Thread by @eggersnsf

5256 new #Covid19 cases today, test positivity 20%. Could this situation have been prevented?
Time to look back at the recommendations of the @SwissScience_TF.

A few quotes from key policy briefs follow below (a thread):
All policy briefs available here: ncs-tf.ch/de/policy-brie…

A key policy brief of the @SwissScience_TF is the one published on 11 April 2020 with the title “Proposals for a transition strategy”. It details criteria for lifting measures:

“..., the relaxing of control measures can be justified only if the effective basic reproduction number Re is substantially smaller than 1 (<0.7) with sufficient statistical certainty.”

Unfortunately, most measures were lifted end of June, when Re was around 1, with uncertainty

From the same policy brief:

“Measures must be tightened immediately if Re becomes larger than 1 with sufficient statistical certainty.”
This was repeatedly the case in July, as shown in the graph.

Unfortunately, no measures were taken

In an ALERT published in July in German (see ncs-tf.ch/de/policy-brie…) the @SwissScience_TF wrote:

“SARS-CoV-2 infections are currently increasing at an alarming rate in Switzerland."

And:

"The @SwissScience_TF makes urgent recommendations for immediate measures for the population, organisations and authorities. … Immediate action is essential to prevent major damage to health, society and the economy.”

A few days earlier, end of June, the @SwissScience_TF published its “Strategy to react to substantial increases in the numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Switzerland.” See ncs-tf.ch/de/policy-brie…
We argued that:

“The essence of the surveillance-response approach is to introduce the response early enough to avoid a second epidemic wave. When measures are introduced too late, this can result in increased difficulties to control the epidemic.”

And:

“Increasing case numbers mean that we are facing an exponentially growing problem. Once case numbers start to increase, they will continue doing so until an intervention (or changed behavior of the population) stops them."

And:

"Without intervention, the number of infections will increase to levels where the impacts on health and the economy are massive.”

Case numbers increased at a low exponential rate throughout the summer and reached about 500 cases per day in September. See graph.

In summary:

Unfortunately, measures were lifted at once end of June, and no measures were re-introduced in July, August or September. In this way, the opportunity to prevent what followed in October was sadly missed.

I meant to say repeatedly the case in June, July, and August. And of course September