Mondays typically have relatively low levels of new #COVID19 cases in Minnesota. Today’s case total would have been a *record high* for the state — if not for the prior three days:
And though testing remains robust, it doesn’t explain this case growth. Cases are growing more quickly than tests, and the positivity rate is rising:
Looking by sample date, you can see a weekly pattern. MN was relatively steady in the 600-800 range for months. In late September that went up two weeks in a row, then plateaued for a week, then shot up again. And last Monday (most recent date shown) broke through to a new level.
Hospitalization data is messy, but at a minimum there are no signs of a significant decline from our recent peak. (ICU bed use may have declined a little.)
MN reported single-digit deaths today, but the long-term trend is still rising:
Newly confirmed #COVID19 cases are rising in every part of the state, but central Minnesota is being particularly hard-hit now:
Not only is central Minnesota seeing more confirmed #COVID19 cases, but it’s seeing a huge spike in deaths. Same for northern Minnesota, to a lesser degree.
Here’s a more granular breakdown of regional trends of #COVID19 cases in Minnesota:
Cases up in every single age group (including the most vulnerable older Minnesotans). While 20-somethings still have the highest case rates, they lead by a smaller margin — you can no longer say, as we could this summer, that the outbreak is concentrated among them.
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It’s a Tuesday, which means low reported #COVID19 testing volume due to weekend delays — half what we had just two days ago.
New cases were down, too, but not by nearly so much. More signs that cases are actually growing, rather than being an artifact of expanded testing.
With tests down a lot and cases down a little, the daily positivity rate shot up. Don’t panic quite yet — as you can see, we sometimes get these one-day flukey spikes. But the overall trend was already up here…
The worst sign in today’s data: A record number of newly reported #COVID19 hospital admissions.
If Biden wins in November, the most interesting thing to me will be the almost inevitable fracturing of his winning coalition. In this scenario, Biden will have been propelled into office by an anti-Trump alliance ranging from center-right to far-left. That’s unsustainable. 1/
2/ To be sure, Biden's core issue is popular across this coalition: not being Donald Trump. But this will *probably* only go so far. At some point, people will want stuff from President Biden. Policies, jobs, etc. — and he won't be able to satisfy everyone.
3/ This is a near-universal situation. @mikeduncan calls it the "entropy of victory" — the tendency of victorious rebels to turn on each other after showing the ancien régime the door.
Another day of double-digit #COVID19 deaths in Minnesota, leaving the trend line squarely in the mid-teens per day:
Deaths are up over the last few weeks in both long-term-care and non-LTC settings:
#COVID19 deaths are now highest in Greater Minnesota, adjusted for population. That hadn’t happened in Minnesota before the last month — deaths had always been highest in the metro, and especially Hennepin/Ramsey:
New #COVID19 cases in Minnesota are trending flat — but this flatness comes on increasing test volume, so is actually sort of a good thing. Positivity rate is declining, as are new hospitalizations.
For months, northern Minnesota was largely spared from #COVID19 while the metro suffered.
Today, northern Minnesota is reporting a higher rate of new cases than Hennepin and Ramsey counties ever have. (Expanded testing means this means relatively little. Still striking.)
Northern Minnesota is also currently seeing the state’s highest #COVID19 death rate, though not nearly at the same magnitude as the metro during the nursing home outbreak in May.
New #COVID19 cases are up today — but so is testing, even more, over 30,000. The positivity rate fell, too. The strongest conclusion is that most of this test “growth” is driven by expanded testing.
New hospitalizations are also down a little bit after soaring recently. You can’t always tell if declines on the left graph (by date of hospitalization) are real or data artifacts, but in the right (bar) graph you can see the drop shows up by report date, too.
Deaths are also trending up. Twice times now since summer, the 7-day average has approached 10 deaths per day, only to promptly decline. We’ll see if that happens again, or keeps rising into double digits.
New #COVID19 cases are up a little bit, but controlling for testing volume, positivity rate in MN is actually trending down. Yes, case counts are way up — but so is testing, which explains a LOT of it.
The testing increase in MN is real and notable. In late April, MN began a sustained rise in testing from an average of about 1,500 per day to nearly 15,000/day by July 4. But then growth slowed a ton, and stayed slow for months.
The last few weeks have finally seen more growth:
New hospitalization rates remain their highest in months, a sign that MN is seeing a real growth of its outbreak, even if not as dramatic as case #s & positivity seem (ignore the little drops at the end of the line — those are data artifacts from reporting delays):