A common feature of a growing epidemic is that the % of cases detected by surveillance systems typically declines (just as the % detected typically increases as epidemics are brought under control)... 1/
In week ending 24 Sep, ONS estimated around 8,400 new infections per day in England (ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…). And on 24 Sep, the 7-day average for daily reported cases in UK was around 6,800. 2/
By week ending 16 Oct, ONS estimate was around 35,000 new infections per day in England (ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…), with 7-day average for UK cases by 16 Oct at around 18,500. 3/
Level of under-reporting isn't anything like mid-March (where <5% of symptomatic cases were being reported in UK), but above suggests that gap between estimated infections and reported cases is growing, so need to be increasingly cautious about interpreting raw case patterns. 4/
More on early pattens of under-reporting in this analysis with @timwrussell @_NickGolding_ and others, now published in @BMCMedicine bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11… 5/5 
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