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Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
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24 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Thanks many people for Swiss (& Austrian) Cheese @MackayIM & colleagues. The mouse nibbling away via trust,communication & (mis)information.COVID can be controlled & impact reduced but needs combination clear consistent interventions & policies, personal & shared responsibilities Image
Last 24hrs UK 1056 people admitted hospital COVID19. 868 people admitted hospital COVID 24 March-1103 people admitted 25 March. In October we have better care & much better data. But we are watching a rerun of March-April but with winter fast approaching
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
If the objective is to reduce community transmission, hospitalisations & deaths, pressure on NHS, illness COVID & non-COVID whilst protecting jobs, livelihoods, businesses then we will need to change the interventions currently in place & quickly. news.sky.com/story/sophy-ri…
Health,jobs,livelihoods aligned & not in conflict. It is false choice. Public health/clinical care can support our health & economy support jobs,livelihoods,business. Support health & economy is a choice can make. But on current path UK will drift further to bottom right of graph Image

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More from @JeremyFarrar

Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
21 Oct
Pleasure to join #GrandChallengesAnnualMeeting2020 thank you @drpennyheaton for the introduction. Quick summary.
People will be writing,discussing,considering COVID19 in 100yrs as we discuss pandemic 1918 now. We are living through history as it is being made. When read history books can seem romantic. It never is. It is tragic, confused,trade offs,painful,difficult & frightening. As now.
This is the reality of COVID19 & will continue to be so. Focus on the drivers and perspective from the last 20 years.
Read 17 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
21 Oct
Honoured to join ⁦@WorldBank⁩ ⁦@WHO⁩, countries & partners in support of @ACT-A for: Health Systems, PPE, Oxygen, HCW, Diagnostics, Treatment & Vaccines. We need all of these, we need them all globally. Equitable & Fair Access.
Summary comments: Credit @WorldBank @WHO for leadership. At a time when some questioned value,impact & contribution of multilateral approach ACT-A can be example of benefit such an approach to equitable & fair access to essential tools. Concrete actions not just in the abstract.
Must remember that there is no magic bullet, we need all the tools in ACT-A. A broad holistic approach, through @ACT-A for: Health Systems, PPE, Oxygen, HCW, Diagnostics, Treatment & Vaccines.
Read 5 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
13 Oct
Thanks for invitation @BBCRadio4 World Tonight.
No easy choices in the UK now, every choice has very significant negative consequences. But delay before implementation is a decisions in itself & will make later interventions harder & need to be deeper & in place for longer.
Naively would be great if can avoid turning this into party political issue - this is a national crisis & will need a national solution.Every country that has managed well so far has done so on the basis of a national approach & consensus, trust, local ownership & broad agreement
The latest government plans are an attempt to compromise between health and the economy but may end up damaging both.
Read 13 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
10 Oct
Plan Continuation bias (PCB) - playing a role in COVID19? Lessons from aviation industry. A fancy name for “get-there-itis”. PCB which is an unconscious cognitive bias to continue the original plan in spite of changing conditions — & it can be deadly for general aviation pilots
Plan continuation bias was identified in a NASA Ames human factors study from 2004 which analyzed 19 airline accidents from 1991 to 2000 that were attributed to crew error. Out of those, almost half involved plan continuation bias. humansystems.arc.nasa.gov/flightcognitio…
Problem is in how it manifests. Study offered it becomes stronger as you near completion of the activity (e.g., approach your destination). It essentially impedes pilots from recognizing that they need to change course of action & because it’s unconscious,it often goes undetected
Read 10 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
9 Oct
The tragedy is how predictable this has been since at least early July. It was not inevitable. It is not inevitable now that this worsens, but to avoid spiralling out of control needs to be action now. We are close to or at events & choices of 13-23 March.
theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
More data always useful, but don't try & bring more precision to public health interventions than a highly complex system allows. If strategy is to reduce r<1, transmission, hospitalisations,deaths,pressure NHS directly & indirectly it will need package of interventions now.
We are back to choices faced in the early March. With the lag time between making a decision, its implementation & its effect measured in weeks the longer the decisions are delayed the harder & more draconian are the interventions needed to change trajectory of epidemic curve.
Read 5 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
6 Oct
Latest data-COVID UK.Tough political decisions to be made. But data is clear. Community transmission increasing. Number people needing hospitalisation increasing. Tragically more people dying. Options for interventions might be debated but data is clear.
theguardian.com/uk
UK is on an epidemic path. The epidemic will continue to expand under the current restrictions. A choice we face. Need to be honest about the implications for the choices that are made. wellcome.org/news/covid-19-…
Some questioned the data & comments from @uksciencechief & @CMO_England on 21st September. Two weeks on, their comments were spot on.
standard.co.uk/news/uk/whitty…
Read 7 tweets

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