1) Three weeks after Quebec required high school students to wear masks all day in red zones, Premier François Legault announced Monday Grade 9 students will join those in Grades 10 and 11 in learning online at home one out of two days. In this thread, I'll examine this measure.
2) Legault held his news conference at 5 p.m. after the Education Ministry released its latest statistics revealing 52 more #COVID19 cases in schools since Friday, 11 more shuttered classes and three more schools with confirmed infections. See the chart below.
3) For its part, covidecolesquebec.org reported Monday night 32 more schools with at least one positive case among students or staff since Sunday. After the number of #COVID19 cases in schools dropped a week ago, the latest figures appear to indicate an upswing.
4) The Premier noted an increase in cases among older students, the reason behind the decision to have those in Grade 9 switch to online learning one out of every two weekdays. But for the sake of consistency and out of prudence, why not extend the rule to all high school grades?
5) Germany announced last week it will invest 500 million Euros to upgrade ventilation in public offices, universities and schools to fight the #coronavirus. In contrast, Quebec is spending $50 million, or 3% of Germany’s budget. Germany's population is 10 times Quebec's.
6) I’m alluding to Germany, a country the Premier cited often last spring to compare with Quebec. On Monday, however, he compared Quebec with France, which recorded 52,000 cases and 116 deaths the previous day. In contrast, Quebec’s 808 cases and 10 deaths look far less grim.
7) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 207 #COVID19 cases Monday, up from 146 the previous day, as the orange line in the chart below indicates. The city’s seven-day incidence also crept up to 113.52 cases per million population, proving the #coronavirus is still a menace in the city.
8) At the neighborhood level, efforts to contain the virus in the city centre appear to be working. Public-health SWAT teams have visited Parc-Extension. For two days running, the health district of Côte-des-Neiges, downtown and Parc-Ex have posted daily numbers under a dozen.
9) However, the Premier observed that #COVID19 outbreaks remain a problem in the workplace, citing a major one at a meat-processing plant. For these reasons, public health restrictions will remain in place for another four weeks, a truly prudent decision. End of thread.
Addendum: I miscalculated in tweet number 5. Quebec, representing 10.2% of Germany’s population, is spending what would amount to 6.4% of Germany’s budget to improve ventilation in schools. Thanks to a sharp-eyed reader for spotting this. My apologies.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

29 Oct
1) Montreal’s #COVID19 testing positivity rate has increased to 5.6% from 5.2% last week, signalling that the #pandemic's second wave is far from over in the city. A couple of boroughs are reporting rates as high as 7.6% In this thread, I will try to explain what this means.
2) By comparison, the city of Boston’s positivity rate jumped to 5.7% last week from 4.5% a week earlier, prompting authorities to close all public schools. This raises the question as to why Quebec has not imposed more restrictions on Montreal schools. Image
3) On Monday, Premier François Legault did require that Grade 9 students in high schools in red zones like Montreal learn online at home one out of two days a week. Legault did so as the number of active #COVID19 cases has risen steadily in schools across the province.
Read 10 tweets
28 Oct
1) Montreal on Tuesday reported mixed results in the #pandemic, with #COVID19 cases increasing, but the number of outbreaks in the workplace dropping from a week ago. In this thread, I will try to make sense of these conflicting trends during the second wave.
2) The chart below released late Tuesday afternoon by the Montreal public health department shows that 196 workers have tested positive for the #coronavirus, down by 50 from Oct. 20. What’s more, the number of #COVID19 clusters has decreased by 10 to 58. Image
3) The workplace category that is observing the most dramatic drop (13 fewer outbreaks) includes restaurants, bars, gyms, hotels, motels and temporary employment agencies. That stands to reason, since the government closed restos, bars and gyms on Oct. 1.
Read 10 tweets
26 Oct
1) Has Montreal already experienced the worst of the second wave? Is it even fair to ask this question with #COVID19 still surging in the Capitale-Nationale and Chaudière-Appalaches? In this thread, I will nonetheless attempt to provide a nuanced response.
2) Montreal on Sunday posted its lowest daily tally in 33 days, 146 new #COVID19 cases, as the descending orange line in the chart below shows. The city’s seven-day average was down to 112.48 cases per million population compared with a rate of 126.32 a week ago.
3) At the neighborhood level, Montreal’s #COVID19 hotspot in the second wave — the centre of the city, including Côte-des-Neiges, downtown and Parc-Extension — posted fewer than eight cases, while the West Island health district of Pierrefonds-Lac Saint-Louis identified far more.
Read 10 tweets
25 Oct
1) With less than a week left before the month's end, Quebec posted on Saturday more #COVID19 deaths in October (259) than the previous three months combined (229), underscoring the lethality of the #pandemic’s second wave. In this thread, I'll examine fatalities by age group.
2) First, let me emphasize that any life cut short because of #COVID19 — whatever the age — is a death that should have been prevented and is therefore tragic. But in my analysis of the data I’ve come across some noteworthy findings, which I believe are worth sharing.
3) There’s an age group that is gaining in its share of the total number of #pandemic deaths: people in their 70s. Two months ago, the 70-to-79 demographic comprised 17.9% of all such deaths. On Saturday, that share crept up to 18.2% — or 15 more deaths and 1,115 in total.
Read 9 tweets
24 Oct
1) Has the emergency room of Santa Cabrini Hospital become the canary in the #COVID19 mine in Montreal? On Friday, the east-end hospital urged people to avoid going to its ER following an outbreak among four staff. In this thread, I will concentrate on the city’s ER predicament. Image
2) During the #pandemic's first wave, Montreal’s ERs were eerily quiet as people stayed away in droves. But during the second wave, that's no longer the case. Santa Cabrini’s ER was still filled to beyond capacity Friday night despite its public appeal for people to stay away. Image
3) City ERs are treating more walk-in patients with #COVID19. It’s not a high number, but there are cases. And with congested ERs, it becomes harder to separate infected patients from those who aren’t. What’s concerning about Santa Cabrini's cluster is it occurred among ER staff.
Read 10 tweets
23 Oct
1) Montreal crossed the threshold of 40,000 #COVID19 cases Thursday, a number that's higher than the tallies of Greece (28,216) and Hong Kong (5,281) combined. In this thread, I'll try to show how the #pandemic is wreaking havoc not only in the city but more so across Quebec.
2) Premier François Legault was more somber than he's been in days reporting the addition of 20 #COVID19 fatalities to Quebec’s toll of 6,094. The chart below shows 10 deaths in the past 24 hours at the CHSLD St-Augustin in Beauport, an eldercare home I wrote about yesterday.
3) It appears that the talk of how Quebec’s long-term care centres (CHSLDs) may have been spared during the #pandemic's second wave is premature, given that Health Minister Christian Dubé has dispatched so-called SWAT teams to four CHSLDs to contain their #COVID19 outbreaks.
Read 10 tweets

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