It may sound geeky stuff but the current debate around the usability of banks' capital buffer is maybe one of the most important macro debate currently- with very concrete and far reaching consequences
It's not a coincidence that recently the BoE, the ECB, the BIS, all the big shots have written extensively about it. It's also a fascinating debate about central planning vs. individual behaviours, collective vs. individual targets, the role (or absence of) of risk in econ models
Credibility of a central bank on non monetary policy matters, etc.

Really if you have time and are interested in macro stuff, have a look at it.

Of course the mainstream view (of CB) is that buffers should be used and banks "forced" to lend - based on toy models
But I suspect those models view a zero dividend policy forever as the optimal outcome for bank capital so you should take them with a full barrel of salt!

Anyway, this debate will have extremely practical consequences for investors - probably next November - so stay tuned !
And always remember rule 101 of markets macro: no one gives a s*** what's right or wrong, all you should care about is what the central banks believe !

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More from @jeuasommenulle

21 Oct
Something weird is happening on Metro Bank. They just announced a 20.2% capital + MREL ratio, which is below requirement but we kind of knew they would be below requirements.

So that's not what is odd. The CET1 capital ratio is much more intriguing. Quick thread
They did not disclose their Q3 CET1 ratio. But in Q2 their MREL ratio was 21.3% so it went down 110bps. Afaik there was no repayment of Tier 2 or SNP debt (I wish!) and RWAs are fairly stable. So the only logical conclusion is that CET1 went down 110bps QoQ - would be a big drop
How is it possible? It would imply a big loss. Always possible, but in only one Q? And not mentioning it in the trading update, which only says that "The macroeconomic scenarios applied to the measurement of ECL at H1 remain appropriate", would be reckless.

The mystery deepens.
Read 6 tweets
7 Oct
European Banks still need to book 220bn€ in loan losses for the Covid crisis.

(Disclaimer: this is just my estimate, I could be totally wrong, read what follows at your own risk.)

How do I get to that number? A thread.
A key reminder: banks book loans in 3 Stages. S1 is when all is good, S2 is when things start to deteriorate and S3 is when a loan is impaired (or NPL). Starting from this, when we try to understand what’s going on with Covid in banks’ book, we face three main problems:
Problem 1: there is a massive use of payment holidays, which means we don’t really know if a company is in default. Here’s a recent chart from MS on the extent of the payment holidays issue. Image
Read 38 tweets
23 Sep
Gem from @muddywatersre latest report on #NNOX

"Question 3: How Can NNOX Claim All-In-One Imaging?
In an interview, Ran Poliakine asserted that “because it’s digital, it’s multispectral."

At what point do we go after banks for doing IPOs based on such bullshit!?
The lack of scientific culture is terrible and very costly. Banks involved in such deals should be forced to have genuine independent scientific experts.
The verification process should not only be a legal box ticking exercise using safe harbour rules to protect any absurd forecast; it should involve a scientific backup of any such claims.
Read 4 tweets
22 Sep
I am still trying to make sense of the #FinCEN files & believe me it’s not easy. Yesterday I tweeted abt some specific stories I could find, & so far I haven’t changed my mind: apart maybe from the details on the DB Mirror trades, I don’t see anything significant *and* new.
But what about the actual files, now? Unfortunately, ICIJ only published 4508 items, 35bn$, so around 2% of the total. We’re missing a big chunk (not sure why, tbh. ICIJ says it’s because the rest has not enough details.) Let’s assume it’s representative – what does it tell us?
First obvious question: where is money going to and from where? Let’s chart the countries with more than 5% of the transactions.
Read 33 tweets
21 Sep
I've barely seen any reporting on it but there was an extremely important hearing at the ECJ today on the application of the working time directive to the Army. Believe it or not this could have substantial implications...even on.... QE and the ECB's asset purchases! How so ?
I hope you're intrigued!
Because France is one of the countries arguing that the WTD does not apply. And one argument made is that the free organisation of the army is a core constitutional principle; I.e. one that would even trump the EU treaty (whatever the ECJ's view)
Read 6 tweets
21 Sep
HSBC AT1 investors are not too happy about the risk of seeing the bank flagged as an "unreliable entity" by the Chinese authorities. Arguably, this move in AT1 is much more significant than the equity move (which happens in a sea of red anyway)
(& now, this isn't about #FinCEN)
& no*, sorry!
For those unfamiliar with the concept, what is it ?
It's a list Chinese authorities are said to be preparing which should stop companies on the list from engaging in import or export with china 1/2
Read 4 tweets

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