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28 Oct, 6 tweets, 5 min read
Daily #youthvote thread, Wed Oct 28.

14.2m Gen Z/Millennials have turned out so far in 2020. In 2016 at this point it was 6m.

Gen Z/Millennial share of the early vote has gone from 18.3% at this point in 2016 to 22.2% today. That's a 21% increase.

Very good stories about the youth vote in @cnn @politico @usnews yesterday (see yesterday's thread). Today we have this really good one from @NBCNews:

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Moving our little youth data spreadsheet to the @CleanProsperous website (below). They are building it out a bit, adding raw vote totals, making it easier to use.

Thanks again to @tbonier @TargetSmart for providing all this great data.

cleanprosperousamerica.org/young-voter-tu…
Found this new analysis from @BrentJCohen @genprogress really helpful.

Seeing very strong youth turnout in GA, MN, NV, NC, PA, OH, TX. After a slow start, starting to see youth turnout in IA pick up. MN and TX are leading the pack.

You can drill down on key battleground state data here:

cleanprosperousamerica.org/young-voter-tu…
Great analysis here from @BenWessel on history of young voters voting late, and why it matters for 2020.

benwessel.medium.com/young-voters-e…

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Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
27 Oct
Daily #youthvote thread.

13.1m Gen Z/Millennials have turned out so far in 2020. In 2016 at this point it was 5.3m.

The Gen Z/Millennials share of the early vote has gone from 17.7 at this point in 2016 to 21.6 today. That's a 22% increase.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Insightful @lbarronlopez #youthvote story in Politico today.
Good read on #youthvote from the always sharp @MilliganSusan.

usnews.com/news/elections…
Read 9 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
26 Oct
10/26 #YouthVote thread, using @TargetSmart data:

18-39 voted so far
2016 4.6m
2020 11.8m

18-39s have seen their share of overall electorate increase from 17.2% to 21.1% - a 23% increase.

Bigger slice of bigger pie. Motivated electorate.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Increase in share of early vote from 2016 to 2020 of 18-39s, by state:

AZ +14
FL +11
GA +19
IA +9
MI +155
MN +52
NC +12
MN +11
OH +21
PA - 9
TX +21
WI +23
Some notes:

Polls have been predicting high young voter turnout this year, and we are seeing it so far in the early vote.

Big early youth vote allows Biden campaign to now target lower propensity youth voters they may never gotten to - increases likelihood of historic turnout.
Read 8 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
25 Oct
Youth vote update 10/25. 18-29 y/o early vote share % increase from 2016, via @TargetSmart:

US +27
AZ +19
FL +14
GA +22
IA +0
MI +121
MN +36
NC +15
NV +11
OH +16
PA -42
TX +40
WI +15

In the battlegrounds, there are 6 states where Gen Z and Millennials (18-39) are over 20% of the early vote:

TX 24.5%
MN 24%
NC 22.9%
GA 21.9%
NV 20.7%
PA 20.6%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
And in the new @dallasnews poll, which has Biden up 48-45 in Texas, his lead is being driven by an incredible performance with young people:

Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
23 Oct
Lots of data now to suggest youth vote highly motivated this election.

Using @TargetSmart's TargetEarly data 18-29 y/o share of early vote up 31% from 2016, a remarkable thing.

Youth much bigger slice of a much larger early vote pie. Not sure many saw that coming. (Thread)
Increase in 18-29 year old share of early vote in select states:

MI - 120%
TX - 55%
MN - 37%
FL - 35%
WI - 31%
GA - 21%
AZ - 19%
NC - 16%
OH - 15%
NV - 13%
At this point 4 years ago 1.2m 18-29 year olds had voted.

As of last night 3.9m 18-29 year olds had voted.

See this new study from @CivicYouth on the strong youth early vote - lots of good data. circle.tufts.edu/latest-researc…
Read 5 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
22 Oct
The daily struggle inside the Administration to prevent Trump's fantasy world view from doing too much harm to the country has been breaking out in the open quite a bit of late. Let's review a few examples:

politico.com/news/2020/10/2…
A bit hard to believe that Barr has become part of the insurgency, but apparently even he had lines he would not cross.

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
DOD continues to push back against Trump's Afghanistan strategy.....

nytimes.com/2020/10/12/wor…
Read 7 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
15 Oct
Given how many times Trump and Rudy had been warned by the IC this anti-Biden stuff was an effort by Putin to launder disinfo into US politics, and that our govt declared one of Rudy's top contact a Russian spy, it's hard not to review this busted op as something akin to treason.
As I was saying - the President and Rudy knowingly worked with Russia (again) to try to damage Biden even after they were told by the Intel Community it was a Russian op.

If treason isn't the right word for this, what is?

Need to remember that the two men working directly with Rudy and the President - Parnas and Fruman - were arrested last year, and that Parnas said their efforts to get Biden were directed by the President himself.

medium.com/@Simon_Rosenbe…
Read 6 tweets

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