Thread by @jonworth

So the CDU is postponing its party congress - scheduled for 4 December it now will not take place then, due to COVID

Reuters has a summary here:
uk.reuters.com/article/idUKKB…

#cdupt20

There are three candidates officially in the running to succeed AKK as leader of the CDU, and - as they see it - to succeed Merkel as Chancellor after the September 2021 election

Those running are:
@ArminLaschet
@_FriedrichMerz
@n_roettgen

Merz has been fast in blasting the decision to postpone, but - from a calculating perspective - I am not sure why

Laschet was the favourite back in the spring, but his star has been fading. The more Corona roars back, and the more Laschet wobbles in response, better for Merz

Laschet - as Ministerpräsident of Nordrhein Westfalen - has a responsibility for Corona response. Merz does not. So Merz can sit there and let Laschet make errors

Röttgen meanwhile - far and away the best of them in my view - is still sadly struggling to make much headway...

And of course there is the CSU's Söder waiting in the wings. Solid and responsible in the early part of the pandemic, he now faces the issue that Bayern (where he is Ministerpräsident) has some of the areas with the highest infection rates in the whole of the country

And the debated-but-not-official option - that Laschet decides not to run, making way for Spahn to be CDU leader and Söder to be the Chancellor candidate - is also in question, as Merz - untainted as a result of Corona - could break the whole deal

So - in short - I understand why postponing an actual event in a venue with 1001 delegates attending makes sense, postponing like this... might set a series of dominoes falling in ways the CDU cannot control

Merz winning as CDU leader could be a disaster, or could be a godsend for the opposition - as the Greens and SPD would not want to go into a coalition with him, meaning mainstream CDU voters moving to the SPD and its moderate candidate Scholz

Suspense!

Suspense!

tbc...

/ends