Thread by @NashSGC

Some future gazing on #Brexit. Two possible scenarios under consideration...

1. We get a deal before the end of the transition. It's thin for goods, with the benefits broadly limited to zero tariffs, at least on paper if not always in practice (see rules of origin &#automotive), & largely nonexistent for services.

The new world of trading on an FTA comes with considerable new cost that sends some businesses to the wall, and new friction that will cause significant disruption in some places (see Kent), but none in others.

Despite the evident cost, business, so relieved to have avoided no deal, will hold their tongue. But, political discontent will rumble on under the surface, with the ERG continuing to agitate for the WA to be scrapped, as well as the new FTA.

Con division over Europe will continue, but in a new form, acting as a disruptive force behind the scenes, before rearing its head in the run up to the next election, when N. Ire is asked to consent to the Protocol in 2024 & when the Con elect a new leader. #Brexit won't go away.

2. We don't get a deal this year. The immediate (i.e. in the first two to four wks) shock won't be dissimilar to the thin deal scenario (border disruption etc), but tariffs will have devastating consequences as their impact surges through the econ throughout 2021 and beyond.

Many businesses won't survive. Despite this, govt. won't run back to the negotiating table, preferring instead to stir patriotic "Blitz spirit", in response to the harm it will claim the EU has inflicted on the UK.

Even a landslide victory for the SNP in Scottish elections will not prompt a change of approach, as stubborn pride drives decision making. Instead, fuel will simply be added to the nationalist fire.

The ERGers, delighted that no deal has been agreed, will feel emboldened in their push to scrap the WA. They will continue to agitate & play a disruptive role within the Conservative party.

On the other side of the spectrum, space will open up for Labour to argue that the Conservatives had a chance to deliver Brexit with a deal, as they had promised to do, and they blew it.

Labour will eventually ask the electorate to trust them to repair the damage and deliver the Brexit that was promised in 2016, i.e. Brexit, with a trade deal that secures the economic benefits of EU membership.

Come the next election, our relationship with the EU will still be a significant issue. The Cons will advocate still living in a no-deal world. Lab will promise to deliver the #Brexit that they was actually offered in 2016.

Irrespective of the result, Brexit won't go away.