en approaches defender. The attacker usually does not fire ''warning'' shots. We fired on 29/30th Aug to dissuade Chinese attackers

4. But we say China fired. Perfect 👏

2/n
thats exactly how we should play this game. But for analysis of China's options, lets accept Chinese claim that India fired. China says their tps then stabilised the situation

Kaise bhai ? By disenaging ?

Put yourself in Chinese commander's shoes. What are his options

3/n
Read 6 tweets
1 Sep
Reports from credible journalists like @nitingokhale confirm that our tps have not crossed the #LAC but have occupied heights to secure the Spangur Gap on our side of LAC. This is a very significant move. Here is why :

1. The Spangur gap is at western extremity of Spangur

1/n
lake, less than 10 km from DSDBO road n about 8 km from Chushul air strip. It is a mountain pass about 2-3 km width n flat tank country. Chinese Armoured thrust from here can go to airstrip n DSDBO road very quickly. Conversely, our mech forces can punch through across LAC

2/n
2. We can dominate North bank of Pangong Hso (F4-F8) by fire from the South Bank. However if Chinese come through Spangur gap they can threaten flanks of the forces on South Bank

Thats why Chinese want Spangur. My y'day thread on their intentions

3/n
Read 8 tweets
17 Aug
Help India out ? We don't need your help. You need ours. Let me show you why :

We were the only country that did not attend the BRI meeting in 2019. And of course we refused to be part of CPEC. Why ? Because it does not add any value to us or to anyone else

1/n
Your ability to complete these projects is under serious doubt. Making cheap shirts by millions is one thing, managing a complex multi year project involving many countries is quite another. Needs humility, wisdom, openness, character - attributes you haven't demonstrated

2/n
The cancer of communism and #Xitler has destroyed any civilisational strengths you might have had. In that scenario, why should we join these projects which are bound to fail ? Which communist regime has ever delivered on such ambitious projects - without collapsing ?

3/n
Read 11 tweets

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