Last week, we took a look at new voters over the past month using Pennsylvania's voter export. @James_McGinnis wrote this story on the lead Democrats have across the state bit.ly/3ou6EyO and the map below is one I made last week showing party control by county 1/
I often consider countywide maps like these not quite as informative as I think voter breakdowns should be. You don't really get the nuanced analysis that you'd probably want to see. For instance:
Democrats outnumber Republicans in all of these southeastern Pa. counties. You can get an idea of which counties have the most Democrats, but that's about all you can really get from a countywide heatmap
This map, however, can tell us a lot more about these counties. This map shows us the difference in percentage points between Republican and Democratic voters (each party as a percent of total voters).
Of course, we're talking about a database of registered voters that's just about 9 million strong right now. So, mapping out all of the ~2,560 towns in Pa. is a lot more difficult than mapping out just these 67 counties.
There isn't a uniform naming convention shared across the board by all counties in the voter database. Then the map file I've used has it's own naming convention, which is another major challenge. It would take an insane amount of time and energy to do that.
And I'm a bit insane. This is really just the start of what is going to be a fun election night to cover. I am missing about 13,000 voters across the state in a handful of towns (usually the ones that sit between two counties). The big missing spot over Erie is water btw.
I'm planning a few different twitter data threads. We can look at overall election history, age, registration date. We don't have any racial data in there, but just about any other demographic dimension should be here. What do you want know before or on election day?
I wanted to follow up on @davegilmartin's question about ballots returned from my first data thread this week. He asked about early voting turnout by county and by party. Strap in, we've got to talk about color choice and geospatial data analysis 1/???
Let's start here: here's the overall breakdown of total voters by major parties in each county. The darker the blue, the more democratic voters and vice versa. While GOP voters trail Dems, the margins aren't so far off that we can't use a decent color spectrum.
In the case of this map, I'm subtracting Dems from GOP and setting our range at -25,000 to 25,000 because each party has at least several counties where they lead by that many voters.
1/ A new coronavirus alert app from @PAHealthDept was the focus of today's press conference - you can read about that here - bit.ly/2Ee6zga - but lets go over some of the new case numbers and see what the past couple weeks has looked like in PA and in #BucksCounty
Let's start with the broad overview: 7-day and 14-day average new cases are currently holding fairly steady at about 770 cases as of Monday. That's roughly the same levels the state saw in late May, when new cases were declining after an initial boom
Looking at August alone, it looks like the 7-day average was valleys and peaks in the first two weeks before almost intersecting with the 14-day average that had a much steadier decline over the past two weeks.
1/ All right, this week we looked at some programs @BucksDa and @BucksCountyGovt are looking at to make some changes to how local law enforcement deals with individuals with a mental illness bit.ly/3abvzkd
2/ I wanted to take some time and review some 911 data provided through a series of Right to Know requests to @911BucksCounty. Let's start with some baseline information on the 4.5 million call database of police and EMS calls between 2012 and April 10, 2020
3/ Police make up the bulk of the 911 data, and these are all calls that pass through the radio room. EMS calls only make up about 10% of all calls, but the radio room is also logging everything from traffic stops to homicide investigations.
1/ The spread of the coronavirus in PA seems to be slowing after a recent spike in cases. Let's take a look at how the data has changed in the past week or so bit.ly/2XDJbiV
2/ 7-day and 14-day average cases in the state were steadily dropping through May and most of June after an exponential climb that began in March. July was a setback, however, as cases gradually increased.
3/ Average cases rose from between 500 and 600 cases to just under approximately 1,000 cases until about July 27. bit.ly/30KpXcc
With a surge in new coronavirus cases in Pennsylvania, I wanted to delve into the data a bit more to see how the state went from approaching a new normal to trying to stem a new surge in cases bit.ly/2CK7Zib 1/
First, let's take a brief look at where we're at now in PA, and I'm using data pulled from the Johns Hopkins GitHub Repository. Philadelphia's numbers tend to be a bout 20% higher than on the state's website. As of Sunday, there were 111,115 cases and 7,124 deaths since March 2/
The state Department of Health estimates nearly 75% of cases have recovered, and there's been an increase in cases among younger adults in the weeks since moving to the green phase of the state's reopening plan. Story on that from @JoCiavaglia
here bit.ly/2ZSpfdG 3/
Last week's thread (linked below) looked at mail-in ballot numbers by county and party. I do these threads as an exercise for various data analysis and viz tools, and I wanted to do another one that goes a little deeper into those numbers. bit.ly/2TAB3Or 1/
I'm using tableau for the data viz this time, rather than the Python Matplotlib module. As of May 23, between 10% and 30% of voters in each county have requeted a mail in ballot for the June 2 primary (Ballots requested/Total Voters by county) 2/
While more than 1.5 million voters have received a mail-in ballot, some counties (like Bucks) have seen less than 1% of them returned. Some have seen over 50% returned (like Union County). 3/