It's interesting to note that most of the feedback I've received about this survey is based on people's personal experience rather than on the problematic methodology of the survey itself (self-reported data, biased samples).
IMO, methodology > anecdote, but to each his own!
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2/ "A big part of a consultant’s job was to feign total certainty about uncertain things.
"In a job interview with McKinsey, they told Morey that he was not certain enough in his opinions. ‘We’re billing clients five hundred grand a year, so you have to be sure.’
3/ "The firm was forever asking him to exhibit confidence when, in his view, confidence was a sign of fraudulence. They’d asked him to forecast oil for clients, for instance.
"What people said when they “predicted” was phony: pretending to know rather than actually knowing.
1/ Building a Better Commodities Portfolio (Kay, Levine, Ooi, Pedersen)
"Investors can potentially build a better commodities portfolio that is risk-balanced across sectors and that targets a steady level of volatility through time."
2/ "Because commodities have exhibited low correlations to stocks and bonds, a portfolio comprised of all three has produced higher risk-adjusted returns than a 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds alone."
3/ "Commodity returns have historically shown a low correlation to other asset classes. Other common inflation protection assets – such as publicly traded REITs, natural resources equities, and TIPS – have shown far higher correlations to either stocks or nominal bonds."
1/ THREAD: Magazine cover predictions, shoeshine boy tips, and other questionable calls
"On Aug 13, 1979, the front cover of Business Week featured a crumpled share certificate in the shape of a crashed paper dart: ‘The Death of Equities.‘ "
2/ "Do we really not care about looming crises (national debt, underfunded pensions/Social Security/health care, student debt), or is it that we feel shackled by our lack of understanding?
"As money continues to become a bigger part of our lives, we understand it less." (p. 2)
3/ "Not too long ago, we didn’t have the advantages the financial world now provides. For example, mortgages weren’t widely available to the general public. If you wanted to buy a house, you had to save up the entire purchase price." (p. 3)
1/ Resurrecting the Value Premium (Blitz, Hanauer)
"We use more powerful value metrics, apply basic risk management, and make more effective use of the breadth of the liquid universe of stocks and conclude that a healthy value premium is still present."
2/ "The big-cap component of HML has been flat on balance since the early 1980s.
"HML has been critically dependent on the efficacy of B/M in the small-cap space. The concern that the HML premium is seriously impaired or may even have disappeared does not seem unreasonable."
3/ "The U.S. post-publication HML value premium is less than 1% per annum with an insignificant t-stat. The big-cap HML component even displays a negative average return.
"The only significant HML performance in Developed-ex-US and Emerging Markets is in the small-cap space."
2/ "These are ideas so ingrained in the collective consciousness that it seems foolhardy to even wonder if they’re potentially untrue. Sometimes these seem like questions only a child would ask, since children aren’t paralyzed by the pressures of consensus and common sense.
3/ "When you ask smart people if there are major ideas that will be proven false, they say, “There must be. That has been experienced by every generation in history.”
"Yet offer a list of contemporary ideas that might fit, and they’ll be tempted to reject them all." (p. 2)