Yet another day of 20+ newly reported #COVID19 deaths in Minnesota. Until two weeks ago, MN hadn’t had any such days since June. The 7-day average is now up to 16 deaths/day.
Most of these deaths are happening in long-term care facilities, but not all; non-LTC deaths are also up from last month.
Central Minnesota is still reporting the highest per capita death rate from #COVID19:
The last few days, newly reported #COVID19 cases in Minnesota have plateaued at a little over 1,500/day, which is bad, but better than continued growth.
Today’s report saw cases fall a fair bit, while tests fell only a little, so the positivity rate — which had been trending up — dipped a little. (More data needed to see if this is a trend.)
The case growth rate in central MN, which has been off the charts for the past few weeks, has slowed a little bit. The growth rate in northwestern MN continues to skyrocket, as MN’s recent east-west divide on #COVID19 rates continues.
Some data on cases by age and race:
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), I can share some other charts, and the news isn’t good here, either.
New hospitalizations continued to rise, once again to record levels:
The 7-day average of new deaths is also the highest it’s been in 6 months, over 17/day:
Assuming today’s case data is accurate, the rise in cases is still starkest on a per-capita basis in northwestern MN, where the case rate is at record highs. It’s also rising in the suburban counties around Hennepin/Ramsey:
So today’s #COVID19 case data in MN is astonishingly bad — so bad that my first thought is there’s a data issue. I’ve inquired with @mnhealth to see if something’s wrong, and will delete this tweet if it turns out there is.
Short story: cases up, tests down, leading to this:
@mnhealth Here you can see newly reported cases near record levels, while newly reported tests fell to a typical Tuesday low value.
I wonder if some lab only reported their positive tests today, and not their negatives?
@mnhealth There’s not a big backlog of old cases in today’s data:
Recent #COVID19 data suggest’s MN’s recent explosive growth in cases might have hit a plateau. Newly reported cases have averaged just over 1,500/day for a week now. The positivity rate has also flattened out.
No guarantee this will continue, though.
Zooming in, case growth has flattened or begun to decline recently in just about all parts of Minnesota EXCEPT the northwest, where cases continue to rise ceaselessly. (Also maybe the metro suburbs, to a much smaller degree.)
Again, all trends continue until they don’t.
New #COVID19 hospitalizations continue to rise, though. This could mean the plateauing of new cases is an illusion. It could mean the infected population is shifting to more vulnerable groups. Or it could be that hospitalizations are just a trailing indicator.
20 more #COVID19 deaths today in Minnesota, on top of yesterday’s record 35 — a sad sign that yesterday wasn’t a fluke. The 7-day trend continues to rise.
13 of today’s 20 #COVID19 deaths were in long-term care facilities. The blue line in this chart is doing scary things right now:
#COVID19 deaths are up everywhere in the state except for the 5 suburban counties:
Yikes. Minnesota reported 35 new #COVID19 deaths today. That ties the state’s record high, set back on May 28.
25 of these 35 new #COVID19 deaths were among residents of long-term care facilities.
Minnesota’s 7-day trend of newly reported hospital admissions is also at a record high, averaging 80/day over the last week. Previously this had peaked at 78 in late May:
It’s a Tuesday, which means low reported #COVID19 testing volume due to weekend delays — half what we had just two days ago.
New cases were down, too, but not by nearly so much. More signs that cases are actually growing, rather than being an artifact of expanded testing.
With tests down a lot and cases down a little, the daily positivity rate shot up. Don’t panic quite yet — as you can see, we sometimes get these one-day flukey spikes. But the overall trend was already up here…
The worst sign in today’s data: A record number of newly reported #COVID19 hospital admissions.