If Biden wins in November, the most interesting thing to me will be the almost inevitable fracturing of his winning coalition. In this scenario, Biden will have been propelled into office by an anti-Trump alliance ranging from center-right to far-left. That’s unsustainable. 1/
2/ To be sure, Biden's core issue is popular across this coalition: not being Donald Trump. But this will *probably* only go so far. At some point, people will want stuff from President Biden. Policies, jobs, etc. — and he won't be able to satisfy everyone.
3/ This is a near-universal situation. @mikeduncan calls it the "entropy of victory" — the tendency of victorious rebels to turn on each other after showing the ancien régime the door.
@mikeduncan 4/ Political scientists Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith have noted how the first order of business for new leaders — at least smart ones — is to purge their core supporters down to a more manageable coalition.
@mikeduncan 5/ Progressives are acutely aware of this, and have been maneuvering since the spring to ensure they get as big a piece of the policy pie in a Biden administration as possible, that they're not the ones purged.
@mikeduncan 6/ This may prove necessary for them, because center-left governments often face a strong temptation to side with the center-right over the far-left — the center-right can credibly threaten to ally with the far-right if spurned; the far-left often lacks this leverage.
@mikeduncan 7/ That said, there are some "goods" that Biden could offer that could keep his coalition somewhat united because they aren't constrained or zero-sum. "Not being Trump" in terms of his STYLE of governance is chief among them.
@mikeduncan 8/ But this only matters so long as this coalition feels a continuing threat of a return of Trump (or Trumpism). If this enemy seems vanquished, infighting will follow (whether or not it actually IS vanquished for good).
9/ Skillful political management can also hold an unwieldy coalition together in the short term, especially if everyone feels like a bigger payoff is waiting over the horizon if they hold their fire.
10/ So if Biden is indeed an intentional one-term president, that could give him an opportunity to maintain a "Biden coalition" past its expiration date, if he’s both good and lucky. Why go to war in 2021 when 2024 is so close?
11/ This is by no means a sure thing, though. The inevitable disappointments when Biden goes with one side or another on key policies that divide his coalition will be powerful. The midterms could prove a wedge.
12/ So which way will Biden lean? How aggressive will various members of the coalition be if/when they don’t get their way? To what degree would a post-Trump Republican Party be a refuge for the losers in this internal power struggle? All fascinating questions.
13/ And of course, all this is predicated on the situation where Biden wins comfortably. Other scenarios, from a Trump win to a disputed election to narrow Biden win where Rs keep the Senate, are all very possible, and would each pose different dynamics.
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