Serious question: what is the direct and short term impact of the US Election result on the UK's Brexit negotiations?
Why is this relevant?
US election is 3 Nov, UK-EU trade deal now only likely mid-November - i.e. afterwards
Why is this relevant?
US election is 3 Nov, UK-EU trade deal now only likely mid-November - i.e. afterwards
Trump wins: Johnson sees that a belligerent hardliner can win, despite it all, and the 🥕 of a UK-US Trade Deal is still there (yes, I know this wouldn't happen in reality, but you think Liz Truss et al care? It's the *idea* that matters)
Brexit impact: chances of No Deal ⬆️?
Brexit impact: chances of No Deal ⬆️?
Biden wins: Johnson has lost his main ally, Trump, and the prospect of a trade deal with the USA - short term - evaporates too. Biden will have other priorities than attending to the UK, and indeed friendship with Paris, Berlin, Brussels will be a higher priority
Biden wins, *and* Democrats manage to control the Senate: this can lead to more major changes in the way the USA behaves in geopolitics. Makes the UK position look even *more* lonely
Brexit impact: chances of No Deal ⬇️, as even Johnson realises he needs friends in Europe?
Brexit impact: chances of No Deal ⬇️, as even Johnson realises he needs friends in Europe?
Current Betfair probabilities:
Trump 36.4%
Biden 69.4%
Does all of that make sense? Are there factors that could push it the *other* way? But Biden winning makes a UK-EU Deal *more* likely I think...
/ends
Trump 36.4%
Biden 69.4%
Does all of that make sense? Are there factors that could push it the *other* way? But Biden winning makes a UK-EU Deal *more* likely I think...
/ends
P.S. This also assumes that the House of Lords can remove the offending parts of the Internal Market Bill, removing the issues with the NI Protocol (pointed out to me by @whvholst)
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