Jon Worth Profile picture
16 Oct, 23 tweets, 2 min read
Britain just go.
Go now.
Enough of the tantrums.
Enough of the histrionics.
Enough of the faux grandeur.
Enough of the disingenuous comparisons with Australia's and Canada's trade relationships with the EU.
Enough of trying to frame all this as the EU's fault, for it wasn't the EU that put forward the Internal Market Bill and want to renege on the NI Protocol.
Enough of the pettiness of Frost, the Chief Negotiator who seems unable to negotiate.
Enough of the smarmy trickery of Gove, saying the opposite now of what he said in 2016.
Enough of the tear-it-all-down radicalism of Cummings. Keep that on your island please.
And, above all, enough of the excruciating waffle and smirks of Johnson, a Prime Minister as inappropriate for these times as it is impossible to imagine.
And yes, No Deal is going to hurt. And hurt the UK in particular.
I don't want things to hurt.
But giving the UK anything more now is itself a danger.
So, sorrowfully, take this as a warning.
Turn your gardens and fields into truck parks.
Get used to herring with your chips, rather than cod.
Learn that an ill-governed 65 million people country with few friends and allies is not going to have a fun time negotiating with a 450 million people bloc that's well prepared and knows what it wants. Or indeed negotiating with anyone else for that matter.
Only when Britain gets its own politics in order is any of this going to begin to improve. And only the UK can do that for itself - that cannot be the EU's preoccupation. The EU cannot and should not bend to make up for the UK's inadequacies.
Maybe there might be a turnaround of some sort yet, but the chances of No Deal seem to be edging steadily upwards.
If that comes to pass, and you're in the UK, buckle up tight. Brace. Prepare yourself as well as you can. It is not going to be pleasant.



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More from @jonworth

7 Oct
This by @CSBarnard24 is excellent - about why the Commission is bringing a ECJ case against the UK…
There's just 1 issue that I wonder about...

When the Commission threatened legal action on 10 Sept, we thought the Lords would be done with the Internal Market Bill by end of Sept

Number 10 then decided to *not* push for a tight timetable
So the EU then had to use the Article 5 / good faith argument, because the Bill is still to be approved - so breach of the protocol cannot *yet* be used as an argument
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
It’s hard to think how @BLiberadzki @AdinaValean and the Council could have done any WORSE on #railpassengerrights - trialogue agreement today

1️⃣ Force majeure ⚡️🦠 provisions are so wide they’ll mean passengers get stuck and get compensated less - makes 🚊 LESS attractive
2️⃣ Through ticketing 🎫 provisions are ridiculously bad. Only apply to firms and their 100% subsidiaries. This brings no practical benefit *anywhere* and could lead to further erosion of availability of through tickets
3️⃣ That every train must carry 🚲 is a little bit of progress - but just 4 bikes per train is ridiculously low

4️⃣ Reduction of notification period to 24h for persons with reduced mobility 🦽 is a bit of progress - but there should be no notification AT ALL
Read 7 tweets
1 Oct
OK, so we now know the European Commission has sent a Letter of Notice to the UK, giving UK 1 month to respond...

...which is handily *after* the House of Lords has voted on the Internal Market Bill

Summed up in the new #BrexitDiagram V5.0.0
Note also: negotiations are *not* going to stop as a result of today's announcement, but do up the pressure on the House of Lords. Those changes are reflected in the diagram.
Also an acknowledgement of an error on my part in previous diagrams: I had *wrongly* assumed that as the tone from Brussels has been much more conciliatory for the past few weeks, the EU would *not* take legal action - and hence did not put a number on it...
Read 5 tweets
30 Sep
We're all tired of #Webinars

We've all had too many of them because of COVID and working from home
But we're all going to have to endure more of them in the next few months

So please, please folks - can we get better at them?

And I mean better in often pretty simple ways
First, if you are running a webinar, get your setup right

This is my desk - at home
Read 15 tweets
30 Sep
New #BrexitDiagram in light of news in the last 24h - that Tory rebellion on the Internal Markets Bill was very limited, and that rules of origin for 🚗🛠 are increasingly problematic in negotiations
Headline numbers
(compared with V4.0.0, 29.09.2020 1530)

No Deal - 53% (⬆️ 5%)
Minimal Deal - 38% (⬇️ 6%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (⬆️ 1%)

(A note on versioning: this is diagram V4.1.0 - it has all the same routes as V4.0.0, but probabilities have been changed)
Why the change?

Probability of an agreement on the substance by mid-October dropping

Probability Lords manages to adequately amend Internal Market Bill dropping (because Tories in Commons more united than expected)
Read 5 tweets
29 Sep
And thanks to excellent input from @laurensdk and @Usherwood there's already a new #BrexitReality

Series 5, V4.0.0

This one changes only the % very fractionally, but better covers the interplay between progress in Brussels and the IM Bill UK side Image
Headline numbers
(compared with V3.0.0, 29.09.2020 1030)

No Deal - 48% (⬇️ 1%)
Minimal Deal - 44% (⬆️ 1%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (↔️)

Changes mostly due to changed combinations of options in this diagram
Also - as ever - good and thoughtful feedback is very welcome! That was exactly what Simon and Laurens did, and I was happy to integrate their ideas into the diagram!
Read 5 tweets

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