Tweet

David Montgomery

22 Oct, 12 tweets, 6 min read

20 more #COVID19 deaths today in Minnesota, on top of yesterday’s record 35 — a sad sign that yesterday wasn’t a fluke. The 7-day trend continues to rise.

13 of today’s 20 #COVID19 deaths were in long-term care facilities. The blue line in this chart is doing scary things right now:

#COVID19 deaths are up everywhere in the state except for the 5 suburban counties:

Meanwhile new cases shot back up today. Part of this was driven by testing, which also rebounded; the average positivity rate held steady at 6.5% (it was 4.5% in early October):

The number of new active, confirmed #COVID19 cases in MN continues to rise:

New hospital #COVID19 admissions continue to trend upward. Current weekly average of 82/day, a record:

Minnesota’s new #COVID19 cases continue to be a predominantly rural phenomenon, though new cases are up everywhere:

Getting more granular, cases are highest in the western portions of the state — along the border with the Dakotas:

Hispanic Minnesotans continue to see the highest rates of #COVID19 cases, but cases are also rising dramatically among Native Americans.

The county-based positivity rate is highest in northwest Minnesota. Red Lake County might be a small sample size artifact, but the whole region is definitely seeing some serious spread.

@mnhealth

I finally got around to extracting weekly county test data from the PDF prisons @mnhealth put them in. Here’s positivity rate by Minnesota region. (A bit more jagged than my other similar charts, since we only have weekly data for this metric, not daily.)

@mnhealth

@mnhealth And here’s a more granular version of positivity rate by county. The outbreak is weakest in southeast and northeast Minnesota, by far the worst in the northwest.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @dhmontgomery

David Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

21 Oct

Yikes. Minnesota reported 35 new #COVID19 deaths today. That ties the state’s record high, set back on May 28.

25 of these 35 new #COVID19 deaths were among residents of long-term care facilities.

Minnesota’s 7-day trend of newly reported hospital admissions is also at a record high, averaging 80/day over the last week. Previously this had peaked at 78 in late May:

Read 9 tweets

David Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

20 Oct

It’s a Tuesday, which means low reported #COVID19 testing volume due to weekend delays — half what we had just two days ago.

New cases were down, too, but not by nearly so much. More signs that cases are actually growing, rather than being an artifact of expanded testing.

With tests down a lot and cases down a little, the daily positivity rate shot up. Don’t panic quite yet — as you can see, we sometimes get these one-day flukey spikes. But the overall trend was already up here…

The worst sign in today’s data: A record number of newly reported #COVID19 hospital admissions.

Read 7 tweets

David Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

20 Oct

If Biden wins in November, the most interesting thing to me will be the almost inevitable fracturing of his winning coalition. In this scenario, Biden will have been propelled into office by an anti-Trump alliance ranging from center-right to far-left. That’s unsustainable. 1/

2/ To be sure, Biden's core issue is popular across this coalition: not being Donald Trump. But this will *probably* only go so far. At some point, people will want stuff from President Biden. Policies, jobs, etc. — and he won't be able to satisfy everyone.

@mikeduncan

3/ This is a near-universal situation. @mikeduncan calls it the "entropy of victory" — the tendency of victorious rebels to turn on each other after showing the ancien régime the door.

Read 13 tweets

David Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

19 Oct

Mondays typically have relatively low levels of new #COVID19 cases in Minnesota. Today’s case total would have been a *record high* for the state — if not for the prior three days:

And though testing remains robust, it doesn’t explain this case growth. Cases are growing more quickly than tests, and the positivity rate is rising:

Looking by sample date, you can see a weekly pattern. MN was relatively steady in the 600-800 range for months. In late September that went up two weeks in a row, then plateaued for a week, then shot up again. And last Monday (most recent date shown) broke through to a new level.

Read 9 tweets

David Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

18 Oct

Another day of double-digit #COVID19 deaths in Minnesota, leaving the trend line squarely in the mid-teens per day:

Deaths are up over the last few weeks in both long-term-care and non-LTC settings:

#COVID19 deaths are now highest in Greater Minnesota, adjusted for population. That hadn’t happened in Minnesota before the last month — deaths had always been highest in the metro, and especially Hennepin/Ramsey:

Read 7 tweets

David Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

4 Oct

New #COVID19 cases in Minnesota are trending flat — but this flatness comes on increasing test volume, so is actually sort of a good thing. Positivity rate is declining, as are new hospitalizations.

For months, northern Minnesota was largely spared from #COVID19 while the metro suffered.

Today, northern Minnesota is reporting a higher rate of new cases than Hennepin and Ramsey counties ever have. (Expanded testing means this means relatively little. Still striking.)

Northern Minnesota is also currently seeing the state’s highest #COVID19 death rate, though not nearly at the same magnitude as the metro during the nursing home outbreak in May.

Read 7 tweets

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!