Pleasure to join #GrandChallengesAnnualMeeting2020 thank you @drpennyheaton for the introduction. Quick summary.
People will be writing,discussing,considering COVID19 in 100yrs as we discuss pandemic 1918 now. We are living through history as it is being made. When read history books can seem romantic. It never is. It is tragic, confused,trade offs,painful,difficult & frightening. As now.
This is the reality of COVID19 & will continue to be so. Focus on the drivers and perspective from the last 20 years.
We have had multiple warnings from Nipah in 1999 to SARS-1, H5N1, Ebola, MERS, Zika, Chik, H1N1 & others. Many common drivers-Ecological change, changes in human:animal interactions, urbanisation, travel & trade. And in times of neglect of public health & geopolitical tensions.
These are & will remain common in the 21stC hence these challenges have and will be more frequent, more complex & inter-related.
Such challenges impact across four concentric circles - 1) Direct Health consequences. 2) All other health concerns. 3) Inequality, Jobs, Livelihoods, Trust, Economies, trust between governed & the governing. Amplifying fault lines in all societies. wellcome.org/news/our-respo…
Need to understand & address all these drivers and the consequences, not just the symptoms.
I believe that means 1) Investment prior to crisis contributes to capacity to prevent, prepare & respond. A shift from efficiency to resilience 2) Partnerships matter, partnerships forged over years, inclusive & equitable and providing value & benefits before a crisis.
3) Multilateralism matters, will & can deliver. We have looked into the abyss of nationalism, & chose another path. 4) Global & national institutions, well governed, transparent & trusted - matter. We need to challenge them yes, but also protect & value them.
5) Science matters but has to be broader,inclusive, transparent. How we do things matters as much as what we do. Research culture & environment matters.6)Science does not exist in a vacuum, it is sustained by communities & society it must be an integral part of not detached from.
7) Science is part of political discourse and cannot be isolated from it. That can be a difficult. Pay tribute to all those who have stood up & be counted, arguing for truth, transparency, equity despite often personal cost & as some suffered threats & public vilification.
Science has rarely been so in public eye for good & bad. Must acknowledge what science can do & what its limitations are. Humility is a central part of science. This will be true as we come thru current crisis & science will need to look critically at itself & be challenged
8) Crisis has also shown what progress can be made by breaking down barriers, thru open sharing data & results, across borders & specialities. It is possible to disrupt traditional methods & not cut corners.We can speed up science,R&D, innovation & access. We can catalyse change.
9) I remember the Grand Challenges meeting in London Oct 2016, just before another US election. To all American friends & colleagues, think of course of USA when you vote, but also think of Americas & your role in the world.
10) The world is better, we are all better for an engaged, committed, creative USA, for your leadership, your generosity and your partnership. In recent years that has been harder, we have missed you & look forward to a new dawn.
Finally, thank you to all colleagues & friends @gatesfoundation, Bill, Melinda, Trevor, Chris K, Penny, Kedest, Lynda, Mark, Chris E & many more. We value our great colleagues & a great partnership with you. Thank you for bringing us together #GrandChallengesAnnualMeeting2020
And a huge thank you to all the technical teams that made this virtual #GrandChallengesAnnualMeeting2020 possible. With you, it would not have been possible. Thank you. Look forward to Boston2021.

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More from @JeremyFarrar

21 Oct
Honoured to join ⁦@WorldBank⁩ ⁦@WHO⁩, countries & partners in support of @ACT-A for: Health Systems, PPE, Oxygen, HCW, Diagnostics, Treatment & Vaccines. We need all of these, we need them all globally. Equitable & Fair Access.
Summary comments: Credit @WorldBank @WHO for leadership. At a time when some questioned value,impact & contribution of multilateral approach ACT-A can be example of benefit such an approach to equitable & fair access to essential tools. Concrete actions not just in the abstract.
Must remember that there is no magic bullet, we need all the tools in ACT-A. A broad holistic approach, through @ACT-A for: Health Systems, PPE, Oxygen, HCW, Diagnostics, Treatment & Vaccines.
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
Thanks for invitation @BBCRadio4 World Tonight.
No easy choices in the UK now, every choice has very significant negative consequences. But delay before implementation is a decisions in itself & will make later interventions harder & need to be deeper & in place for longer.
Naively would be great if can avoid turning this into party political issue - this is a national crisis & will need a national solution.Every country that has managed well so far has done so on the basis of a national approach & consensus, trust, local ownership & broad agreement
The latest government plans are an attempt to compromise between health and the economy but may end up damaging both.
Read 13 tweets
10 Oct
Plan Continuation bias (PCB) - playing a role in COVID19? Lessons from aviation industry. A fancy name for “get-there-itis”. PCB which is an unconscious cognitive bias to continue the original plan in spite of changing conditions — & it can be deadly for general aviation pilots
Plan continuation bias was identified in a NASA Ames human factors study from 2004 which analyzed 19 airline accidents from 1991 to 2000 that were attributed to crew error. Out of those, almost half involved plan continuation bias. humansystems.arc.nasa.gov/flightcognitio…
Problem is in how it manifests. Study offered it becomes stronger as you near completion of the activity (e.g., approach your destination). It essentially impedes pilots from recognizing that they need to change course of action & because it’s unconscious,it often goes undetected
Read 10 tweets
9 Oct
The tragedy is how predictable this has been since at least early July. It was not inevitable. It is not inevitable now that this worsens, but to avoid spiralling out of control needs to be action now. We are close to or at events & choices of 13-23 March.
theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
More data always useful, but don't try & bring more precision to public health interventions than a highly complex system allows. If strategy is to reduce r<1, transmission, hospitalisations,deaths,pressure NHS directly & indirectly it will need package of interventions now.
We are back to choices faced in the early March. With the lag time between making a decision, its implementation & its effect measured in weeks the longer the decisions are delayed the harder & more draconian are the interventions needed to change trajectory of epidemic curve.
Read 5 tweets
6 Oct
Latest data-COVID UK.Tough political decisions to be made. But data is clear. Community transmission increasing. Number people needing hospitalisation increasing. Tragically more people dying. Options for interventions might be debated but data is clear.
theguardian.com/uk
UK is on an epidemic path. The epidemic will continue to expand under the current restrictions. A choice we face. Need to be honest about the implications for the choices that are made. wellcome.org/news/covid-19-…
Some questioned the data & comments from @uksciencechief & @CMO_England on 21st September. Two weeks on, their comments were spot on.
standard.co.uk/news/uk/whitty…
Read 7 tweets
6 Oct
Great pleasure to join the @isirvAVG Therapeutics Meeting.
Thank you to Alan Hay & Fred Hayden & Organising Committee.
isirv.org/site/images/co…
1) Critical need for therapeutics for COVID19 in prevention, treatment & to halt progression of illness. Understandable focus globally on vaccines but even when we have vaccines we will still need therapeutics (& Diagnostics & Health Systems to make them available).
Always good to remember that for many infectious diseases we do not have vaccines despite many years of great effort & we know therapeutics can play critical role in reducing transmission, burden disease & save lives - HIV, TB, Malaria, Dengue & many others.
Read 18 tweets

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