Thread by @NashSGC

Some future gazing regarding #Brexit. Two possible scenarios for consideration, and under both, Brexit just doesn’t go away.

1.We get a deal this year. It's thin for goods, with the benefits broadly limited to zero tariffs, at least on paper if not always in practice (see rules of origin & #automotive), & largely non-existent for services.

This new FTA world comes with considerable new cost that sends some businesses to the wall, and new friction that will cause significant disruption in some places (see Kent), but not everywhere.

Despite the evident cost, business, so relieved to have avoided no deal, hold their tongue, & focus on COVID & survival. But, political discontent will rumble on under the surface, with the ERG continuing to agitate for the WA to be scrapped, as well as the new FTA.

Con division over Europe continues, but in this new anti-WA, anti-FTA form. It remains a disruptive force behind the scenes, & rears it head in 2024 in the run up to the election & NI’s consent vote on the Protocol, & when Con elect a new leader. #Brexit doesn’t go away.

2.We don't get a deal. The immediate (i.e.first two to four wks) shock aren't be dissimilar to the thin deal scenario (border disruption etc), but tariffs will have devastating consequences as their impact surges through the econ throughout 2021 and beyond.

Many businesses collapse. Despite this, govt. won't run back to the negotiating table, preferring to stir patriotic "Blitz spirit" instead, in response to the harm it will claim the EU has inflicted on the UK.

Even a landslide victory for the SNP in Scottish elections, driven in part by anger at Sco being left with no treaty based relationship with the EU thanks to decisions made in London, will not prompt a change of approach.

Instead, stubborn pride will drive decision making in Westminster, and fuel will be added to the nationalist fire.

The ERGers, delighted that no deal has been agreed, will feel emboldened in their push to scrap the WA. They will continue to agitate & play a disruptive role within the Conservative party by keeping the Europe issue live.

On the other side of the spectrum, space will open up for Labour to argue that the Conservatives had a chance to deliver #Brexit with a deal, as they had promised to do, and they blew it.

Labour will eventually ask the electorate to trust them to repair the damage & deliver the #Brexit that was promised in 2016, i.e. Brexit, with a trade deal that secures the economic benefits of EU membership.

Come the 2024 election, our relationship with the EU will still be a significant campaign issue. The Cons will argue that the UK must battle through the consequences of no-deal, show grit & determination, & not humiliate itself by returning to the negotiations table with the EU.

Lab will argue that the devastating econ & political cost of no-deal demonstrates that Cons cannot be trusted with the future of the country. Lab will...

...promise to repair the country by delivering a form or #Brexit that has majority support in all four nations, the soft Brexit that was promised in 2016, with the UK in the single market, and possibly the customs union too.

Having recognised that this form of #Brexit removes the complication of the Protocol, & undercuts a tenant of the SNPs indy push (leave the UK to get the econ benefits of the EU again), Lab will feel confident that this approach can be sold as part of an effort to heal the Union.

And after four yrs of no-deal, they will view the economic arguments as a no brainer, particularly in manufacturing heartlands that they lost in '19, but will have taken a kicking from tariffs.

So whatever happens in the coming weeks, #Brexit is not going away.