Thread by @SimonWDC

10/26 #YouthVote thread, using @TargetSmart data:

18-39 voted so far
2016 4.6m
2020 11.8m

18-39s have seen their share of overall electorate increase from 17.2% to 21.1% - a 23% increase.

Bigger slice of bigger pie. Motivated electorate.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Increase in share of early vote from 2016 to 2020 of 18-39s, by state:

AZ +14
FL +11
GA +19
IA +9
MI +155
MN +52
NC +12
MN +11
OH +21
PA - 9
TX +21
WI +23

Some notes:

Polls have been predicting high young voter turnout this year, and we are seeing it so far in the early vote.

Big early youth vote allows Biden campaign to now target lower propensity youth voters they may never gotten to - increases likelihood of historic turnout.

2018 saw a very big youth turnout, and 18-29s were +35 for the Dems. Biden is seeing similar numbers. So youth turnout is way up so far, and it is much more Democratic than 2016. Millions of net new votes for Biden, Dems.

It's a big deal.

ndn.org/blog/2020/09/a…

Don't overthink the MI and PA data too much - they had very little early vote in 2016.

My guess is that we are seeing early stages of an historic young voter turnout. The new Harvard IOP poll out today (below) finds vote intent at 2008 levels. June @CivicYouth poll also found elevated civic engagement levels.

cc @MarkFeierstein

iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll

Given how big the early vote has been, expectation is that young people's share of it would have dropped - but it has risen. Combo of factors IMHO - COVID physical/econ disruption; protests; climate; Parkland movement; Trump's awfulness.

circle.tufts.edu/latest-researc…

In 2007 @peteleyden and I wrote this @MotherJones piece which predicted a leftward lean in young voters was going to make the country much more Dem/center-left. It's happened, and think we will really feel young voters in this election, years to come now. motherjones.com/politics/2007/…