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26 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
I can't pick one snippet to tweet from this @brianmrosenthal @mrothfeld story on the incompetence and nepotism at NYC's Board of Elections because each line makes me angrier than the one before it. Just read the whole thing.
nytimes.com/2020/10/26/nyr…
@brianmrosenthal @mrothfeld A city investigation found the Board of Elections was plagued by “illegality, inefficiency, laxity and waste" ... in 1940.

An NYT editorial called it “at best a semi‐functioning anachronism” ... in 1971.
In 1985, another city inquiry said the BOE had an “almost embarrassing lack of understanding” of its job.
And in 2013 an investigation found “illegalities, misconduct, and antiquated operations,” including that nearly 10% of employees were related to another staffer.

And yet nothing changed.

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More from @bencasselman

Ben Casselman Profile picture
27 Oct
On Thursday, @BEA_News will release its preliminary estimate for third-quarter economic growth. Given the timing, it's going to get a ton of attention. It also has the potential to be VERY misleading.

So! Time for a thread on the numbers and how the Times will be covering them:
I also covered much of this in the Times this morning: nytimes.com/2020/10/27/bus…

And here's our story ahead of the Q2 report: nytimes.com/2020/07/29/bus…
First off: Growth in Q3 was almost certainly the fastest on record. Forecasts expect a gain of around 7-8% from Q2 (30-35% annualized -- more about that in a bit). That's roughly 2x the 3.9% growth in the current "best quarter ever," Q1 of 1950.

BUT...
Read 22 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
3 Oct
The U.S. economy is facing a tidal wave of long-term unemployment as millions of people who lost jobs early in the pandemic remain out of work six months later and job losses increasingly turn permanent.

With @jeannasmialek @gillianreporter
nytimes.com/2020/10/03/bus…
Already, 2.4 million Americans have been out of work more than six months. Nearly 5 million more will join their ranks in the next couple months if they don't find jobs first. And history shows many of them will struggle to find jobs even when the economy recovers. Image
Meanwhile, a growing share of job losses are permanent rather than temporary, a sign that we are entering a new, slower phase of the recovery, with more lasting damage.
More on that from @Neil_Irwin here: nytimes.com/2020/10/03/ups… Image
Read 6 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
2 Oct
I'm seeing a lot of analysts arguing today's jobs numbers aren't so bad because the slowdown was driven by the late/partial reopening of schools.
A thread:
On the one hand, this is literally true: The August-September slowdown is less stark when you look at the private sector, and disappears more or less entirely if you also strip out private-sector education Image
It's also true that the drop in state/local employment is a result of seasonal adjustment -- on an unadjusted basis, employment rose (just much less than in a normal September). ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
2 Oct
Jobs day charts thread! (Will be adding gradually because I'm writing the main story today, which you can find here: nytimes.com/2020/10/02/bus…)
Even after the recent gains, we still have nearly 11 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic, and progress is slowing. By comparison, we lost 8.7 million jobs in the Great Recession. Image
The worst news in this report: The number of people reporting they have lost their jobs permanently (as opposed to being on temporary layoff/furlough) rose again. Evidence of mounting long-run damage to the economy.
nytimes.com/live/2020/10/0… Image
Read 15 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
1 Oct
Nearly 800,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week (regular state programs, not seasonally adjusted). Note that that figure uses a placeholder for California because of the two week pause on filings in that state.
dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
Meanwhile, personal income fell in August as extra unemployment benefits expired. Consumer spending rose, but more slowly than in prior months.
How can spending be going up while income is going down? Americans are saving less -- although savings are still well above pre-pandemic levels.
Read 6 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
28 Sep
I know it's not what we're all focused on today, but the Fed is out with the Survey of Consumer Finances -- its once-every-three-years snapshot of Americans' finances. This data is for *2019*, so it's a look back in time to life before the pandemic.
nytimes.com/2020/09/28/bus…
The incomparable @jeannasmialek has our story, which has the key numbers and analysis. So start there! I'm still looking through the report, and will offer a few other tidbits in the thread below as I go.
Full data is here: federalreserve.gov/econres/scfind…
The biggest takeaway for me: Strong labor markets are good! The decade-long expansion brought the unemployment rate to its lowest level in half a century, and the result was rising incomes and rising net worth for low- and middle-income households. Image
Read 10 tweets

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